27-Year-Old Pitcher – Seattle Mariners
2013 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Hernandez might have won the Cy Young award had he not faced the Angels last season. In five starts against the Angels, Hernandez was bruised for a 6.25 ERA and an 11.7 H/9. In his 28 other starts, he...
Felix Hernandez Contract Information:
Agreed to a seven-year, $175 million contract with the Mariners in February of 2013.
Hernandez (back) lasted a mere five innings Sunday, allowing six runs (five earned) on eight hits and two walks to go with eight strikeouts, as Seattle was blanked in Cleveland.
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|AccuScore ROS Projections||MAJ||Subscribe now to see the 2013 Rest Of Season AccuScore projections for Felix Hernandez|
|2013 RotoWire Projections||MAJ||Subscribe now to see our 2013 projections for Felix Hernandez|
|Career (View All)||MAJ||248||248||9||1,690.0||1542||595||134||1559||492||103||79||0||–||–||3.17||1.20|
|Last 14 Days
3 Games: Avg. 6.3 IP/G
|Last 30 Days
6 Games: Avg. 6.8 IP/G
|Last 60 Days
10 Games: Avg. 7.0 IP/G
|Next 7 Days
|–||Subscribe now to see AccuScore's projected stats for Felix Hernandez over the next seven days.|
Felix Hernandez Split Stats (View Full Split Stats)
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|2013 Projections||MAJ||Subscribe now to see our 2013 projections for Felix Hernandez|
2013 Stat Review for Felix Hernandez As compared to the top 200 starting pitchers in 2012 (min 40 in)
A collection of stats that measure different skills.
A few general measures of a pitcher's effectiveness.
Balls in play avg. and % of runners left stranded.
2013 Projected Stats Breakdown for Felix Hernandez
2013 projections compared to top pitchers in 2012.
Seattle Mariners Roster
MajorsAckley, Dustin (2B)
AAABeavan, Blake (P)
AAAlmonte, Abraham (OF)
A+Choi, Ji-Man (C)
AAustin, Jamal (OF)
RookieBurgess, Jarrett (OF)
Career Pitcher vs. Batter Stats (View All Matchup Data)
Worst Matchups for Felix Hernandez (by OPS against, min 19 AB)
Best Matchups for Felix Hernandez (by OPS against, min 19 AB)
Felix Hernandez: Past News Updates ( ▲ View most recent update )
RotoWire's Preseason Outlooks
Coming off a Cy Young season, Hernandez's 3.47 ERA from last year looks disappointing, but the bump in ERA is probably best explained by a lower strand rate and significantly higher BABIP. Hernandez's walk and strikeout rates remained consistent with the previous year (the K rate actually increased in 2011), and he's still generating a ton of ground balls. He still doesn't get much run support, but with his devastating arsenal of pitches and electric stuff, he'll continue to be one of the game's best pitchers.
Hernandez turned in another dominating season last year, and this time he was rewarded with the American League Cy Young award. Hernandez, who finished second in Cy Young balloting in 2009, led the AL last season in innings pitched, ERA, H/9IP, quality starts, batting average against and OPS against and was second in strikeouts and third in complete games (both by one). Just as impressive, he continued to be a groundball/strikeout machine. Since he entered the league, no pitcher in baseball has struck out more batters per nine innings and gotten as many groundball outs as Hernandez. The only mark against him in 2010 was his 13 wins, fewest ever for a Cy Young winner. But an AL-low 3.10 runs of support was responsible for that.
Hernandez came up just short in his bid for the Cy Young, but his 2009 season was a remarkable feat nonetheless. No starting pitcher struck out more batters per nine innings and got as many groundball outs as Hernandez. He led the AL in OPS against at .605, and no pitcher in baseball threw as many quality starts (29) or had a higher quality start percentage (85 percent). Hernandez's youth is still taken for granted – at 23, he was the youngest player on the AL All-Star team last season and he was at least two years younger than any of his Cy Young rivals in either league. His focus seemed to sharpen after getting called out publicly by his manager after a poor outing May 19. From that point on, Hernandez went 15-2 with a 1.98 ERA in his final 25 starts. Let's see what his encore brings.
