Livan Hernandez

2013

There was no outlook written for Livan Hernandez.

2012

Hernandez logged 175.1 innings for the Nationals and pitched better than his ERA would indicate. His 3.96 FIP was almost identical to his 2010 rate (3.95), and his xFIP of 4.28 was his lowest since 2003. This success could have come from a change in his pitching approach. For the first time in his career, Hernandez threw his fastball, which averaged 83.9 mph in 2011, less than 50 percent of the time and used his change-up, slider and slow curveball more frequently. This resulted in his highest swinging strike rate since 2005. Hernandez signed a non-guaranteed deal with the Astros in December and has a chance of eating innings in Houston in 2012 with the decision to shift Brett Myers into the bullpen.

2011

Brought in merely to eat innings and protect the bullpen from the Nationals' younger arms, Hernandez instead had yet another renaissance and became the team's most reliable starter, posting an entirely respectable ERA and WHIP and making 30-plus starts for an incredible 13th straight season. The Nats are bringing him back once again, and while it seems highly improbable that he'll come close to duplicating that performance given his over-reliance on veteran savvy and moxie in place of actual stuff, with Hernandez it might be safer to expect the unexpected.

2010

Hernandez had a couple of decent starts in his second go-round with the Nationals after the Mets cut him loose, but his final numbers in both cities were downright ugly. In real life his only usefulness at this point is as a guy who can soak up some innings so that you don't have to rush your younger arms, which means he's just as likely to end up back in Washington as anywhere else.

2009

At some point, you're not eating innings so much as you're chewing them and then gagging them up. That was Hernandez's 2008, which featured the lowest full-season innings total of his career in part because he was knocked out of seven of his last 18 starts before completing five frames. He has no fantasy value, and his real-life value is approaching zero as well.

2008

Hernandez has reached the stage of his career where he's far more valuable to major league teams than he is to your fantasy squad. Looking at his tumbling strikeout rate (career-low 3.96 K/9IP) and wavering command (career-high 3.48 BB/9IP), it's hard to believe that he's only 32 years old. Even worse is the fact that his home-road splits are nearly identical, and don't offer any indication of things turning around in a new home park. He'll be at the top of the rotation with the Twins after signing a one-year contract. Don't be fooled by the name and expect to get the kid who was untouchable in the '97 NLCS or the crafty veteran who fanned 186 batters in 2004.

2007

What makes Hernandez valuable in real life -- he's a horse -- hurts him in fantasy because he anchors your ERA with his, and in Phoenix it'll be closer to 5.00 than 4.00. He's more useful in formats where you can work him in and out and get more of his road starts.

2006

A lingering knee injury reduced his effectiveness to its pre-arm angle tweak levels, but Hernandez still managed to chew up an impressive number of innings at the top of the Nationals rotation. With John Patterson emerging as a legitimate potential ace, the pressure will be off Hernandez to carry such a big load -- that, and improved health, should get his numbers back into their 2003-2004 range.

2005

His 2003 turnaround turned out to be for real, as Hernandez once again posted good-to-great numbers. He's better suited to being a #2 starter on a deep staff, but the Nats will be happy with him as their very first ace -- they could do worse.

2004

Perhaps even more shocking than Esteban Loaiza's breakthrough was Hernandez's 2003, when he was a legitimate Cy Young candidate until a mild September swoon. A change in delivery, and approach, was credited with the turn-around, and he set a career high for K's while posting the best over-all numbers since his rookie season with the Marlins. Maybe his fortunes are tied to Florida playoff success. Like Loaiza, it'll take a lot of courage to bid high for him this year, but if you have him cheap it'll be tough to say no to a return engagement.

2003

Hernandez is in the last year of a four-year, $13-million contract in 2003, and he'll turn 28, or 32, or God-knows-what in the spring. Over the last three years, he's averaged a 4.40 ERA – pitching in a pitcher's park, mind you – and a 1.44 WHIP. If he stays with the Giants, or winds up in other pitcher-friendly surroundings, he might be an acceptable late-round play. However, in the last year of that contract, there's no guarantee of that; he could wind up with anyone who wants “veteran presence” in the starting rotation, and, even in a mildly hitter-friendly ballyard, Hernandez becomes a high-risk, medium-return play.