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Pitching Value Meter: Cy Young Charge

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

For the week Aug. 30 - Sept. 5

Disclaimer: Rankings are based on information through Friday evening. We will update this piece with comments at the bottom of the article as new information becomes available but recommend keeping up to date with the latest player news.

Always appreciate comments on the rankings, and I expect some disagreement. I'd love to explain the rankings in more detail if you have specific questions, and if there's something in particular that you disagree with, feel free to comment below with your reasoning.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.Roy Halladay - @LAD, MIL
2.Adam Wainwright - CIN
3.Jair Jurrjens - NYM, @FLA
4.Mat Latos - @ARI
5.Ted Lilly - SF
6.Ubaldo Jimenez - @SF
7.Clayton Kershaw - PHI
8.Chris Carpenter - @HOU
9.Josh Johnson - ATL
10.Tim Hudson - NYM
11.Johan Santana - @ATL
12.Matt Cain - @LAD
13.Tommy Hanson - NYM
14.Tim Lincecum - COL
15.Cole Hamels - MIL
16.Roy Oswalt - @LAD
17.Carlos Zambrano - PIT, NYM
18.Jon Niese - @ATL, @CHC
19.Johnny Cueto - MIL
20.Ryan Dempster - PIT
21.Yovani Gallardo - @CIN
22.Jamie Garcia - @HOU
23.Brett Myers - @ARI
24.Hiroki Kuroda - PHI, SF
25.Chad Billingsley - SF
26.Ricky Nolasco - ATL
27.Ian Kennedy - SD
28.Travis Wood - MIL, @STL
29.Dan Hudson - HOU
30.Bronson Arroyo - @STL
31.Jake Westbrook - @HOU, CIN
32.James McDonald - @CHC
33.Jonathan Sanchez - COL, @LAD
34.Mike Minor - NYM, @FLA
35.Anibal Sanchez - WAS
36.Jon Garland - COL
37.Mike Pelfrey - @ATL
38.R.A. Dickey - @CHC
39.Homer Bailey - MIL
40.Wade LeBlanc - @ARI, COL
41.Derek Lowe - @FLA

Borderline

42.Jorge De La Rosa - @SF, SD
43.Randy Wolf - @CIN, @PHI
44.Clayton Richard - COL
45.Madison Bumgarner - COL
46.Joe Saunders - SD, HOU
47.Jordan Zimmerman - @FLA
48.Jason Hammel - SD
49.Paul Maholm - @CHC, WAS
50.Alejandro Sanabia - WAS, ATL
51.Barry Zito - @LAD
52.Wandy Rodriguez - STL
53.Barry Enright - SD
54.Randy Wells - NYM
55.Casey Coleman - NYM
56.Rodrigo Lopez - HOU
57.John Lannan - @PIT
58.Livan Hernandez - @PIT
59.Tom Gorzelanny - PIT
60.Jhoulys Chacin - PHI
61.Joe Blanton - @COL
62.Kyle Kendrick - @LAD, MIL
63.Chris Volstad - WAS
64.Pat Misch - @ATL, @CHC
65.Jason Marquis - @FLA, @PIT
66.J.A. Happ - STL, @ARI
67.Bud Norris - @ARI

Extreme Caution Advised

68.Zach Duke - WAS
69.Kyle Lohse - CIN
70.Kevin Correia - @ARI
71.Scott Olsen - @FLA
72.Edinson Volquez - @STL
73.Chris Capuano - @PHI
74.Chris Narveson - @CIN
75.Colt Morton - WAS
76.Nelson Figueroa - STL
77.Carlos Monasterios - PHI
78.Esmil Rogers - @SF, SD
79.David Bush - @PHI
80.Jeffrey Karstens - @CHC

Two-Start Starters:

ATL - Jair Jurrjens, Mike Minor
FLA – Alejandro Sanabia
NYM – Pat Misch, Jonathon Niese – Misch could be tentative for 2 starts if he implodes Monday against the Braves
PHI – Roy Halladay, Kyle Kendrick
WAS – Jason Marquis – Nats rotation is in a state of flux/disarray, so this is tentative
CHC – Carlos Zambrano – maybe Ryan Dempster if they skip Casey Coleman, which I doubt
CIN – Travis Wood – lots of rotation shuffling in CIN, so this should be considered tentative
HOU – J.A. Happ
MIL – Randy Wolf
PIT – Paul Maholm
STL – Jake WestbrookChris Carpenter could get two if Kyle Lohse is skipped
ARI – Joe Saunders
COL – Esmil Rogers (tentative considering his last start: 1.2 IP, 7 ER), Jorge De La Rosa (should be okay, but monitor status of finger). Aaron Cook (toe) could also return this week and take one of Rogers’ starts.
LAD - Hiroki Kuroda
SD – Wade LeBlanc – tentative, as Mat Latos could have start moved to limit innings
SF – Jonathan Sanchez

