Individual sports and team sports don't have much in common, but the goal is the same (just win) and occasionally the mindset is the same (now or never). That's the way it is now for Reshuffle List players on the PGA Tour. They know it's do or die - play well in these two weeks and they have a shot at $10 million. Don't, and they may not have a PGA Tour card for 2014-15 and will have to win it back at the Web.com Tour Finals.
Two weeks from the end of the regular season, here's how things look.
Safe and Sound for 2014-15 (ranging 42-109 in FedEx Cup points):
We need to correct the record. What would secured a tour card for next season is a pure guess every year, but this year especially. With fall events counting in the FedEx Cup for the first time, no one knew what the magic number would be. Friend and colleague Shoshana Agus-Kleinman pegged the number at 390-400 and it seemed pretty reasonable. However - especially in a season of parity - that hasn't happened. Instead, the player in 125th on the FedEx Cup points list, Sang-Moon Bae, has 410 points. So who is safe and who is not? We're going to be conservative in our predictions, even with most players from about 115 and on probably safe.
Will MacKenzie - 919.900 points
Russell Knox - 885.066
Ben Martin - 788.833
Ryo Ishikawa - 679.880
Billy Hurley III - 630.209
Andrew Svoboda - 603.470
Kevin Kisner - 509.583
Tim Wilkinson - 493.575
Danny Lee - 489.500
Troy Merritt - 481.500
Ricky Barnes - 474.038
Note to fantasy owners: need a playoff sleeper? Try MacKenzie. He ranks 19th in the all-around ranking.
Probably In/On the Cusp:
Brice Garnett 451.280 points
Garnett is 114th in the standings and probably needs a made cut next week just to be sure that he has a ticket on the PGA Tour in 2014-15.
Need a Strong Wyndham Championship (Ranking 139th-145th in FedEx Cup points):
Bud Cauley - 357.230 points
Tyrone Van Aswegen - 354.580
Trevor Immelman - 353.723
Hudson Swafford - 348.250
Jim Renner - 345.797
Andrew Loupe - 336.500
The player to watch here is Immelman. A major champion who had three top-25 finishes early in his season, he has 14 missed cuts in 27 starts. Immelman has the inner moxie to put together a strong finish at Greensboro compared to some of his lesser experienced colleagues in the same spot.
Barely Inside the Top 200:
No one is within 10 spots of 200th. Miguel Angel Carballo is the nearest at 189th on the FedEx Cup points list.
Barely Outside the Top 200:
Lee Williams - 73.750 points, 201st
Alex Prugh - 72.400, 203rd
Kevin Foley - 60.790, 207th
Of these players, Prugh has the most recent success, tying for 37th last month at the John Deere Classic. Foley has had problems putting solid 18-hole rounds together, while Williams hasn't played on the PGA Tour since June.
One Other Note
Much has been reported about how Tiger Woods needs to win this week at the PGA Championship to make the FedEx Cup Playoffs and make the Ryder Cup team. Much has also been said about how Tom Watson may want him to go to the Web.com Tour Finals to keep his game sharp if he wants him as a captain's pick as the Ryder Cup is more than six weeks away. And while the PGA Tour confirmed that Tiger would have that option, there's just one problem with that: Tiger isn't in the Top 200 at the moment. He enters this week 217th, with 45 points; 200th has 74 points. So unless he makes the cut and makes a bit of a move up the leaderboard this week, or adds Greensboro (which with his shaky health seems unlikely), that option may not be available for Woods and Watson.