Tim Hudson

2013

Subscribe now to see our 2013 outlook.

2012

Hudson generates ground balls (56.7 percent of batted balls last season), which helps overcome mediocre control and strikeout rates. However, he increased his strikeout rate last season to 6.61 K/9IP, his highest since 2001, and had the lowest walk rate of his Braves career. He's also been durable since returning from 2009 Tommy John surgery as he's had at least 16 wins and 215 innings pitched each of the last two seasons. However, Hudson had surgery in November to fix a herniated disc in his back and is now expected to miss the first month of the regular season. If he's healthy, he should produce similar results as Atlanta's No. 1 or No. 2 starter, but health is hardly a guarantee for him at this point.

2011

Hudson surprisingly looked better in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery than at any point in his Atlanta career. The average velocity on his fastball climbed above 91 mph -- a level not seen since 2004 with Oakland. He also had the best groundball rate (64.1 percent) of his Atlanta career. The results were 17 wins, a 2.83 ERA and his most innings pitched since 2003. While Hudson looked better than ever, there are some signs he pitched worse than his numbers indicate. He still had just an average strikeout rate (5.5 K/9IP) with mediocre control (139:74 K:BB ratio). However, he's had a strong career without dominating peripheral numbers. He'll be counted on again as Atlanta's No. 1 or No. 2 starter.

2010

Hudson looked healthy in his seven starts after returning from July 2008 Tommy John surgery and will be the No. 2 or No. 3 starter for the Braves in 2010 after agreeing to a new three-year contract. While seven starts is a small sample size, he didn't show any of the flaws that plagued him early in his Atlanta career when he had a declining strikeout rate and gave up too many home runs. He also didn't show the initial control problems that typically plague Tommy John patients when they first return to the majors. He could quickly return to his 2007 form as a result.

2009

Hudson was on the way to repeating his 2007 career rebound season before leaving a start in late July due to a sore elbow. He ended up tearing a ligament and underwent Tommy John surgery. It's possible he could return late in 2009, but we'll most likely see him again in 2010.

2008

Hudson rebounded from the worst season of his career and remarkably turned around a decline in his control and strikeouts. While he's not striking out as many batters as during his glory days with Oakland, he saw a strong decline in his home runs allowed and dramatically improved his strikeout-to-walk rate. How to explain the turnaround? Hudson underwent an offseason weightlifting and conditioning program similar to the one he utilized before his arrival in Atlanta. He had quit the program after several oblique injuries, but remained healthy last season. As long as he keeps the ball in the park, he could produce a similar season as Atlanta's No. 2 starter.

2007

Hudson had the worst season of his career as a general decline in his conrol and strikeouts finally caught up with him. He's been mediocre during his Atlanta career, going 27-21 with a 4.23 ERA the past two seasons. He was actually healthy last season too, avoiding the oblique muscle injuries that plagued him the past few years. Hudson has seen his K:BB rate decline sharply and his homers allowed surge with the Braves. Despite a slight increase in strikeouts last season, he'll need to reverse those trends in a big way to return to his former level as Atlanta's No. 3 starter.

2006

Hudson's first season with Atlanta looked much like his last with Oakland. He posted a decent ERA and missed time again due to an oblique muscle injury. While his strikeout rate stabilized after a downward trend the last six seasons, he had a career-worst K/BB ratio and gave up the most home runs per inning of his career. He should post similar numbers again this season, but unless he begins to strike out more batters, don't expect a return to the dominant stats he had in Oakland. The risk remains to the downside.

2005

Hudson regressed as predicted in 2004. He simply didn't miss enough bats to post a 1.075 WHIP as he did in 2003, and a steadily declining K/9IP rate was part of it: 8.71, 7.51, 6.93, 5.73, 6.08, 4.91 since joining the majors. It's hard to maintain a sub-3.50 ERA with that K/9IP rate, but it's not impossible, and it's still tough to get the ball out of the infield against him, much less over the fence. A nagging oblique injury shelved him for half a dozen starts in 2004, but it might have saved him from a Roy Halladay-like breakdown in 2005. He'll need to strike more batters out, however, to be an elite starter in 5 x 5 leagues.

2004

Hudson yielded a whopping 40 fewer hits than the year before despite nearly identical peripherals (K:BB, K:9IP), a "skill" that recent research has shown isn't reliably repeatable. He's a good bet to regress a bit, back to the 1.20 WHIP range, but he's a reliable source of 240 innings year after year.

2003

Talk about sneaking in under the radar - Hudson posted a career-best 2.98 ERA and was considered the third best pitcher on his team. You can pretty much book it that he'll be ordinary the first two months, only to start the Tim Hudson Four Months of Filth ™ tour once June 1 rolls around. The strikeout promise he showed as a rookie isn't panning out, which just means he's only in the top five among AL starters. Never topped 120 pitches in a start last year, astonishing for a guy who tossed 238 innings.