Notes:
Anyone want a Stephen Strasburg card I purchased for an insane $500? Guessing I couldn’t get 40 percent of that if I threw it up on eBay today. Strasburg is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery any day, a move that would put him out for all of 2011 (most likely). The good news is that this is a procedure that a majority of pitchers come back strong from, but it’s really a punch to the collective guts of all Nats fans and really to baseball fans in general. Best wishes for a speedy recovery. … Hopefully Yovani Gallardo is OK after being robbed at gunpoint. Scary stuff that can mess with anyone’s head. … So Giants manager Bruce Bochy attributes Tim Lincecum’s (and Pablo Sandoval for that matter) struggles to a lack of conditioning? Yeah, perhaps Lincecum could stand to pump a little more iron, but this seems odd. Sure, there’s probably some fatigue given his workload the last few years, but a better explanation is likely that there is some mechanical issues, a bit of fatigue and some simple bad luck. … Jordan Zimmerman averaged 93.2 mph with his fastball and showed a solid curve and change in his 2010 debut Thursday. I like him quite a bit, and with the Strasburg news this week, Zimmerman could be the Nats 2011 Opening Day starter. … Ian Kennedy struck out a career-high 12 in his Thursday start against the Padres, a team he faces again this week. I’m not sure he’s an every-week 12-team mixed league option yet, but I wouldn’t argue too much if you thought differently. … Petco Park has its advantages for pitchers, does it not? Jon Garland would certainly agree, as despite a 22:19 K:BB in 31.1 innings, Garland has netted four wins and a 2.01 ERA in August. … Johan Santana ranks just 34th in the game in strikeouts this year, but no starter has more than Santana’s 43 in August. He’s not quite washed up just yet. … NL-only leaguers should note that Carlos Silva (heart issue) is working his way back and could replace Casey Coleman in the Cubs rotation in a couple weeks. … Ricky Nolasco returns from a knee injury on Saturday (8/28), and hopefully he’s not returning too early. Those in 12-team mixed leagues will want to see how he performs in that start before activating him this week. … Tim Stauffer tossed 4.2 innings of two-run ball in relief of Kevin Correia on Thursday, striking out six and walking none. He could be an option as a starter as needed in September, and with a 1.40 ERA, Stauffer should get attention in NL-only formats. … Shutting Mike Leake down for the season, as the Reds are reportedly contemplating, makes a lot of sense. He’s already been moved to the bullpen and has allowed eight runs in his last 2.2 innings -- 138.1 innings is enough. … The trades involving Pedro Martinez and Mike Piazza rank as two of the all-time worst deals if you ask Dodgers fans, but Octavio Dotel for James McDonald and Andrew Lambo is even more baffling. At least the Pedro deal made sense at the time given LA’s needs, but as I see McDonald’s line through five innings Friday (no runs, one hit, no walks, six strikeouts against a tough Brewers offense), this may be even worse than those other deals. McDonald’s curveball is looking really, really good as I watch this one. [Edit: I didn’t watch the seventh inning of this one … thankfully.]

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1.Felix Hernandez - LAA, CLE
2.CC Sabathia - OAK
3.Jered Weaver - @OAK
4.Cliff Lee - @KC
5.Jon Lester - @BAL
6.Philip Hughes - OAK, TOR
7.David Price - TOR
8.Edwin Jackson - @CLE
9.C.J. Wilson - @KC, @MIN
10.Justin Verlander - @MIN
11.Trevor Cahill - @NYY, LAA
12.Josh Beckett - @BAL, CHW
13.Matt Garza - @BAL
14.Dan Haren - @SEA
15.Scott Baker - DET
16.Zack Greinke - DET
17.Max Scherzer - @MIN
18.James Shields - @BAL
19.John Danks - @BOS
20.Francisco Liriano - DET
21.Mark Buehrle - @CLE, @BOS
22.Brett Cecil - @TB, @NYY
23.Wade Davis - TOR, @BAL
24.Ervin Santana - @SEA, @OAK
25.Brandon Morrow - @NYY
26.Shaun Marcum - @TB
27.Clay Buchholz - CHW
28.Colby Lewis - @MIN
29.Ricky Romero - @TB
30.Jeff Niemann - TOR
31.Gavin Floyd - @BOS
32.Vincent Mazzaro - @NYY, LAA
33.Brett Anderson - @NYY
34.Brian Matusz - BOS, TB
35.Gio Gonzalez - LAA
36.John Lackey - CHW

