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Pitching Value Meter: Move Over Felix, Kuma's the King

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week June 10-16

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Clayton Kershaw - ARI, at PIT
2. Adam Wainwright - at NYM (how is no one talking about him?)
3. Matt Harvey - CHC
4. Mat Latos - at CHC
5. Cliff Lee - at MIN (already surpassed 2012 win total)
6. Lance Lynn - at MIA
7. Shelby Miller - at NYM (NL ERA leader)
8. Mike Minor - SF (NL WHIP leader)
9. Jeff Samardzija - CIN
10. Patrick Corbin - at LAD
11. A.J. Burnett - SF
12. Zack Greinke - ARI (looked strong in last two even if stats at COL don't show it)
13. Matt Cain - at PIT (three of last four are strong; finally coming around?)
14. Madison Bumgarner - at ATL (three of last four are terrible; has seven two-plus BB outings)
15. Jordan Zimmermann - at CLE (a tough matchup plus the lack of Ks bumps him this week)
16. Homer Bailey - at CHC, MIL
17. Matt Garza - CIN, at NYM
18. Cole Hamels - at MIN, at COL
19. Gio Gonzalez - at COL
20. Trevor Cahill - at SD
21. Paul Maholm - at SD (these next four lefties have all impressed a ton this year)
22. Hyun-Jin Ryu - ARI
23. Francisco Liriano - SF
24. Travis Wood - CIN
25. Jose Fernandez - STL (not getting discussed NEARLY enough)
26. Julio Teheran - at SD, SF (22-year-old left for dead at draft table showing why he was an elite prospect)
27. Michael Wacha - at NYM, at MIA (prime two-start slate)
28. Scott Feldman - CIN, at NYM
29. Tony Cingrani - at CHC, MIL (didn't whine about demotion, instead went and dropped a 2.08 ERA and 23 Ks on Triple-A in 17.3 IP over 3 starts)
30. Ricky Nolasco - MIL, STL (easy to forget in MIA, but he's been solid)
31. Jonathon Niese - STL, CHC (PPD games push him to Tuesday, two-start week; 1.33 ERA last 3)
32. Yovani Gallardo - at MIA, at CIN
33. Wade Miley - at LAD, at SD
34. Tim Lincecum - at PIT, at ATL
35. Jason Marquis - ATL, ARI (component skills are weak, but pair of home starts is intriguing)
36. Kris Medlen - SF
37. Mike Leake - at CHC
38. Tim Hudson - at SD (he'll get popped every so often, but year-end numbers always worth draft cost)
39. Andrew Cashner - ATL
40. Jeff Locke - LAD (23-percent K rate in last five after 13 percent in first seven)
41. Shaun Marcum - CHC (4.10 ERA in last four, but, more important, 26:4 K:BB in 26.3 IP)
42. Kyle Kendrick - at COL
43. Bronson Arroyo - MIL (routinely dismissed - myself included - yet keeps plugging away)
44. Kyle Lohse - at CIN
45. Eric Stults - ARI (much better home, but not simply a Petco product this year)
46. Jorge de la Rosa - WAS
47. Jeremy Hefner - STL (2.84 ERA and 19 K in last 19 IP spanning three starts)
48. Tyler Skaggs - at SD
49. Gerrit Cole - SF, LAD (speculation is he'll start Tuesday. Not guaranteed, though, and thus neither is the second start vs. LAD)
50. Tyler Cloyd - at MIN
51. Dillon Gee - STL (back-to-back gems earns him some trust even in a tough matchup)

