This article is part of our MMA Barometer series.
Has there ever been a more exciting time for martial arts? The emergence of the UFC and sport of mixed martial arts has aided its growth, and martial arts have probably grown more in the last 20 years than they did in the previous 200. The skill level of fighters has improved drastically, the UFC has blown up as a mainstream sports organization, and new fighting techniques are being created every day. A legitimate competitor, Bellator MMA, has emerged to challenge the UFC for free agent fighters as well as TV ratings. This competition can only increase the growth of the sport, which is beneficial to both companies. However, with growth and legitimacy come more strict regulations and mainstream media. Two great examples are the Reebok deal (more on that another time) and the new UFC Fighter Conduct Policy.
The new UFC Fighter Conduct Policy is revolutionary for the sport. The UFC will finally adopt the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) regulations while testing fighters for banned substances. This is undoubtedly a great move for the sport. Stricter testing and more severe penalties will reduce the amount of fighters who take performance enhancing drugs, which gives them a distinct, unfair advantage over opponents who choose not to use banned substances. The more strict policy will also surely add fighters to the "Falling" portion of this column. Some fighters who have historically abused performance-enhancing drugs will choose to stop taking them to avoid the severe penalties, but their performance in the Octagon may suffer. Others who have never taken performance-enhancing drugs may see a rise in their performance as the playing field is leveled. Either way, the stricter UFC drug policy is a landmark decision for the entire sport, and makes it so clean fighters have an even playing field. It will also make for entertaining additions to all categories of this column. Even though the policy is highly beneficial to the sport, it contains one very concerning rule.
USADA policy does not allow for fighters to rehydrate with IV bags that are over 50 mL after weigh-ins. This is a big adjustment for UFC fighters, as many cut a significant amount of weight and immediately rehydrate with multiple bags of saline. Fighters like Gleison Tibau, who cuts to the 155 pound lightweight limit from somewhere around 190 pounds, will have difficulty cutting such a substantial amount of weight. For instance, Tibau is used to rehydrating after weighing in at 155 pounds, so much so that he can step into the Octagon as heavy as 185. This will probably be difficult to achieve without the assistance of IV bags. The impact of this policy will be two-fold. First, fighters may hesitate to cut as much weight. They will know they cannot rehydrate as easily, so there could be fighters who move up a weight class to avoid going into a fight dehydrated and more susceptible to gassing out or getting knocked out. Second, and most worrisome, is the amount of brutal knockouts and concussions may increase. There is extensive research which supports the theory that a dehydrated brain is more susceptible to being concussed. This could eventually have a long term impact on the health of fighters if they continuously go into fights dehydrated and suffer severe head trauma. In an interview with Zane Simon of BloodyElbow.com, Nutrition guru Mike Dolce voiced his concern of the new rule, saying that if IV bags were banned it would, "Be the worst possible day in MMA because you will see a lot of very serious brain injuries as a result of that." Fortunately USADA has given a grace period until October 1st for fighters to use IV bags over 50 mL, so they will have time to adjust or decide whether they can continue to cut as much weight. Even though the new UFC Fighter Conduct Policy is revolutionary and overall beneficial to the sport of mixed martial arts, the policy that bans IV bags over 50 mL after weigh-ins is worrisome as it could lead to severe injuries inside the Octagon. The policy will also have an effect on the athletes mentioned in this column, as fighters who cut a substantial amount of weight may take time to adjust to new hydration methods. Moreover, they may simply decide to move to a different weight class where they do not hold such a significant size advantage at the time of the fight.
For now, here is a list of rising and falling stocks within the UFC at this time. There are plenty more fighters who could fit in any of the three categories, but we'll save them for another day.
Rising
Donald CerroneThe most obvious name on this list. Cerrone is on an incredible eight-fight winning streak, tied for the third longest in UFC history (Fightmatrix.com). He is the No. 2-ranked UFC lightweight and will most likely challenge Rafael Dos Anjos for the lightweight belt in the fourth quarter of 2015. Cowboy's effective striking gives him a distinct advantage over his opponent, especially when paired with his 69 percent takedown defense. When Cerrone is able to keep the fight on the feet, he has a unique ability to break down his opponent and either finish the fight or win a unanimous decision. This will be an interesting style comparison if dos Anjos is able to maintain the form he showcased against Anthony Pettis, where he mixed striking with effective takedowns to punish Pettis for five rounds. If Dos Anjos is able to get Cerrone to the ground, Cerrone is also comfortable both attacking and defending from his back. Cerrone is a dangerous fighter wherever the fight takes place, and he has a solid chance to continue his hot streak against dos Anjos.