Hernandez was enjoying a dominating season before spraining an ankle in late June last year. The injury sent him to the disabled list and seemed to knock him off stride. In 16 starts before the DL, he had a 2.83 ERA, 2.44 K/BB, 8.0 H/9IP and 3.1 BB/9IP. In 15 starts after the DL, he sunk to a 4.18 ERA, 1.95 K/BB, 9.8 H/9IP and 4.08 BB/9IP. Perhaps the ankle gave him more trouble than he let on -- and he also pitched through late-season groin soreness -- but whatever the case, Hernandez wasn't as sharp in the second half. Still, 2008 saw Hernandez develop better poise on the mound, keeping damage to a minimum by keeping his composure, which helped him evolve from thrower to pitcher. Only 22, Hernandez has more maturing and more developing to do, but he's already a rarity -- only two starters had a higher strikeout rate and a higher groundball rate than Hernandez last year. Better defense (the Mariners have been awful the last few years) and better run support (his 3.68 RS was the second-lowest in the AL last season) would help Hernandez's prospects as well.
For all of Hernandez's frustrating peaks and valleys last year, it's important to remember just how unique he is. Hernandez had the highest K/9IP (7.80) last season of any starter with a G/F ratio of at least 2.00. Since he came into the league, in fact, no starter other than Felix has struck out more batters per nine and had a G/F higher than 2.10. All that, and he's 21, which partly explains his command problems - he's still learning. A quarter of his runs allowed last year came in the first inning, though he's actually better the first time through the lineup (.752 OPS) than the second time through (.791). A minor elbow injury interrupted a fine start to the season, but Hernandez's foremost problem is his inability to control his fastball - not an uncommon problem for 21-year-olds who throw in the high 90s. If Hernandez evolves this year from a thrower to pitcher (and if the elbow doesn't flare up - no small thing with this organization's injury history), he'll earn the title of staff ace, bestowed upon him last year by default - and unfortunately so because of the requisite expectations.
After a highly impressive 2005 debut, Hernandez was surprisingly disappointing in 2006. Various theories were floated inside and outside the organization as to why he struggled, but generally speaking when he kept the ball down he cruised; when he left it up he got hit. Hernandez posted an 8.3 K/9 and nearly a 3:1 K:BB with the sixth-best G/F rate in baseball at 2.39, showing the tools are there to dominate as expected. The Mariners limited his innings last season and likely will do so again.
Hernandez's long-anticipated debut couldn't have been more impressive. In 12 major league starts, he posted a 2.67 ERA, 0.996 WHIP and a K/BB rate of more than 3/1 (77/23). It took eight starts for his ERA to surpass 2.00 and five starts before he gave up his first extra-base hit. He still has bouts of wildness (in two games he walked four batters each; in his 10 other starts, he walked a combined 15), but Hernandez proved overpowering for the most part. Of his 61 hits allowed only 14 were for extra bases. He induced 149 ground-ball outs to 45 fly-ball outs, a rate (3.31) that would have led the American League. The Mariners again will limit his innings to 190 and still won't let him throw his above-average slider.
Hernandez, one of baseball's top prospects, won't turn 19 until April 8, but he could find himself in Seattle by then. He tore through the California League last season before a successful promotion to Double-A San Antonio. On the major league scouting scale of 20 to 80, Hernandez's curveball and 99 mph fastball rate at 70. He also throws an above-average slider that runs up to 91 mph and looks a lot like his fastball. He could make the big-league team out of spring training, but he'll likely start the season at Triple-A Tacoma. It'll be hard to keep Hernandez, who has been compared to Dwight Gooden, down on the farm.
Signed out Venezuela, Hernandez dominated Rookie ball, and earned a promotion to Low A in 2003 as a 17-year-old. At 6-foot-3 and 170 pounds, he’s thin as a rake but can get his fastball into the high 90s and has one of the best curveballs in the organization. He’s still developing a change up but blew away rookies with the two-pitch repertoire. He’s raw, prone to overthrowing, and needs to bulk up a bit, but he’s quickly become one of the most talked about pitchers in the low minors. He should begin the season in Low-A with a High-A promotion a possibility. He’ll need to learn to pitch before he’s ready to move beyond A-ball but he’s a player to keep tabs on.