Borderline

37.Rich Harden - @MIN
38.Daisuke Matsuzaka - @BAL
39.A.J. Burnett - OAK
40.Brian Duensing - DET, TEX
41.Tommy Hunter - @KC
42.Josh Tomlin - CHW
43.Armando Galarraga - @MIN, @KC
44.Jason Vargas - LAA
45.Carl Pavano - TEX
46.Mitch Talbot - @SEA
47.Rick Porcello - @KC
48.Jeremy Bonderman - @KC
49.Dallas Braden - @NYY
50.Jeanmar Gomez - @SEA
51.Jeremy Guthrie - TB
52.Javier Vazquez - TOR
53.Freddy Garcia - @CLE
54.Fausto Carmona - @SEA

Extreme Caution Advised

55.Scott Kazmir - @OAK
56.Doug Fister - CLE
57.Kevin Millwood - TB
58.Jake Arrieta - BOS
59.Bradley Bergesen - BOS
60.Dustin Moseley - OAK, TOR
61.Justin Masterson - CHW, @SEA
62.Kyle Davies - TEX, DET
63.Bruce Chen - DET
64.Trevor Bell - @SEA
65.David Pauley - LAA, CLE
66.Luke French - CLE
67.Nick Blackburn - TEX
68.Sean O'Sullivan - TEX
69.Marc Rzepczynski - @NYY
70.Bryan Bullington - TEX

Two-Start Starters:

BAL – Brian Matusz – tentative, as Chris Tillman could give BAL a six-man rotation next week
BOS – Josh Beckett – likely to get two, though Daisuke Matsuzaka’s sore back could impact rotation shuffling
NYY – Dustin Moseley, Philip Hughes – very tentative. I’m not sure how Ivan Nova slots in this week or whether the Yankees will push back a Philip Hughes start due to workload
TB – Wade Davis
TOR – Brett Cecil
CHW – Mark Buehrle
CLE – Mitch Talbot, Justin Masterson – Talbot likely good for two. Masterson less likely due to talk about innings cap
DET – Armando Galarraga
KC – Kyle Davies
MIN – Brian Duensing
LAA – Ervin Santana
OAK – Trevor Cahill, Vincent Mazzaro
SEA – Felix Hernandez, David Pauley – Pauley should be considered tentative
TEX – C.J. Wilson