Next fight: Rafael dos Anjos, TBA
Fabricio Werdum
In one of the best performances of his career, Werdum captured the UFC Heavyweight Championship against Cain Velasquez on June 13th. Werdum has not lost in six fights since he returned to the UFC in February 2012. He has continued to evolve as a mixed martial artist and refined his striking game to pair with his devastating grappling ability. Werdum has arguably the best submissions in the UFC, and he will pose a significant challenge to any opponent who attempts to fight him on the ground. His next fight will likely be against Stipe Miocic, Andrei Arlovski, or Velasquez. Miocic and Arlovski will test Werdum's striking, but if he continues to improve at the age of 37 under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro (and even if he doesn't), Werdum has a good chance to continue his winning streak and defend the championship. If there is a rematch against Velasquez, the rationale could be that Velasquez will not run out of gas when he fights at sea level instead of at an elevation of 7,382 feet in Mexico City, but are you going to bet against Werdum after his three-round destruction of Velasquez at UFC 188?
Next Fight: TBA
Max Holloway
Holloway has exploded on a six-fight win streak since his loss to Conor McGregor in 2013. His latest win was against Cub Swanson at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Rockhold, a victory that was both shocking and impressive. At the time, Holloway outstruck Swanson, an experienced boxer and the No. 5-ranked UFC featherweight, landing 82 significant strikes to Swanson's 56 before submitting him in the third round. Holloway will look to continue his streak in the main event of UFC Fight Night on August 23 against Charles Oliveira. It will be an interesting contrast of styles, as Holloway will look to employ his talented striking to counter the dangerous Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu of Oliveira. Holloway's 78 percent takedown defense will be an effective weapon to keep the fight on the feet and pick apart Oliveira. Holloway is only 23 years old and keeps growing as a mixed martial artist. If he is able to continue his win streak against Oliveira on August 23, Holloway should propel himself into the title picture atop the division with Frankie Edgar, Chad Mendes, Conor McGregor, and Jose Aldo.
Next Fight: Charles Oliveira, UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Oliveira (August 23, 2015)
Neil Magny
Magny has been on as quiet of a seven-fight win streak as there can be. Magny, who has not lost since November 2013, possesses an advanced ground game and can effectively pass his opponent's guard when he has top position. In his last fight against Hyun Gyu Lim at UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. Faber, Magny was able to take Lim to the ground and easily achieve full mount en route to a TKO victory in the second round. Magny's ground game will likely be put to the test against Demian Maia at UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia. Maia is a large welterweight who was once a title contender in the middleweight (185-pound) division, and will likely attempt to use his size and clinch Magny against the fence, and then attempt to take Magny down. It will be up to Magny to defend the takedown and keep the fight on the feet or risk being on the ground with Maia, one of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in the UFC. If the fight is contested on the feet, Magny should have an advantage even though his striking does not boast tremendous knockout power. One advantage Magny has going into the fight is his training environment. Magny trains at Grudge Training Center in Colorado with fellow UFC welterweight Brandon Thatch, who is a big welterweight and similar in size to Maia (even though Thatch's grappling skill is far below Maia, as Benson Henderson proved). Magny also has the benefit of training under universally respected head trainer Trevor Wittman. Wittman has trained fighters such as Donald Cerrone and Shane Carwin, and he brings a wealth of knowledge to training that can help Magny continue developing as a mixed martial artist. Demian Maia will be the toughest test of Magny's career and poses a real threat to Magny's seven fight win streak.
Next Fight: Demian Maia, UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia (August 1st, 2015)
Check Status
Frankie EdgarEdgar continues to dominate high-level competition, but does not have any higher to rise in the division. "The Answer" is on a four-fight win streak with dominant victories over the likes of B.J. Penn, Cub Swanson, and Urijah Faber. Despite these victories, Edgar is continuously deprived of a chance to avenge his defeat to UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo. With the rise of Conor McGregor and the rib injury that forced Aldo to pull out of his July 11 title defense against the Irish challenger, Edgar seems as far as ever from a title shot after being passed up as the replacement to fight McGregor for the interim featherweight championship. Now, McGregor will fight Chad Mendes, and the winner of that fight will fight Jose Aldo once Aldo is healthy (presumably fall of 2015). Edgar defeated Faber on May 16, so if he intends to wait for a title shot he could potentially be without a fight until 2016. Edgar could choose to take a fight before that, but would it be worth it to risk losing the opportunity to win a UFC title?
Next Fight: TBA
Joseph Benavidez
Benavidez is in a tough position. He is the No. 2-ranked flyweight in the UFC, but he has lost twice to flyweight champion Demetrius Johnson. It will be difficult for him to get another title shot as new challengers emerge, which showed when John Dodson was given a second opportunity at Johnson's belt after a somewhat underwhelming decision victory over Zach Mokovsky. Benavidez and Dodson fought on the same card that night, both won, but Dodson was awarded the title shot. Benavidez's only option is to continue to pile up victories and wait for his title opportunity. He is on a three-fight win streak and is one of the most complete mixed martial artists in the flyweight division. Whether the fight is contested on the feet or on the ground, Benavidez is comfortable. He possesses good knockout power and has excellent submissions, as is expected of a member of Team Alpha Male. Benavidez seems to be stuck in the same position and must continue to win. He last fought in May, so it should be a short time before we find out who his next fight is against. Both Jussier Formiga (No. 3) and Henry Cejudo (No. 5) fought within a month of Benavidez, so a title eliminator is possible between Benavidez and either Formiga or Cejudo.
