Ricky Nolasco

2013

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2012

For once Nolasco's ERA and WHIP matched his peripherals, but his fantasy owners wish they hadn't. His K/9IP rate sagged to 6.47, his lowest mark since becoming a regular starter, and his BABIP exploded to .331. He's lost just a tick of velocity off his fastball, but that little bit was enough to erode his numbers substantially. If he can't get the ball by hitters any more (after successive years with a swinging-strike percentage over 10 percent, Nolasco put up just a 8.9 mark in 2011) he'll struggle to be even a league average pitcher going forward. If you're thinking about rostering him this season, keep a very close eye on those late spring radar gun readings.

2011

Once again Nolasco put up a shockingly high ERA given his stellar K/BB ratios, and a late knee injury robbed him of any chance to shave a few points off it in September. The surgery went well and he should be fine by the start of spring training, and even a slight regression back to the mean for his elevated 2009-2010 BABIPs would mean another All-Star caliber season. The Marlins were confident enough in his return to form that they signed him to a three-year extension, which is a pretty big vote of confidence from a penny-pinching organization like Florida. Don't let those inflated ERAs scare you away.

2010

After taking the NL by storm in 2008, Nolasco fell back to earth last season, posting a 5.06 ERA and even getting sent down to Triple-A at one point, but a deeper look at his numbers only deepens the mystery of his regression. Nolasco's strikeout rate actually improved significantly without much of an increase in his walk or home-run rates, and his BAA didn't see a big jump either. He didn't even have particularly bad bullpen support. Given Nolasco's ratios, that ERA should come way down in 2010, but without an obvious explanation as to why it went up in the first place that statement comes with a tiny bit of doubt.

2009

Nolasco entered 2008 as a 25-year-old pitcher struggling to define himself. He had yet to really establish himself as a starter, and while the Marlins made some noise about giving him a chance to close the opportunity never materialized. He instead barely won the fifth starter's spot, and appeared to be on his way to another unremarkable season when he finally began to harness the split-finger pitch he'd added to his repertoire in the spring. The turnaround was stunning, and Nolasco went from staff filler to ace seemingly overnight. The National League never did figure out the new Nolasco and his numbers actually got better after the All-Star break, including an astounding 98:12 K:BB ratio in 95.2 innings. There'll be some questions about whether he can repeat such an out-of-nowhere performance, but to all outward appearances those numbers are for real. He'll enter 2009 as the Marlins' #1 pitcher, and if the offense can help him win a few more games he might even be a dark horse Cy Young candidate.

2008

Elbow trouble limited Nolasco to just 21.1 ineffective major league innings, and the Marlins seem inclined to move him to the bullpen full-time, where he'll be able to get a little more out of his fastball and keep hitters off his merely decent breaking pitches. If he can get back into the rotation he'd have a bit of upside (he did strike out better than a batter an inning as recently as 2005 in Double-A), but right now he seems like reserve list fodder at best.

2007

Nolasco was one of four Marlins rookie starters to break the double-digit mark in wins in 2006, but as the least-heralded of the bunch he might have to prove himself all over again in 2007 to keep the job. Florida's brain trust (not the oxymoron it was a few seasons ago) has considered trying him at closer as well, a move that could add some pop to his fastball and elevate his stuff from good to excellent. Keep an eye on both his status and his performance this spring, as his fantasy value will be very volatile until his role is settled.

2006

Nolasco outmatched hitters at Double-A for the second season in a row and showed good command. He struggled in a brief stint at Triple-A in 2004, but should open the year there next spring. Nolasco has good, but not outstanding stuff, so he'll have to be sharp to thrive at Triple-A and in the majors. If all goes well, he could crack the Florida rotation at some point this summer.