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The Stats Room: Zman's QB Projections

Jeff Zimmerman

Zimmerman writes analytics-focused baseball and football articles for RotoWire. He also handles scouting and reporting for PrepBaseballReport.com and contributes to RoyalsReview.com, FanGraphs.com and BaseballHeatMaps.com. Jeff is also a two time FSWA award winner, including the 2016 Football Writer of the Year award.

Creating these simple quarterback projections (The Zman's) ended up being a little harder than expected, but they're done. They are simple, non-context projections on how a non-rookie quarterback is expected to perform. While other factors will contribute to their production, these projections provide a great baseline for a quarterback's ability.

For the projections, I wanted to create a projection system similar to Marcels in which Tom Tango created for baseball players.

As Tom describes it, "... uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey."

I went with the same approach with just a tad more detail in the weights and regression. The basic procedure ...

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