Looking at Early-Year ADP to Determine Value
There aren't many tools in the fantasy owner's arsenal more valuable than Average Draft Position (ADP). Mock drafts are fun, but they can actually be harmful to owners. In any draft, certain players have a range in which they could potentially get drafted based on how the draft unfolds. Fantasy football drafts often create a butterfly effect of sorts; change a single selection or replace just one owner, and the results of any particular draft can be drastically altered.
When you participate in or view a mock draft, the majority of players will be selected comfortably within their "range of possible outcomes," i.e. they'll be at or near their "average" spot. Some players, however, will be in outlying positions near the high or low end of their pre-draft ranges. If you participate in a draft in which Aaron Rodgers drops into the third round, for example, you'll likely be an unhappy owner if you expect to wait to gr
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