Surviving Week 10
Last week was a brutal one as our top pick, the Eagles simply didn't show up against a very game Bears squad. The Raiders, Chiefs and Pats also took down some entrants as well. If you had the Cowboys, Texans or Falcons, you didn't have to sweat it out much. Let's take a look at this week's slate:
|Team ||Opponent ||% Picked* ||Vegas ML** ||Vegas Odds
|EAGLES ||Cardinals ||65.20% ||925 ||90%
|PACKERS ||Vikings ||11.20% ||700 ||88%
|Ravens ||SEAHAWKS ||9.20% ||275 ||73%
|CHARGERS ||Raiders ||5.90% ||290 ||74%
|Jaguars ||COLTS ||1.80% ||155 ||61%
|DOLPHINS ||Redskins ||1.30% ||185 ||65%
|CHIEFS ||Broncos ||1.20% ||160 ||62%
|PANTHERS ||Titans ||1.00% ||175 ||64%
|COWBOYS ||Bills ||0.60% ||220 ||69%
Home Team in CAPS
* according to OfficeFootballPools.com
** average of the two moneylines
1. Green Bay Packers
If by some miracle you haven't used them already, the Packers are the best pick. Not only are they heavily favored, but only 11.2 percent of the field is on them. The Vikings could give them a game - they're division rivals that know each other well, and Christian Ponder
is already a big upgrade from Donovan McNabb
. But they're far safer than anyone but the Eagles, and the Eagles are oversubscribed. I give the Packers an 84 percent chance to win this game.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Seattle's a tough place to play, and the Ravens could be in for a letdown after their big win in Pittsburgh Sunday night. But Baltimore's defense should give Seattle serious problems, and given that only 9.2 percent of the field is on them, they're the pot odds play over Philly. I give the Ravens a 72 percent chance to win this game.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
The conventional wisdom is that the Eagles will bounce back after their embarrassing home loss to the Bears on Monday night, especially against a doormat like Arizona that's likely playing without its starting quarterback. Maybe that will in fact come to pass, but consider that Arizona played Baltimore tough two weeks ago before winning last week against the Rams. And consider that the Eagles were exposed on both sides of the ball in their loss to the Bears. Still, it's hard to imagine Philly won't play with renewed focus, and John Skelton
is unlikely to be up to the task. I give the Eagles a 90 percent chance to win this game. But due to the huge percentage of the field on them, they're my third choice. (Since I used the Packers and Ravens in my one remaining pool, I'm taking the Eagles).
4. Kansas City Chiefs
Only in case of desperation, but if you've used up the top three, the Chiefs strike me as the best option among the rest at home against a Denver team that doesn't play much defense and doesn't pass the ball particularly well. I give the Chiefs a 65 percent chance to win this game.
San Diego Chargers
- the pot odds say to take the Chargers or Cowboys, but that's only if you believe Vegas' numbers for them. I actually think both these games are closer to 60/40 in which case the Eagles are ahead of them. The Chargers are capable of losing in so many different ways, and the Raiders are likely to show up after an absence against the Broncos.
- The Cowboys have been a heartless team for the last several years, while the Bills never seem to give up, even last week when they were dominated by the Jets. I don't care about the talent disparity or the venue - I'm staying away.