Carlos Marmol

2013

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2012

After showing ungodly dominance (16.0 K/9IP) in 2010, Marmol crashed to earth last year. The problem for Marmol, as always, was the walk rate - still nearly 6.0 BB/9IP - but he could no longer get away with it as his strikeout rate plummeted to a merely elite 12.0 K/9IP. The lesson here is you don't have to worry about walks if your pitcher is striking out batters at a historically high rate. But such rates are unsustainable for any pitcher, and walks do matter even with normal elite strikeout rates. Another reason for the dropoff was a significant velocity decline (from 94 to 92 mph on his average fastball), perhaps as a result of his major-league high 313 relief appearances since 2008. Marmol lost his closer job to Sean Marshall briefly last year, but at press time, he's still the incumbent, provided the team doesn't try to move him.

2011

If you're facing Carlos Marmol, try and work a walk. It's pretty much your only hope. Marmol struck out an ungodly 16.0 K/9IP last year and allowed just one home run in 77.2 IP. Put differently, he allowed a .154 batting average against, and that's only because he had a .325 BABIP. The way to get to Marmol is with the free pass - he issued a whopping 52 of them last season. As long as the strikeout rate stays extremely high (maybe not 16, but even 12-plus), Marmol should be okay most of the time. But if the command doesn't get better, and the strikeout rate drops even to regular elite closer levels, he'll be living dangerously. Nonetheless, he's the team's undisputed closer, a great source of strikeouts from a reliever and would have to implode significantly before Kerry Wood (or anyone else) gets a shot.

2010

Marmol began the season in a setup role behind Kevin Gregg, but eventually claimed the closer job when Gregg couldn't keep the ball in the park. Marmol had his own problems, however, walking an ungodly 65 batters in 74 innings. Even after took over the closer job, he walked nearly a batter an inning, though he converted all 12 of his save opportunities down the stretch. Of course, Marmol was almost unhittable all year with 94 strikeouts. Unlike the last two years, Marmol will head into camp as the team's undisputed closer, but he's a high-risk/high-reward pick who could dominate or implode at any point. If Marmol were to falter, Angel Guzman (provided he stays healthy) is the most likely candidate to take over the job.

2009

When Marmol's on, he's as untouchable as any reliever in the game, alternating between a 95 mph fastball and a sharp-breaking slider. Marmol struck out 114 batters in 87.1 innings last year, but he struggled with his command in June and July which boosted his walk rate. He also served up 10 home runs which is not surprising given his flyball tendencies. With Kerry Wood moving on to Cleveland via free agency, Marmol is the frontrunner to take over the closer job in 2009 despite the Cubs' acquisition of Kevin Gregg.

2008

The hard-throwing righty had an impressive year out of the bullpen in 2007, striking out a whopping 96 batters in just 69 and a third innings. His command could stand to improve, and he still gives up far too many flyballs (0.5 G/F), but when you're missing that many bats, there aren't going to be a lot of baserunners against you. Heading into 2008, Marmol will likely be sharing the closer role with Bobby Howry and Kerry Wood, but any of the three could emerge as the sole closer either in spring training or at some point during the season.

2007

Marmol was pressed into major league duty before he was ready thanks to injuries to the Cubs starters last season. The results weren't pretty. Too many walks and far too few ground balls were the culprits. Marmol's got a live arm, but he belongs in the high minors for the foreseeable future. We suspect he'll stay there until September, barring another rash of injuries.

2006

A converted catcher with a live arm, Marmol pitched well at High-A and Double-A a year ago striking out roughly a batter an inning at each stop. He'll need to cut down the walks to succeed as he climbs the ladder, but he's still learning and will be interesting to watch if he adds some polish.