CAUTION

52. Ian Kennedy - at LAD (just hasn't been more than mediocre this year and then boom, this epic implosion in StL)
53. Jhoulys Chacin - WAS
54. Barry Zito - at PIT
55. Ross Detwiler - at COL (might be at CLE instead as rainouts, return from injury put things in doubt)
56. Jacob Turner - MIL (two starts against poor-hitting teams doesn't convince of a turned corner yet)
57. Juan Nicasio - PHI
58. Tom Koehler - STL (like him a bit long-term, but not against STL)
59. Tyler Lyons - at MIA
60. Edwin Jackson - at NYM
61. Clayton Richard - ARI
62. Jonathan Pettibone - at COL
63. Kevin Slowey - MIL ("Boy, that escalated quickly!" Ron Burgundy re: Slowey's ERA, which went from 1.81 to 4.16 in a month)
64. Alfredo Figaro - at MIA
65. Dan Haren - at COL, at CLE (a terrifying two-pack)
66. Edinson Volquez - ATL
67. Ted Lilly - at PIT (might miss weekend start and, thus, this one, stay tuned)
68. Wily Peralta - at MIA
69. Nate Karns - at CLE
70. Stephen Fife - at PIT
71. Chad Gaudin - at ATL
72. Tom Gorzelanny - at CIN
73. Jon Garland - WAS, PHI
74. Jeff Francis - PHI
75. Pirates 5th starter - LAD (lost Rodriguez and Gomez, so stay tuned; McDonald is rehabbing in Triple-A)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Hisashi Iwakuma - HOU, at OAK (yep, top dog for Iwakuma)
2. Yu Darvish - TOR
3. Justin Verlander - at KC (secondary stuff has been excellent lately; deserved better fate vs. CLE on Fri)
4. Felix Hernandez - at OAK
5. Max Scherzer - at KC (how are the Tigers only 33-26 with this rotation?)
6. Anibal Sanchez - at MIN (if you've never watched an outing of his, treat yo' self!)
7. Jon Lester - at TB, at BAL (three-start run vs. CLE, NYY and TEX leaves him with 5.12 ERA in 19.3 IP; he'll be fine)
8. CC Sabathia - at OAK, at LAA (similar run v. BAL, TB, BOS, and CLE had 4.85 ERA in 29.7 IP; run was a DET outing short of very best offenses in the AL)
9. Alex Cobb - BOS, KC
10. Doug Fister - at KC, at MIN (Cobb, Fister 23rd, 26th in ERA in last calendar year at 3.36, 3.44; studs)
11. Jered Weaver - at BAL, NYY (he found some Ks on the DL, hopefully they are legit, but still great if not)
12. Derek Holland - CLE, TOR
13. Chris Sale - TOR (one mistake to Josh Donaldson led to worst start in last eight; has 1.85 ERA in those eight even w/Donaldson grand slam)
14. James Shields - DET
15. Clay Buchholz - at BAL (either still cheating or never was; gimme the latter)
16. Hiroki Kuroda - at OAK
17. Justin Masterson - WAS
18. Matt Moore - KC (first team to really punish him for BB; more will if he doesn't tighten up)
19. Alexi Ogando - CLE, TOR (great results, but soft skills hence his split from the top two-start guys)
20. John Lackey - at TB (would normally be slated for two, but postponement creates need for substitute on Wednesday, Dempster to start Saturday where Lackey's second would be)
21. Jarrod Parker - NYY (since 6 ER v. BAL on 4/25: 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 20% K, 8% BB in 51.7 IP)
22. Ervin Santana - at TB
23. Bartolo Colon - NYY, SEA (yielding 1 BB every 2 GS improves margin for error)
24. Corey Kluber - at TEX, WAS (lasting 6 IP despite allowing 6 ER in 2 IP at NYY was impressive)
25. R.A. Dickey - at CWS, at TEX
26. Dylan Axelrod - TOR, at HOU (fortunate to leave SEA scoreless, but 3.10 ERA in last five shows promise)
27. Josh Johnson - at TEX (playing it safe with his second outing back from the DL)
28. C.J. Wilson - NYY
29. Andy Pettitte - at LAA
30. Tommy Milone - SEA (chronic road struggler, homerun yielder now has 14 IP with 2 ER in CLE and MIL ... ah, baseball!)
31. Jose Quintana - TOR
32. Dan Straily - NYY
33. A.J. Griffin - SEA
34. Bud Norris - at SEA (since DET smoked him for 7 ER: 1.73 ERA in 26 IP)
35. Zach McAllister - at TEX
36. Ryan Dempster - at BAL (great Ks but at what cost?)
37. Scott Kazmir - WAS
38. Miguel Gonzalez - LAA, BOS (Since May 1: 3.52 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 30 K in 30.7 IP; tough offenses keep ranking down)
39. Hector Santiago - at HOU
40. Phil Hughes - at OAK
41. David Phelps - at LAA
42. Chris Tillman - BOS
43. Kevin Gausman - BOS
44. Rick Porcello - at MIN (throw out at LAA outing and ERA goes from 5.21 to 3.84, throw out two GS v. MIN and it goes from 3.84 to 3.13)
45. Justin Grimm - TOR

CAUTION

46. Nick Tepesch - CLE (Grimm over Tepesch is simply an avoidance of CLE whenever possible)
47. Jason Hammel - LAA
48. Jason Vargas - at BAL (must be a favorable opponent to mess around with him on the road)
49. Ubaldo Jimenez - at TEX (lures you into his lair & then smashes your neck with a bevy of earned runs)
50. Jeremy Hellickson - KC (just a mess)
51. John Danks - at HOU
52. Chris Archer - BOS
53. Jeremy Guthrie - DET, at TB
54. Tommy Hanson - NYY
55. Joe Saunders - at OAK
56. Jordan Lyles - at SEA
57. Franklin Morales - at TB (this is my *guess* at Wednesday spot-starter for BOS needed because of Friday rain)
58. Scott Diamond - DET
59. Felix Doubront - at BAL (more rain might cost him a start)
60. Kevin Correia - PHI
61. Lucas Harrell - CWS
62. Wade Davis - DET
63. Roberto Hernandez - BOS, KC
64. Freddy Garcia - LAA, BOS
65. Dallas Keuchel - at SEA, CWS
66. P.J. Walters - PHI, DET
67. Mark Buehrle - at TEX
68. Esmil Rogers - at CWS (this is less about talent and more about him being a 3-4 IP starter)
69. Chien-Ming Wang - at CWS
70. Aaron Harang - HOU
71. Jeremy Bonderman - HOU
72. Erik Bedard - CWS
73. Luis Mendoza - at TB
74. Mike Pelfrey - PHI
75. Samuel Deduno - DET
76. Joe Blanton - (rainout likely costs him a Week 11 start to keep Weaver's two-start intact)

