Projections vs. Predictions
We raised this topic last week on the Sirius XM show, and it got a good response. The question was whether we want our fantasy pundits giving us projections, i.e., probability-based expected-return answers, or specific predictions of how things will actually go. For example, if you ask whether to start Cam Newton or Andy Dalton this week, I could answer: "I give Newton a 60 percent chance to outperform Dalton." Or I could just say: "Go Newton, I expect him to have a monster game." Which answer is preferable?
On its face, the easy answer is the former – give us the odds, and let the chips fall. Unless your favorite pundit has psychic powers, the best he can do for you is tell you what the past data indicates and provide you with an accurate reading of what the most likely outcomes are. In the short run, there's no guarantee of being right, but over time, going with better probabilities is always going to yield bett
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