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Pitching Value Meter: Two Starts for Hamels

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

I'm not much of a fan of interleague play. Don't care about the history behind the Cubs-Red Sox series and wow, Dodgers vs. White Sox. Thrilling.

Twitter: Yes, I'm on Twitter (@vtadave).

For this week May 23-29

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Cole Hamels - CIN, @NYM
2. Clayton Kershaw - @HOU, FLA
3. Jair Jurrjens - @PIT, CIN
4. Josh Johnson - @LAD
5. Yovani Gallardo - WAS, SF
6. Matt Cain - FLA, @MIL
7. Ricky Nolasco - @SF, @LAD
8. Roy Halladay - CIN
9. Tim Lincecum - FLA
10. Cliff Lee - CIN
11. Bud Norris - LAD, ARI
12. Jaime Garcia - @COL
13. Shaun Marcum - SF
14. Zack Greinke - WAS
15. Kyle Lohse - @SD, @COL
16. Jorge De La Rosa - ARI, STL
17. Chad Billingsley - @HOU
18. Matt Garza - PIT
19. Tommy Hanson - CIN
20. Jhoulys Chacin - ARI
21. Tim Hudson - @PIT
22. Dan Hudson - @HOU
23. Johnny Cueto - @PHI, @ATL
24. Anibal Sanchez - @SF
25. Roy Oswalt - @NYM
26. Ryan Dempster - NYM, PIT
27. Jonathon Niese - @CHC, PHI
28. Bronson Arroyo - @PHI, @ATL
29. Madison Bumgarner - FLA
30. Chris Narveson - WAS
31. Derek Lowe - CIN
32. Wandy Rodriguez - ARI
33. Kyle McClellan - @SD
34. Ian Kennedy - @COL
35. Ubaldo Jimenez - STL
36. Hiroki Kuroda - FLA
37. Tim Stauffer - @WAS
38. Mat Latos - STL
39. James McDonald - ATL
40. Dustin Moseley - STL, @WAS
41. Edinson Volquez - @ATL
42. Chris Carpenter - @SD
43. Charlie Morton - ATL

Borderline Depending on League Format

44. Homer Bailey - @PHI (tough venue)
45. Carlos Zambrano - NYM
46. Dillon Gee - @CHC
47. Ted Lilly - @HOU
48. Jonathan Sanchez - @MIL
49. Jordan Zimmerman - @MIL
50. Tom Gorzelanny - @MIL, SD
51. Jason Marquis - @MIL
52. Josh Collmenter - @COL
53. Travis Wood - @PHI
54. Vance Worley - CIN, @NYM
55. Clayton Richard - @WAS
56. Ryan Vogelsong - @MIL
57. Brett Myers - ARI
58. J.A. Happ - LAD
59. Randy Wolf - SF
60. Paul Maholm - @CHC
61. Jason Hammel - ARI
62. Aaron Harang - STL
63. R.A. Dickey - @CHC
64. John Lannan - SD
65. Randy Wells - PIT

Extreme Caution Advised

66. Chris Volstad - @SF
67. Aneury Rodriguez - LAD
68. Chris Capuano - PHI
69. Kevin Correia - @CHC
70. Zach Duke - @HOU
71. Clayton Mortesen - STL
72. Javier Vazquez - @LAD
73. Jon Garland - FLA
74. Mike Pelfrey - PHI
75. Livan Hernandez - @MIL
76. Doug Davis - NYM
77. Jeff Karstens - @CHC
78. Joe Saunders - @COL, @HOU
79. Jake Westbrook - @COL
80. Micah Owings - @COL
81. Greg Reynolds ARI

Projected No. 5 starters skipped:
Braves No. 5 starter

Two-start starters:
Jair Jurrjens, Ricky Nolasco, Jonathon Niese, Cole Hamels, Vance Worley, Tom Gorzelanny, Livan Hernandez, Ryan Dempster, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Bud Norris, Yovani Gallardo, Charlie Morton, Kyle Lohse, Joe Saunders, Jorge De La Rosa, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin Moseley, Matt Cain.