Next Fight: TBA
Falling
Gilbert MelendezA loser of three of his last four fights, Melendez has hit a string of bad luck. Along with losing his last fight to Eddie Alvarez, Melendez failed a post-fight drug test. Per the new UFC Fighter Conduct Policy, Melendez is now suspended from competition for one year. Even though he has fought against quality competition in his last four fights (two title fights, former Bellator lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez, and UFC veteran Diego Sanchez), Melendez is on the wrong side of 30 years old and now faces an entire year away from competition. Melendez has a brawler's mentality, as was shown in his thrilling slugfest with Diego Sanchez, and also relies on a physical, grinding ground attack. As he gets older, Melendez may have difficulty implementing this game plan if/when he loses his chin. Once he comes back from his suspension, we will get an accurate picture of the fighter Gilbert Melendez will be as he ages. Will he regain the form he enjoyed as Strikeforce lightweight champion, or will Melendez be a shell of himself as he was against Eddie Alvarez?
Next Fight: Suspended for one year
Travis Browne
Travis Browne has some of the most fearsome power in the UFC heavyweight division, but his recent performances coupled with other circumstances have made Browne's career take a significant downturn. Brown has lost two of his last three bouts, including one fight to newly-crowned UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum. His last fight is a fight-of-the-year candidate, but Browne came out on the wrong end of a brawl which ended in a TKO loss to an aging fighter in Andrei Arlovski. Arlovski is on a three-fight win streak, but it is discouraging that Browne's chin did not hold up in a slugfest with an older fighter. Browne was also dismantled by Werdum in a non-title, five-round unanimous decision loss in 2014, which does not give much hope that he could defeat Werdum in a future title fight. On top of that, Browne was accused of domestic abuse on Thursday and immediately pulled from his appearances at UFC International Fight Week. He has not been convicted of any crime, but if he is, he will be either suspended or released by the UFC. After losing two of his last three and amid domestic violence allegations, Browne's stock is definitely falling and it is unclear when he will get an opportunity to get back on the winning track.
Next Fight: TBA
Cub Swanson
Cub Swanson is on a two-fight losing streak. He has been dominated in his last two bouts and lost by submission in each of them. Prior to losing two in a row, Swanson had been on a six-fight win streak. To end the streak, he was dominated for five rounds by Frankie Edgar and suffered one of the latest submission losses in UFC history. Even more concerning, Swanson was substantially outstruck by Max Holloway in his next fight before being submitted in the third round. Even though he boasts a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Swanson's bread and butter has always been his striking, particularly his boxing. He trains with renowned boxing trainer Edgar Diaz, and Swanson has been known to spar competitively with boxing star Timothy Bradley. His performance against Holloway was discouraging and severely damaged Swanson's chance at a title opportunity due to the crowded title picture in the UFC featherweight division. Swanson needs to get back on the winning track in order to get back in the title picture at featherweight. One option, Ricardo Lamas, had his last fight only 14 days before Swanson's, and both men suffered losses. That is an interesting matchup that would fast-track the winner to a fight with one of the four fighters at the top of the division.
Next Fight: TBA
Cain Velasquez
This may be jumping the gun, as Velasquez was handed only his first loss since 2011, but the last two years of his career have been troubling. Velasquez recently lost his UFC heavyweight championship to Fabricio Werdum. This was after an almost two-year, injury-riddled absence from the Octagon. He was dominated by Werdum before being submitted in the third round. Many would credit this loss to the altitude of Mexico City, where Velasquez trained for only two weeks leading up to his fight with Werdum. One argument is his body did not have enough time to adjust to the elevation, so Velasquez did not possess the cardio that has made him such an intimidating opponent during his title reign. But what if his better days are behind him? Velasquez is 32 years old, and his grueling fights with Junior dos Santos may be catching up with him. He was knocked out in the first round of their first encounter and was able to win the next two fights of their trilogy, but both fighters absorbed a significant amount of punishment. Dos Santos undoubtedly looked like a lesser fighter in his last fight, a controversial decision win against Stipe Miocic. It is possible that both fighters took such a great deal of punishment in those fights that they are no longer as effective of fighters. Along with the possible damage from those fights, Velasquez has been unable to stay healthy. He participated in multiple fight camps during his two-year layoff, but got injured each time. If Velasquez can't stay healthy, he won't be able to train with the intensity necessary for a five-round championship fight, so he will have a hard time regaining his title.
Next Fight: TBA
