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Pitching Value Meter: Roy Wonder

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Like last week's Meter, this one is also a tough one to forecast with anything close to 100-percent accuracy. A lot of teams are pitching Mr. Undecided this week, so I'm left making several judgment calls. Has to be done, but if you're up in arms that I forecast one start for Rodrigo Lopez and he winds up with two, please check yourself.

For the week 7/18– 7/24

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Roy Halladay - @CHC, SD
2. Cliff Lee - @CHC, SD
3. Ubaldo Jimenez - ATL, @ARI
4. Clayton Kershaw - @SF
5. Cole Hamels - SD
6. Chris Carpenter - @PIT
7. Tim Lincecum - LAD
8. Anibal Sanchez - SD, NYM
9. Chad Billingsley - @SF, WAS
10. Jair Jurrjens - @CIN
11. Ryan Vogelsong - LAD, MIL
12. Brandon Beachy - @COL, @CIN
13. Tim Stauffer - @FLA, @PHI
14. Zack Greinke - @ARI
15. Ian Kennedy - MIL
16. Tommy Hanson - @COL
17. Jordan Zimmermann - @HOU
18. Dan Hudson - COL
19. Johnny Cueto - @PIT
20. Madison Bumgarner - LAD
21. Ricky Nolasco - SD
22. Hiroki Kuroda - WAS
23. Yovani Gallardo - @ARI, @SF
24. Wandy Rodriguez - @CHC
25. Randy Wolf - @ARI, @SF
26. Jeff Karstens - CIN
27. Matt Cain - MIL
28. Jaime Garcia - @PIT
29. Mike Leake - @PIT
30. Shaun Marcum - @SF
31. Rubby De La Rosa - @SF
32. Jhoulys Chacin - ATL
33. Tim Hudson - @COL
34. Matt Garza - PHI
35. Ryan Dempster - PHI
36. Bud Norris - @CHC
37. Dillon Gee - STL, @FLA
38. Jonathon Niese - STL
39. Brett Myers - WAS
40. John Lannan - @LAD
41. Chris Capuano - FLA, @FLA
42. Josh Collmenter - MIL, COL
43. Ted Lilly - WAS
44. Mat Latos - @PHI
45. Dustin Moseley - @FLA
46. Javier Vazquez - SD
47. Aaron Harang - @FLA
48. Carlos Zambrano - HOU
49. Jordan Lyles - WAS, @CHC

Borderline Depending on League Format

50. Derek Lowe - @COL, @CIN
51. Chris Narveson - @ARI
52. Vance Worley - @CHC
53. Bronson Arroyo - ATL
54. Jason Marquis - @HOU, @LAD
55. Barry Zito - MIL
56. Homer Bailey - ATL
57. Paul Maholm - STL
58. Mike Pelfrey - @FLA
59. Kevin Correia - STL
60. Joe Saunders - MIL
61. R.A. Dickey - STL
62. Tom Gorzelanny - @LAD
63. Livan Hernandez - @HOU
64. Jason Hammel - ATL, @ARI
65. Chris Volstad - NYM
66. Randy Wells - HOU
67. Dontrelle Willis - @PIT, ATL

Extreme Caution Advised

68. Cory Luebke - @PHI
69. Jake Westbrook - @NYM
70. Juan Nicasio - ATL
71. James McDonald - CIN, STL
72. Clay Hensley - @NYM, NYM
73. Rodrigo Lopez - PHI, HOU
74. J.A. Happ - WAS
75. Charlie Morton - CIN
76. Kyle Lohse - @NYM, @PIT
77. Kyle McClellan - @NYM
78. Barry Enright - MIL, COL
79. Aaron Cook - @ARI

