What's in a sleeper? There's a tendency in fantasy circles these days to push that term out, remarking instead on "undervalued" or "breakout" players. It amounts to the same thing – except that once you get that "sleeper" tag in black and white, those players inevitably embark on the path to trendiness in drafts. It starts with the late picks that make owners say, "Oh, man, I forgot about him!" and ends with those same owners bending to the buzz and reaching for sleepers early.
So remember the most important part about these guys: As exciting as they are, and as much faith as you or I may have in them, drafting is all about value. If the breakout is priced into what you pay at the table, you're going to find that your one-time sleeper ends up having more downside than upside. At the end of the day, we're paying for points, not names or excitement. Keep in mind, too, that format is everything; this list is oriented toward 12-team CBS head-to-head points leagues, and CBS uses rankings loosely based on my own projections -- that means the guys I like are already generally ranked pretty high. A list of my ESPN or Yahoo sleepers might be much bigger, but it'd probably include these guys as well.
Centers
Ryan O'Reilly, BUF – You'll find O'Reilly buried in the center rankings, but it would hardly be a surprise to see the 24-year-old leap back into the top 20 this year. Plus-minus could be an issue on a Sabres team that's still looking for stability on defense and in goal, but O'Reilly is in prime position to bounce back as the No. 1 center on this team under new coach Dan Bylsma. Jack Eichel may get all the hype – and I believe in him as much as anyone – but O'Reilly is going to see big minutes and top-unit power-play time from Day 1, and I think he's still got another gear yet. This is a guy you can probably pick outside the top 100 on draft day (he went No. 97 in RotoWire's recent experts mock), but he's a lock for 50-plus points, with 60-plus looking like a very real possibility, especially if the Sabres can find a way to get him and Eichel on the ice at the same time.
Evgeny Kuznetsov, WAS – Even further down the list than O'Reilly, you'll find the uber-talented Kuznetsov. The North American game has been an adjustment process for the young Russian, but he came on strong at the end of last season, and his total of 37 points, while modest, is very impressive for a guy who averaged only 13:20 of ice time with second-unit power-play minutes. He'll get the opportunity to center Alex Ovechkin for the first five or 10 games of this year while Nicklas Backstrom's recovery from offseason hip surgery lingers into the early weeks of the campaign, and that combined with what should be an uptick in overall ice time as well as a prospective promotion to the top man-advantage unit should have his star rising rapidly. He won't likely displace Backstrom once the veteran pivot is healthy, but could end up being moved to the wing to skate alongside the Caps' superstar duo. That's a lot of upside for a guy you can get toward the back end of your draft, though his stock is of course rising thanks to the Backstrom injury.
Wingers
Sergei Plotnikov, PIT – It's not often that a Penguin flies under the radar in fantasy circles, but Plotnikov has come to America with a lot of question marks and fairly little hype after six seasons in the KHL. It's unknown where the 25-year-old will play, but considering Evgeni Malkin played a major role in getting him to come across the pond, it's not inconceivable that the two could have a Russian connection on the second line. Plotnikov doesn't exactly have to overcome great hurdles to be one of the Pens' top two left wingers – Chris Kunitz turns 36 this coming weekend and is coming off a highly disappointing campaign, Pascal Dupuis is 36 as well, and David Perron's career has been full of ups and downs. For his part, Plotnikov made two All-Star appearances during his days in Russia, and he brings a strong combination of size, skill and grit to the ice. A lot will depend on his line assignment, but if Plotnikov does indeed get to play alongside Malkin, he could take off. In a way, he represents a potential turning point in the NHL-KHL dynamic; Plotnikov's success (or lack thereof) could strongly influence the "defection rate," so to speak, of Russia's young stars.
David Pastrnak, BOS – In a lot of leagues, Pastrnak could go undrafted. After all, you're looking for that guaranteed 50-plus points at the wing, and there's some uncertainty relating to the 19-year-old Czech's line assignment, never mind whether he can keep up the level of play he showed us in a 46-game sample with the Bruins last season. Don't sleep on him in your league – be sure to use one of your last picks on Pastrnak, who's been skating with the top forward lines early on in camp. This is a guy who averaged more than a point per game in the AHL last year, then picked up 27 in 46 games with the Bruins (that's a 48-point pace) despite averaging less than 14 minutes of ice time and only inconsistent power-play time. He's going to be a much bigger part of this year's team. Take advantage.
Defensemen
Erik Karlsson, OTT – Yes, I'm calling Erik Karlsson, the top blueliner in the NHL, a sleeper. Why? Well, if you play on CBS, you know that defensive scoring is more valuable than forward scoring. Even in formats where defensemen don't get point bonuses, a 60-point man on the blue line has much more relative value than a 70-point forward. That in mind, Karlsson should be a consensus top-10 (if not top-five) pick, but that hasn't generally been the case in drafts. You can always find quality forwards late in your draft; as far as 20-goal, 60-to-70-point blueliners go, there's pretty much just one.
Justin Schultz, EDM – You'll find a lot of promising young defenders buried deep in the rankings, but Schultz's name sticks out. While he's disappointed since signing with the Oilers, posting ratings no better than minus-17 in each of the last three seasons with a high of 33 points in 2013-14, this presents a good time to buy Schultz at the nadir of his value. Edmonton's got a new coach in Todd McLellan and a new future superstar in Connor McDavid – two assets that should be very helpful to Schultz, who's seemed at times to take on a sort of "I can do it all myself" mentality. Remember, we're talking about one of the best offensive defensemen to come out of college in decades, not to mention a guy who put up a simply ridiculous – you might say Karlsson-esque – 48 points in his 34 games at the AHL level. (And this was during the lockout-shortened year – plenty of NHLers on that ice.) The 25-year-old is a fantastic shooter, but I'm looking for McLellan to dial back Schultz's all-or-nothing tendencies and emphasize puck distribution, especially on the power play, where his passing skills should play spectacularly well on the back end of a top unit that'll include McDavid and Jordan Eberle.
Goalies
Cam Talbot, EDM – In points leagues, workload is often important than results; wins are well and good, but goalies get plenty of points just for racking up saves. The Oilers should still give up a good number of shots, and they didn't trade for Talbot just to give him a timeshare with Ben Scrivens. He'll be this team's No. 1 netminder, meaning 55-plus starts, and though you can certainly expect last season's sparkling ratios to take a significant dip – after all, the Rangers are one of the more defensively responsible teams in the league, making them the polar opposite of what Edmonton fans have experienced the last several years – Talbot should pile up a terrific raw total of saves, making him an eminently playable netminder for our purposes.
Martin Jones, SJ – San Jose offers perhaps an even more favorable situation for fantasy owners, as the Sharks imported Jones this offseason with the express purpose of having him be Antti Niemi's direct replacement as the No. 1 netminder. Alex Stalock has already been ticketed for the backup role, meaning Jones will get all the starts he can handle this year. It'll be interesting to see how holds up over the long haul, considering that Jones has never faced an NHL starter's workload before and only appeared in 15 games last season, but there are few young goalies as intriguing as this undrafted 25-year-old. Sure, his save mark last year was just .906, but the Kings didn't do him many favors and the sample size was quite limited, so don't judge him on that. (To highlight the differences sample sizes can make with goalies, if Jones had stopped just three more pucks from going in the net last year, his save mark would have been .915). The Sharks may be coming off a disappointing season that ended a decade-long run of annually making the playoffs, but they've got a ton of young talent and could bounce right back this year despite prematurely being written off in the preseason. Jones won't just get you a pile of saves – he'll pick up wins, too.