Notes:
Andy Pettitte is progressing in his rehab of a groin injury, but we probably won’t see more than two more starts from him the rest of the way. I’d guess about Sept. 15 for a return date. … Daisuke Matsuzaka is being pushed to Thursday (9/2) with back soreness, but this doesn’t appear serious. … Cliff Lee’s K:BB sits at an otherworldly 156:12, but he also has an 8.39 ERA in his last four starts. That he’s faced some very tough offenses (Yankees, Rays, Twins) is probably part of the issue. … It looks like 2011 for Zach Britton’s debut. It’s not that the Orioles have a stacked rotation in front of him, but more that they are likely to limit his innings. … Perhaps I’ve underrated Vincent Mazzaro, who now has a 2.56 ERA in August. Because he didn’t fan more than five batters in any of those five starts we need to be somewhat skeptical, but he’s shown enough to be a solid AL-only starter. … Ricky Romero struggled in his last start and had a 5.53 ERA after the break a year ago. Hopefully not a sign of things to come in September. … Chris Tillman will apparently rejoin the Orioles as a starter next month. Sure, he’s yet to experience any sort of big league success, but neither did a lot of guys when they first started. Love him in keeper leagues, like him a little the rest of this way. … There’s a good chance that with Justin Masterson moving to the bullpen at some point soon, that Carlos Carrasco will replace him in the rotation after Masterson’s start on Tuesday. Carrasco has a 2.21 ERA in seven starts since the All-Star break with a strong 38:7 K:BB in 40.2 innings. He’s more than AL-only worthy. … Expect Kevin Slowey (triceps) to return early next week at home against the Royals. Slowey has had challenges staying healthy the last couple years, but since 2008, he has a very good 175:42 in 228 innings. … Jeremy Bonderman is dealing with a sore ribcage, so don’t be surprised if the Tigers shuffle things around this week. … Trevor Cahill was 4-1 with an AL-best 0.92 ERA in August, but with just 18 strikeouts in 39 innings, he’s not quite an elite fantasy starter. … Brandon Morrow’s 10.8 K/9 is a full strikeout per nine innings higher than the second guy on that AL list, Jered Weaver. If Morrow can just continue to fine-tune his command and be a bit more consistent start-to-start, he could be top-15 material. … Dear Mariners scouts, please go check out Michael Pineda. You know, that guy with a 154:34 K:BB in 139.1 innings. The only thing likely holding the 21-year-old back from a big league appearance is the fact he pitched just 47.1 innings a year ago due to elbow soreness. … Bryan Bullington baffles the Yankees, and after Friday’s disaster, has a 13.00 ERA in his two starts since. One of the things I like best about baseball is its unpredictability.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1.Roy Halladay - @LAD, MIL
2.Felix Hernandez - LAA, CLE
3.Adam Wainwright - CIN
4.CC Sabathia - OAK
5.Jered Weaver - @OAK
6.Jair Jurrjens - NYM, @FLA
7.Mat Latos - @ARI
8.Cliff Lee - @KC
9.Jon Lester - @BAL
10.Philip Hughes - OAK, TOR
11.Ted Lilly - SF
12.Ubaldo Jimenez - @SF
13.David Price - TOR
14.Clayton Kershaw - PHI
15.Chris Carpenter - @HOU
16.Josh Johnson - ATL
17.Edwin Jackson - @CLE
18.C.J. Wilson - @KC, @MIN
19.Justin Verlander - @MIN
20.Tim Hudson - NYM
21.Johan Santana - @ATL
22.Matt Cain - @LAD
23.Tommy Hanson - NYM
24.Tim Lincecum - COL
25.Cole Hamels - MIL
26.Roy Oswalt - @LAD
27.Trevor Cahill - @NYY, LAA
28.Josh Beckett - @BAL, CHW
29.Carlos Zambrano - PIT, NYM
30.Jon Niese - @ATL, @CHC
31.Matt Garza - @BAL
32.Johnny Cueto - MIL
33.Dan Haren - @SEA
34.Scott Baker - DET
35.Ryan Dempster - PIT
36.Zack Greinke - DET
37.Yovani Gallardo - @CIN
38.Jamie Garcia - @HOU
39.Max Scherzer - @MIN
40.Brett Myers - @ARI
41.Hiroki Kuroda - PHI, SF
42.James Shields - @BAL
43.John Danks - @BOS
44.Francisco Liriano - DET
45.Chad Billingsley - SF
46.Ricky Nolasco - ATL
47.Ian Kennedy - SD
48.Travis Wood - MIL, @STL
49.Mark Buehrle - @CLE, @BOS
50.Brett Cecil - @TB, @NYY
51.Wade Davis - TOR, @BAL
52.Ervin Santana - @SEA, @OAK
53.Brandon Morrow - @NYY
54.Shaun Marcum - @TB
55.Clay Buchholz - CHW
56.Colby Lewis - @MIN
57.Dan Hudson - HOU
58.Ricky Romero - @TB
59.Bronson Arroyo - @STL
60.Jake Westbrook - @HOU, CIN
61.Jeff Niemann - TOR
62.James McDonald - @CHC
63.Jonathan Sanchez - COL, @LAD
64.Mike Minor - NYM, @FLA
65.Anibal Sanchez - WAS
66.Jon Garland - COL
67.Mike Pelfrey - @ATL
68.R.A. Dickey - @CHC
69.Homer Bailey - MIL
70.Wade LeBlanc - @ARI, COL
71.Gavin Floyd - @BOS
72.Vincent Mazzaro - @NYY, LAA
73.Brett Anderson - @NYY
74.Brian Matusz - BOS, TB
75.Gio Gonzalez - LAA
76.John Lackey - CHW
77.Derek Lowe - @FLA
78.Jorge De La Rosa - @SF, SD
79.Randy Wolf - @CIN, @PHI
80.Clayton Richard - COL
81.Madison Bumgarner - COL
82.Joe Saunders - SD, HOU
83.Rich Harden - @MIN
84.Daisuke Matsuzaka - @BAL
85.A.J. Burnett - OAK
86.Brian Duensing - DET, TEX
87.Jordan Zimmerman - @FLA
88.Jason Hammel - SD
89.Tommy Hunter - @KC
90.Paul Maholm - @CHC, WAS
91.Alejandro Sanabia - WAS, ATL
92.Barry Zito - @LAD
93.Josh Tomlin - CHW
94.Armando Galarraga - @MIN, @KC
95.Wandy Rodriguez - STL
96.Jason Vargas - LAA
97.Carl Pavano - TEX
98.Barry Enright - SD
99.Randy Wells - NYM
100.Casey Coleman – NYM