Notes:
There's probably nothing to it, but the Tigers are reportedly “checking in” on Ubaldo Jimenez. I can't imagine the Rockies dealing their ace for anything less than the Tigers' top three prospects, but Detroit is certainly aggressively shopping for pitching. ... If you're holding out hope that Johan Santana (shoulder) will return and carry your team to a title, it's probably best to temper those expectations. Santana could return as soon as a month from now, but I'm just not seeing a huge return. Ideally, for the Mets, he comes back and makes four or five starts to boost his offseason trade value. ... Clay Hensley had a 9:9 K:BB in 15 innings out of the bullpen, so it's hard to see him having much success in the rotation this week unless perhaps the Mets trade Carlos Beltran. Hensley is expected to face Chris Capuano not once, but twice this week. Riveting indeed. ... With an off-day Thursday, the Phillies, I assume, will go with a four-man rotation this week, making both Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay two-start starters. Halladay could just get one if the Phillies elect to use Kyle Kendrick, but either way you're starting Halladay, I hope. ... Barry Enright will get the call to replace Zach Duke for Monday's start for the D-Backs. Enright looks like a Quad-A guy at this point, so stay away. ... Yovani Gallardo's velocity remains strong, so he's not likely hiding an injury, but the results have been so unpredictable. I'm also a little worried that he's thrown the seventh-most pitches in the game. ... Jake Westbrook, Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan have 5.50-plus ERAs this month for the Cardinals. At some point the Cardinals probably consider stretching Lance Lynn (23:4 K:BB in 21.2 innings) out and inserting him in place of one of those three.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Michael Pineda - @TOR, @BOS
2. Justin Verlander - @MIN
3. Jered Weaver - @BAL
4. Felix Hernandez - @BOS
5. Josh Beckett - SEA
6. Dan Haren - TEX
7. Jon Lester - SEA
8. CC Sabathia - @TB
9. David Price - NYY
10. James Shields - NYY
11. Scott Baker - CLE, DET
12. Francisco Liriano - CLE, DET
13. Alexi Ogando - @LAA, TOR
14. Jeremy Hellickson - NYY, @KC
15. Justin Masterson - @MIN
16. Derek Holland - @LAA
17. C.J. Wilson - @LAA
18. Philip Humber - @CLE
19. Brandon Morrow - SEA
20. Ricky Romero - @TEX
21. Colby Lewis - @TOR
22. Gio Gonzalez - @NYY
23. Matt Harrison - @TOR
24. Tyler Chatwood - TEX, @BAL
25. Edwin Jackson - @CLE
26. Nick Blackburn - CLE, DET
27. Doug Fister - @TOR
28. A.J. Burnett - @TB, OAK
29. Josh Tomlin - @MIN
30. Ervin Santana - TEX
31. Carlos Carrasco - CHW
32. Jason Vargas - @TOR
33. Carl Pavano - DET
34. Brian Duensing - DET

Borderline Depending on League Format

35. Guillermo Moscoso - @DET
36. Jake Peavy - @KC
37. Jeff Niemann - @KC
38. Max Scherzer - @MIN
39. Felipe Paulino - TB
40. Erik Bedard - @BOS (tough way to return from DL)
41. Bruce Chen - CHW
42. Trevor Cahill - @NYY
43. Mark Buehrle - @KC
44. Andrew Miller - @BAL
45. Gavin Floyd - @CLE
46. Brad Penny - @MIN
47. Freddy Garcia - @TB
48. Wade Davis - @KC
49. John Danks - @KC
50. Jeremy Guthrie - BOS
51. Jake Arrieta - BOS
52. Phil Hughes - OAK
53. Rick Porcello - OAK, @MIN
54. Joel Pineiro - @BAL
55. Charlie Furbush - OAK
56. Danny Duffy - CHW
57. Zach McAllister - @MIN

Extreme Caution Advised

58. Luke Hochevar - TB
59. John Lackey - SEA
60. Fausto Carmona - @MIN, CHW
61. Carlos Villanueva - @TEX
62. Chris Tillman - BOS, LAA
63. Alfredo Simon - LAA
64. Tim Wakefield - @BAL
65. Kyle Weiland - @BAL
66. Bartolo Colon - @TB, OAK
67. Alex Cobb - NYY
68. Brett Cecil - SEA, @TEX
69. Jo-Jo Reyes - SEA
70. Jeanmar Gomez - CHW
71. Jeff Francis - TB
72. Mitch Atkins - LAA
73. Kyle Davies - CHW
74. Anthony Swarzak - CLE
75. Brandon McCarthy - @DET
76. Rich Harden - @NYY

