Deolis Guerra

2013

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2012

Guerra had an ugly 5.09 ERA at Double-A New Britain, but his cosmetic numbers hide a turnaround that could give him a shot at a big league bullpen job as early as 2012. Guerra struggled to begin the season at Double-A, but improved dramatically when moved to the bullpen with a 2.81 ERA and 36:8 K:BB ratio in 32 innings after the All-Star break. He also had an outstanding 95:28 K:BB ratio in 95 innings along with a 3.72 FIP (which may have indicated he was unlucky). His work as a reliever made such a strong impression that he was being considered for a September callup to Minnesota before being sidelined by forearm soreness. He could contend for a role in the majors with a strong start at Triple-A. He'll turn just 23 years old next season, so there's some upside if he can sustain the strikeout rates and control he found as reliever.

2011

Guerra looked like he turned the corner in 2009 to perhaps become a top prospect, but he seemed to regress last season with a 6.31 ERA and unimpressive 90:49 K:BB ratio in 133.1 innings (just 6.0 K/9IP) between Double-A and Triple-A. He'll be just 22 years old this season and young for Triple-A, but he'll need better strikeout rates and control to think he'll be an impact player in the majors.

2010

Guerra was thought to be the hidden jewel in the Johan Santana trade, but then looked like a bust after a disappointing 2008 season. However, he turned the corner in 2009 with a 106:42 K:BB ratio in 149 innings between High-A and Double-A (despite a 4.89 ERA). He had a 49:18 K:BB ratio in 63.2 innings at Double-A as a starter. He'll be just 21 years old next season and could advance rapidly since it looks like he's finally putting things together after he was probably rushed earlier in his career (playing at High-A at age 18).

2009

Guerra was thought to be the hidden jewel in the Johan Santana trade, but disappointed at High-A Fort Myers amid reports of a decline in velocity and a lack of movement on his fastball. He still hits the low 90s with his fastball and has a plus changeup, but struggled with his control - allowing as many walks as strikeouts. Still, he was just 19 years old while playing in High-A and is still seen as somewhat raw after missing time earlier in his career with injuries. Even so, he'll need a strong season to return to the upper ranks of Minnesota's prospects.

2008

Guerra is looking like a bargain at the $700K the Mets paid to sign him in 2005 as he's now potentially Minnesota's best pitching prospect after coming over in the Johan Santana trade. Guerra missed more than a month last season with what was described as shoulder tendinitis, but was eased back into action with a limited workload for the next few months. He improved the velocity on his fastball to 89-94 mph, topping out around 96, and has a plus changeup - which is thrown with the same arm action as his fastball. When his changeup is working, he gets a lot of swings and misses on it (similar to Johan Santana), but Guerra still needs to work on developing and refining his curveball. Guerra has only thrown 179 innings in the minors, largely due to his injuries and being brought along slowly by New York, so the next step is for him to make it through a full season unscathed. He should begin 2008 at High-A and a late-2009 ETA seems reasonable.

2007

Guerra showed why the Mets paid $700K to sign him in 2005 as an 18-year old by rebounding from an 0-3 start for Low-A Hagerstown to finish the year at High-A St. Lucie. Guerra limited hitters to a .213 batting average against and .291 slugging percentage while striking out 63 in 77.2 innings pitched at St. Lucie. His fastball is his best pitch and the key for him going forward is to control his curveball and changeup, which is thrown with the same arm action as his fastball. When it's working, he gets a lot of swings-and-misses on it. Look for Guerra to start 2007 at St. Lucie and possibly see Double-A Binghamton by the end of the year as he is considered one of the Mets' top pitching prospects.