Notes:
We're in a bit of flux this week with the Cubs rotation. I'm projecting a return this week for Randy Wells (shoulder), a move that should result in Casey Coleman's demotion. This shouldn't affect Ryan Dempster's two-start status, but there could be some shuffling. ... Change in Arizona where Armando Galarraga was shipped out and Zach Duke (hand) will make his season debut. Let's just say I won't be rushing out to grab Duke. ... Arizona and Colorado have a doubleheader scheduled for Tuesday, so both will need spot starters this week. Expect Greg Reynolds and Micah Owings to get the nods. Owings actually gets the nod Saturday (5/21), but his big-league stint is probably going to be limited to two starts. ... Sure, it was the Dodgers, where Loney/Miles/Carroll/Uribe isn't exactly Garvey/Lopes/Russell/Cey, but Madison Bumgarner sure looked good Thursday, nearly pulling out his first career shutout. His fastball was still hitting 93 mph in the ninth inning, and his command was impressive to both sides of the plate. ... Entering Friday's action, no pitcher in the game had more strikeouts this month than Bud Norris (32). He's 1-2 for the month, however, thanks to the lack of run support (11 Astros runs in four starts), but possibly with the exception of tough road starts, he's become worth playing each week in all formats. ... Clayton Kershaw is continuing the improvement in his control that he showed over the second half of 2010, posting a 3.0 BB/9 in his first 10 starts. It wouldn't surprise to see that number continuing to go down given Kershaw is, amazingly, still just 23. ... Don't look now, but it appears Edinson Volquez may have his control back. Volquez fanned nine Cubs over six innings in his last start while walking just one. Considering his BB/9 rate was 7.0 entering that game, I'd call that progress. ... Joe Blanton is headed for the DL with an elbow injury, with Vance Worley getting the call to replace him. We aren't 100 percent sure that Worley is a two-start guy this week, but it appears so based on where Blanton's slot would come up. Worley should be owned in deeper leagues given that he's been impressive (1.13 ERA) in limited MLB action (16 innings). ...Charlie Morton has rode a 3.5 G/F to a shocking 2.62 ERA in 55 innings. I say "shocking" because it's come with a 29:29 K:BB. That said, Morton has walked just three batters over 16.2 innings in his last two starts, so perhaps he's at least partially turned a corner. ... Dave Duncan has probably been too busy fixing Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan to devote much attention to Jake Westbrook, who sports a 6.07 ERA, less velocity and a declining strikeout rate. Oh, and also more walks. Nice combination. ...


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. CC Sabathia - TOR, @SEA
2. Justin Verlander - TB, BOS
3. Josh Beckett - @CLE, @DET
4. Jered Weaver - OAK, @MIN
5. Dan Haren - OAK, @MIN
6. Zach Britton - KC, @OAK
7. Jon Lester - @CLE
8. Felix Hernandez - NYY
9. Clay Buchholz - @CLE, @DET
10. Bartolo Colon - TOR, @SEA
11. Alexi Ogando - CHW, KC
12. David Price - CLE
13. John Danks - @TEX, @TOR
14. Ricky Romero - @NYY, CHW
15. Trevor Cahill - @LAA
16. James Shields - CLE
17. Justin Masterson - BOS, @TB
18. C.J. Wilson - CHW
19. Brandon Morrow - CHW
20. Erik Bedard - @MIN
21. Brett Anderson - @LAA
22. Colby Lewis - KC
23. Gio Gonzalez - BAL
24. Francisco Liriano - OAK
25. Michael Pineda - NYY
26. Ervin Santana - OAK
27. Jason Vargas - @MIN, NYY
28. Gavin Floyd - @TEX
29. Jake Peavy - @TEX
30. Max Scherzer - BOS
31. Phil Humber - @TOR
32. Freddy Garcia - TOR
33. Carl Pavano - SEA, OAK
34. A.J. Burnett - @SEA
35. Doug Fister - @MIN
36. Luke Hochevar - @BAL, @TEX
37. Jeremy Hellickson - @DET, CLE

