36-Year-Old First Baseman – Free Agent
2013 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
El Caballo hit the open market this offseason after an up-and-down second half with the Marlins. He batted an uninspiring .243/.328/.325 with Miami over 292 at-bats, but managed to drive in a solid 48...
Carlos Lee Contract Information:
Filed for free agency in Oct. 2006. Signed six-year $100 million deal with Astros in November of 2006.
Lee went 1-for-4 on Friday with a double and two RBI.
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|2006 (Multiple Teams)||30||MAJ||MIL/TEX||161||695||624||102||187||75||37||1||37||116||19||2||58||65||0||11||2||.300||.355||.540||.895|
|2012 (Multiple Teams)||36||MAJ||HOU/MIA||147||615||550||53||145||37||27||1||9||77||3||0||58||49||0||6||1||.264||.332||.365||.697|
|2013 RotoWire Projections||MAJ||Subscribe now to see our 2013 projections for Carlos Lee|
|Career (View All)||MAJ||2099||8786||7983||1125||2274||846||469||19||358||1363||125||47||655||984||3||98||47||.285||.339||.483||.822|
|Year||Age||Lg||Tm||PA||AB||Walk Rate||Strikeout Rate||BB/K Ratio||Contact Rate||BABIP||Isolated Power|
|2006 (Multiple Teams)||30||MAJ||MIL/TEX||695||624||8.3%||9.4%||0.89||90%||.287||.240|
|2012 (Multiple Teams)||36||MAJ||HOU/MIA||615||550||9.4%||8%||1.18||91%||.276||.101|
|2013 Projections||MAJ||Subscribe now to see our 2013 projections for Carlos Lee|
2013 Projected Stats Breakdown for Carlos Lee
2013 projections compared to top 300 hitters in 2012 (min 250 PA)
2013 projections compared to top first basemen in 2012 (min 250 PA)
Career Batter vs. Pitcher Stats (View All Matchup Data)
Best Matchups for Carlos Lee (by OPS, min 16 AB)
Worst Matchups for Carlos Lee (by OPS, min 16 AB)
Carlos Lee: Past News Updates ( ▲ View most recent update )
RotoWire's Preseason Outlooks
Lee struggled again in the first half of last season but manager Brad Mills stuck with him and was rewarded with a .285/.375/.476 second-half line. The solid finish helped Lee bounce back from a 2010 campaign where his OPS hovered near .700 for most of the year. He showed improved plate discipline, posting the sixth lowest strikeout rate among qualifiers in the National League and his highest walk total since 2002. If the Astros decide to move J.D. Martinez from right from left, Lee could find himself playing the outfield more. In the final year of a nearly immovable contract, Lee should continue to eat at-bats in an Astros lineup laden with young players. He can provide some cheap production, but don't get too invested.
Lee overcame a horrendous start to salvage his season somewhat, at least in the power categories. His numbers prove that if you get enough at-bats in the middle of the lineup, you will pick up RBI. If you look a little deeper, you'll see from Lee's .291 OBP that he is not really the same hitter he was in his prime; just three years ago that number hovered near .370. Still, after a 50-game slump where he hit .206/.239/.330 to open the season, Lee hit .265/.315/.457 with 19 homers and 68 RBI thereafter. The team will try Lee at first base more, given his limited outfield range and the uncertain readiness of Brett Wallace for a regular starting job, but his large contract and the lack of alternatives in left field will almost certainly keep Lee in the everyday lineup.
Lee played through injuries for most of the season, and though his rate stats tapered off somewhat, his season line was just fine (thanks in part to appearing in 160 games). Age will increasingly become a risk for El Caballo, but he offers decent value in the outfield for those who miss out on the top-tier options. Given his track record, you can safely expect the usual 25-30 homers and 100-plus RBI, even if it comes from the middle of an impotent Astros lineup.
Lee's season was cut short by a fractured pinkie, but he was having arguably the best year of his career before the injury. He ended up hitting .314 with 28 homers and 100 RBI in just 436 at-bats. He'd always been able to keep his strikeouts in check in the past, but he posted a ridiculous 49:37 K:BB ratio last season. As long as he stays healthy, you know what to expect here: a minimum of 30 home runs and 100 RBI, while all signs during the offseason have pointed to a complete recovery and Lee being ready for the start of spring training.
Many questioned the Astros signing Lee to a six-year, $100 million contract in the offseason, but he ended up being the Astros' most consistent player from start to finish. He ended the year with his usual stats, hitting .303 and slugging .528 with 32 homers, 43 doubles and 119 RBI. There's no reason to expect anything less than another 30-homer and 100-RBI from him in 2008, especially with more offensive weapons around him in the Houston lineup.
Lee takes his career down I-45 to Houston after a brief stop in Arlington. He's a lock for 30-plus HR, 10-plus steals and 50-plus walks, which was worth $100 million over six years to Houston.
Lee's production fell off during the second half of 2005 (.262/.309/.437 after the All-Star break), but he still hit 32 home runs and drove in 114 runs on the season. Lee will again bat cleanup for Milwaukee and is a good bet for 30-plus home runs and 100 RBI.
The White Sox have been looking to peddle Lee for a couple of years now, and while they got the timing right (Lee set new career highs in all three 'Sabermetric Triple Crown' categories in 2004) the Brewers appear to have fleeced them regardless. Lee should be a force in the middle of the Milwaukee lineup for at least a few years, and although the move to Miller Park might cut into his numbers a bit, we don't foresee a huge drop (Lee's splits were dead even in 2004, .302/.367/.526 at home vs. .307/.366/.523 on the road).
Lee was lauded for a breakout season, even getting misplaced MVP hype from Chicago newsies who weren't going to be outdone in the silly department by Shannon Stewart boosters, but aside from some extra RBI opportunities his numbers are pretty much what they were in 2000-01. He's in his prime, so there's no reason to expect him to slip, but there's also little reason to expect much more.
Lee ended the year more or less where he started it -- on the trading block -- but if the Sox, or you for that matter, give up on him now, they're crazy. From a fantasy standpoint, 2002 was a big disappointment because his speed disappeared (17 steals in 2001, 1 in 2002), but Lee more than doubled his walk rate without sacrificing any power. Oh yeah, and he'll be 27 next June. Lee has breakout season written all over him and should be available at a reasonable price.