Notes: Bartolo Colon
has been brutal since returning from a hamstring injury, but don't drop him just yet. Reserve him this week and hope that Colon is just struggling to trust that he's 100 percent. ... Monitor his progress over the weekend, but Scott Baker (elbow) appears set to return on Monday barring a setback in his throwing regimen. ... Jon Lester (lat) appears to be set to return during the weekend series against Seattle, but write his name in pencil for now. ... Consecutive shutouts will do this, but I'm starting to trust Derek Holland a bit more now. He's been woefully inconsistent in his brief career, but the talent is there for him to be the team's best pitcher the rest of the way. Hop aboard the bandwagon if you dare. ... Tough to see Brett Anderson having to undergo Tommy John surgery. That begs the question as to why he didn't go under the knife right away. Now we're probably looking at a late-2012 return at best. ... The only thing I know for sure regarding the Orioles' rotation this week is that Jeremy Guthrie and Jake Arrieta are starting on Tuesday/Wednesday. Other than that – crapshoot. I suspect we'll see Alfredo Simon, Mitch Atkins and Chris Tillman. Yucko. ... Wade Davis is expected to return this week from a forearm injury, so while we don't know the exact return date, we'll slot him in against the Royals. ... I'm going with a six-man rotation for the White Sox this week because, well, I don't have an inkling that they won't lean that way with John Danks (oblique) returning this week. ... Erik Bedard (knee) should return this week, but with that start projected to be in Boston, he's a sketchy play in shallower formats. ... I can't recall who the pitching coach is in Cleveland, but with breakouts from Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin, as well as perhaps Carlos Carrasco, the guy deserves a raise. Then to think that Alex White (finger) and Drew Pomeranz (prospect) may be as talented as those guys and you can see the Indians having a nice run over the next several years. ... Jo-Jo Reyes has received the fifth most run support in baseball yet he's managed to go just 5-7. Safe to say Reyes is on a short leash, with Zach Stewart likely next in line.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. Roy Halladay - @CHC, SD
2. Cliff Lee - @CHC, SD
3. Michael Pineda - @TOR, @BOS
4. Justin Verlander - @MIN
5. Jered Weaver - @BAL
6. Felix Hernandez - @BOS
7. Ubaldo Jimenez - ATL, @ARI
8. Clayton Kershaw - @SF
9. Cole Hamels - SD
10. Chris Carpenter - @PIT
11. Tim Lincecum - LAD
12. Josh Beckett - SEA
13. Dan Haren - TEX
14. Jon Lester - SEA
15. Anibal Sanchez - SD, NYM
16. Chad Billingsley - @SF, WAS
17. CC Sabathia - @TB
18. Jair Jurrjens - @CIN
19. David Price - NYY
20. James Shields - NYY
21. Ryan Vogelsong - LAD, MIL
22. Scott Baker - CLE, DET
23. Brandon Beachy - @COL, @CIN
24. Tim Stauffer - @FLA, @PHI
25. Francisco Liriano - CLE, DET
26. Zack Greinke - @ARI
27. Ian Kennedy - MIL
28. Tommy Hanson - @COL
29. Alexi Ogando - @LAA, TOR
30. Jordan Zimmermann - @HOU
31. Jeremy Hellickson - NYY, @KC
32. Dan Hudson - COL
33. Johnny Cueto - @PIT
34. Justin Masterson - @MIN
35. Madison Bumgarner - LAD
36. Ricky Nolasco - SD
37. Hiroki Kuroda - WAS
38. Yovani Gallardo - @ARI, @SF
39. Derek Holland - @LAA
40. C.J. Wilson - @LAA
41. Philip Humber - @CLE
42. Wandy Rodriguez - @CHC
43. Randy Wolf - @ARI, @SF
44. Brandon Morrow - SEA
45. Jeff Karstens - CIN
46. Ricky Romero - @TEX
47. Matt Cain - MIL
48. Jaime Garcia - @PIT
49. Mike Leake - @PIT
50. Shaun Marcum - @SF
51. Rubby De La Rosa - @SF
52. Jhoulys Chacin - ATL
53. Colby Lewis - @TOR
54. Tim Hudson - @COL
55. Gio Gonzalez - @NYY
56. Matt Garza - PHI
57. Ryan Dempster - PHI
58. Matt Harrison - @TOR
59. Bud Norris - @CHC
60. Dillon Gee - STL, @FLA
61. Tyler Chatwood - TEX, @BAL
62. Edwin Jackson - @CLE
63. Nick Blackburn - CLE, DET
64. Jonathon Niese - STL
65. Doug Fister - @TOR
66. A.J. Burnett - @TB, OAK
67. Josh Tomlin - @MIN
68. Ervin Santana - TEX
69. Carlos Carrasco - CHW
70. Brett Myers - WAS
71. John Lannan - @LAD
72. Jason Vargas - @TOR
73. Carl Pavano - DET
74. Chris Capuano - FLA, @FLA
75. Brian Duensing - DET
76. Josh Collmenter - MIL, COL
77. Ted Lilly - WAS
78. Mat Latos - @PHI
79. Dustin Moseley - @FLA
80. Javier Vazquez - SD
81. Aaron Harang - @FLA
82. Carlos Zambrano - HOU
83. Jordan Lyles - WAS, @CHC
84. Guillermo Moscoso - @DET
85. Jake Peavy - @KC
86. Derek Lowe - @COL, @CIN
87. Jeff Niemann - @KC
88. Max Scherzer - @MIN
89. Felipe Paulino - TB
90. Erik Bedard - @BOS (tough way to return from DL)
91. Bruce Chen - CHW
92. Chris Narveson - @ARI
93. Vance Worley - @CHC
94. Bronson Arroyo - ATL
95. Trevor Cahill - @NYY
96. Jason Marquis - @HOU, @LAD
97. Barry Zito – MIL
98. Homer Bailey - ATL
99. Mark Buehrle - @KC
100. Andrew Miller - @BAL

Regan, a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Follow @vtadave on Twitter.