Borderline Depending on League Format

38. Nick Blackburn - SEA
39. Joel Pineiro - OAK
40. Edwin Jackson - @TOR
41. Jeremy Guthrie - @OAK
42. Jake Arrieta - KC
43. Wade Davis - @DET
44. Fausto Carmona - BOS
45. Mark Buehrle - @TOR
46. Phil Coke - TB, BOS
47. Josh Tomlin - @TB
48. Brad Penny - TB
49. Derek Holland - CHW
50. Alex White - BOS
51. Rick Porcello - BOS
52. Brian Duensing - SEA
53. Danny Duffy - @TEX
54. Scott Baker - OAK

Extreme Caution Advised

55. Matt Harrison - KC
56. Alfredo Aceves - @DET
57. Kyle Drabek - CHW
58. Jesse Litsch - @NYY, CHW
59. Carlos Carrasco - @TB
60. Nathan Adcock - @BAL
61. Bradley Bergesen - KC
62. Chris Tillman - @OAK
63. Tim Wakefield - @DET
64. Andrew Sonnanstine - @DET
65. Jo-Jo Reyes - @NYY
66. Jeff Francis - @BAL
67. Sean O'Sullivan - @TEX
68. Tyler Chatwood - @MIN
69. Josh Outman - @LAA, BAL
70. Random A's starter - @LAA, BAL

Projected No. 5 starters skipped:
Ivan Nova seems like a no-brainer, but if he's not skipped, CC Sabathia gets just one start.


Two-start starters:
Zach Britton, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, Bartolo Colon, CC Sabathia (maybe), Jeremy Hellickson, Jesse Litsch, Ricky Romero, John Danks, Justin Masterson, Phil Coke, Justin Verlander, Danny Duffy, Carl Pavano, Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Brandon McCarthy, Josh Outman (maybe), Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Alexi Ogando