MLB TOP 100

1. Clayton Kershaw - ARI, at PIT
2. Hisashi Iwakuma - HOU, at OAK
3. Yu Darvish - TOR
4. Justin Verlander - at KC
5. Adam Wainwright - at NYM
6. Felix Hernandez - at OAK
7. Matt Harvey - CHC
8. Mat Latos - at CHC
9. Cliff Lee - at MIN
10. Max Scherzer - at KC
11. Anibal Sanchez - at MIN
12. Jon Lester - at TB, at BAL
13. CC Sabathia - at OAK, at LAA
14. Alex Cobb - BOS, KC
15. Doug Fister - at KC, at MIN
16. Jered Weaver - at BAL, NYY
17. Derek Holland - CLE, TOR
18. Lance Lynn - at MIA
19. Chris Sale - TOR
20. Shelby Miller - at NYM
21. Mike Minor - SF
22. Jeff Samardzija - CIN
23. James Shields - DET
24. Clay Buchholz - at BAL
25. Patrick Corbin - at LAD
26. A.J. Burnett - SF
27. Zack Greinke - ARI
28. Matt Cain - at PIT
29. Hiroki Kuroda - at OAK
30. Madison Bumgarner - at ATL
31. Jordan Zimmermann - at CLE
32. Homer Bailey - at CHC, MIL
33. Matt Garza - CIN, at NYM
34. Justin Masterson - WAS
35. Matt Moore - KC
36. Alexi Ogando - CLE, TOR
37. Cole Hamels - at MIN, at COL
38. Gio Gonzalez - at COL
39. Trevor Cahill - at SD
40. Paul Maholm - at SD
41. John Lackey - at TB
42. Jarrod Parker - NYY
43. Hyun-Jin Ryu - ARI
44. Francisco Liriano - SF
45. Travis Wood - CIN
46. Jose Fernandez - STL
47. Julio Teheran - at SD, SF
48. Michael Wacha - at NYM, at MIA
49. Scott Feldman - CIN, at NYM
50. Tony Cingrani - at CHC, MIL
51. Ervin Santana - at TB
52. Bartolo Colon - NYY, SEA
53. Corey Kluber - at TEX, WAS
54. R.A. Dickey - at CWS, at TEX
55. Dylan Axelrod - TOR, at HOU
56. Ricky Nolasco - MIL, STL
57. Jonathon Niese - STL, CHC
58. Yovani Gallardo - at MIA, at CIN
59. Wade Miley - at LAD, at SD
60. Tim Lincecum - at PIT, at ATL
61. Jason Marquis - ATL, ARI
62. Kris Medlen - SF
63. Josh Johnson - at TEX
64. C.J. Wilson - NYY
65. Andy Pettitte - at LAA
66. Tommy Milone - SEA
67. Mike Leake - at CHC
68. Tim Hudson - at SD
69. Andrew Cashner - ATL
70. Jose Quintana - TOR
71. Dan Straily - NYY
72. Jeff Locke - LAD
73. A.J. Griffin - SEA
74. Bud Norris - at SEA
75. Shaun Marcum - CHC
76. Kyle Kendrick - at COL
77. Bronson Arroyo - MIL
78. Kyle Lohse - at CIN
79. Eric Stults - ARI
80. Zach McAllister - at TEX
81. Ryan Dempster - at BAL
82. Scott Kazmir - WAS
83. Miguel Gonzalez - LAA, BOS
84. Jorge de la Rosa - WAS
85. Jeremy Hefner - STL
86. Tyler Skaggs - at SD
87. Hector Santiago - at HOU
88. Gerrit Cole - SF, LAD
89. Phil Hughes - at OAK
90. Tyler Cloyd - at MIN
91. David Phelps - at LAA
92. Chris Tillman - BOS
93. Dillon Gee - STL
94. Ian Kennedy - at LAD
95. Jhoulys Chacin - WAS
96. Barry Zito - at PIT
97. Ross Detwiler - at COL
98. Kevin Gausman - BOS
99. Rick Porcello - at MIN
100. Justin Grimm - TOR

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