Notes: Brian Matusz
(back) could return as early as the week, so continue to monitor his progress. He'll make a minor league rehab start Saturday and may not need another after that. Bradley Bergesen seems to be the leading candidate to be sent to the bullpen. The Orioles may also be considering booting Chris Tillman form the rotation.... I might be completely wrong in my predictions for the Royals' rotation this week. Luke Hochevar should get two starts, but beyond that, we'll see. Nathan Adcock and Danny Duffy appear to be in, with Kyle Davies on the DL with a "sore shoulder". ... Not sure who is replacing Tyson Ross (oblique) in the Oakland rotation. I'll guess Josh Outman for now, but Outman has a 1.75 WHIP in Triple-A, so that's not 100 percent certain. Guillermo Moscoso is probably Plan B. ... The Mariners could use a Thursday off-day to skip Michael Pineda, but as there's been no word of that yet, he's in the rankings this week. ... Scott Kazmir (back) is closing in on a rehab assignment, and unless that goes well, he could also be closing in on being released. ... I'm not worried about the six walks Danny Duffy tallied in his debut, as he had a 2.5 BB/9 this year for Triple-A Omaha and has usually had good control throughout the minors. Duffy threw harder than I thought, averaging 93.5 mph with his fastball in start No. 1 of many. ... Friday we learned that Brandon McCarthy was put on the DL with a shoulder injury. With guys like Tyson Ross, Dallas Braden and Bobby Cramer also sidelined, are we looking at a return of Dave Stewart? In all seriousness, no idea as of late Friday night who is getting the nod. ... Beyond weird to think that Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia are two of the Yankees' top three starters, but it's true given Colon's stem cell-infused resurgence and Garcia's 3.12 ERA. ... Alex White left his Friday start with a finger injury, so monitor his status up until lineup-setting day.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. CC Sabathia - TOR, @SEA
2. Justin Verlander - TB, BOS
3. Josh Beckett - @CLE, @DET
4. Jered Weaver - OAK, @MIN
5. Cole Hamels - CIN, @NYM
6. Clayton Kershaw - @HOU, FLA
7. Dan Haren - OAK, @MIN
8. Jair Jurrjens - @PIT, CIN
9. Zach Britton - KC, @OAK
10. Josh Johnson - @LAD
11. Yovani Gallardo - WAS, SF
12. Matt Cain - FLA, @MIL
13. Jon Lester - @CLE
14. Ricky Nolasco - @SF, @LAD
15. Roy Halladay - CIN
16. Tim Lincecum - FLA
17. Cliff Lee - CIN
18. Bud Norris - LAD, ARI
19. Felix Hernandez - NYY
20. Jaime Garcia - @COL
21. Shaun Marcum - SF
22. Zack Greinke - WAS
23. Kyle Lohse - @SD, @COL
24. Clay Buchholz - @CLE, @DET
25. Jorge De La Rosa - ARI, STL
26. Bartolo Colon - TOR, @SEA
27. Alexi Ogando - CHW, KC
28. Chad Billingsley - @HOU
29. David Price - CLE
30. John Danks - @TEX, @TOR
31. Ricky Romero - @NYY, CHW
32. Trevor Cahill - @LAA
33. Matt Garza - PIT
34. Tommy Hanson - CIN
35. Jhoulys Chacin - ARI
36. Tim Hudson - @PIT
37. James Shields - CLE
38. Dan Hudson - @HOU
39. Justin Masterson - BOS, @TB
40. Johnny Cueto - @PHI, @ATL
41. C.J. Wilson - CHW
42. Anibal Sanchez - @SF
43. Brandon Morrow - CHW
44. Erik Bedard - @MIN
45. Brett Anderson - @LAA
46. Roy Oswalt - @NYM
47. Colby Lewis - KC
48. Gio Gonzalez - BAL
49. Francisco Liriano - OAK
50. Michael Pineda - NYY
51. Ryan Dempster - NYM, PIT
52. Jonathon Niese - @CHC, PHI
53. Bronson Arroyo - @PHI, @ATL
54. Madison Bumgarner - FLA
55. Ervin Santana - OAK
56. Jason Vargas - @MIN, NYY
57. Chris Narveson - WAS
58. Derek Lowe - CIN
59. Wandy Rodriguez - ARI
60. Kyle McClellan - @SD
61. Gavin Floyd - @TEX
62. Ian Kennedy - @COL
63. Ubaldo Jimenez - STL
64. Jake Peavy - @TEX
65. Hiroki Kuroda - FLA
66. Tim Stauffer - @WAS
67. Max Scherzer - BOS
68. Phil Humber - @TOR
69. Mat Latos - STL
70. James McDonald - ATL
71. Dustin Moseley - STL, @WAS
72. Edinson Volquez - @ATL
73. Chris Carpenter - @SD
74. Charlie Morton ATL
75. Freddy Garcia - TOR
76. Carl Pavano - SEA, OAK
77. A.J. Burnett - @SEA
78. Doug Fister - @MIN
79. Luke Hochevar - @BAL, @TEX
80. Homer Bailey - @PHI (tough venue)
81. Carlos Zambrano - NYM
82. Jeremy Hellickson - @DET, CLE
83. Dillon Gee - @CHC
84. Ted Lilly - @HOU
85. Jonathan Sanchez - @MIL
86. Jordan Zimmerman - @MIL
87. Nick Blackburn - SEA
88. Joel Pineiro - OAK
89. Edwin Jackson - @TOR
90. Jeremy Guthrie - @OAK
91. Jake Arrieta - KC
92. Tom Gorzelanny - @MIL, SD
93. Wade Davis - @DET
94. Fausto Carmona - BOS
95. Jason Marquis - @MIL
96. Mark Buehrle - @TOR
97. Phil Coke - TB, BOS
98. Josh Tomlin - @TB
99. Brad Penny - TB
100. Josh Collmenter - @COL

Regan, a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Follow @vtadave on Twitter.