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Pitching Value Meter: The Wainwright Stuff

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week June 17-23

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Adam Wainwright - CHC, TEX (he's just unreal)
2. Matt Harvey - at ATL, at PHI
3. Shelby Miller - CHC, TEX (after a couple of OK starts in SD and LAD, he's posted a 2.84 ERA and 26:1 K:BB ratio in 19 June IP)
4. Mat Latos - PIT, at ATL
5. Clayton Kershaw - at SD (he and Zimm still rate highly despite just one start)
6. Jordan Zimmermann - COL
7. Matt Cain - SD, MIA (even including 7 ER at STL he has a 3.41 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his last five starts)
8. Patrick Corbin - MIA, CIN
9. Jeff Samardzija - at STL, HOU (he's been a bit shaky in his last three with 25 hits allowed, but his 24 Ks in the same 18.3 IP shows upside)
10. Travis Wood - at STL, HOU (everyone keeps waiting for the shoe to drop, but 13 starts in and he seems to be getting better)
11. Madison Bumgarner - SD
12. Cliff Lee - WAS
13. Mike Minor - NYM (hasn't allowed more than 3 ER since April 28; 2.04 ERA in 53 IP since)
14. Gio Gonzalez - at PHI (huge outing in CLE, though he had 4 BB for the third time in his last four)
15. Lance Lynn - CHC
16. Cole Hamels - NYM
17. Zack Greinke - at SD (was in the midst of another fight and now faces the team of his first brawl this year)
18. Johnny Cueto - at ARI (returns Sunday against MIL so we'll have an idea of how he looks)
19. Homer Bailey - PIT
20. Stephen Strasburg - COL (returning Sunday like Cueto; a conservative ranking for now)
21. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at NYY, at SD
22. Andrew Cashner - at SF, LAD (still not getting Ks we'd expect based on stuff, but 3.0 K:BB ratio is nice)
23. Francisco Liriano - at CIN, at LAA
24. Mike Leake - PIT, at ARI (gave up 9 ER in first two starts; 16 ER in subsequent 11 yielding a 2.07 ERA in 69.7 IP)
25. Paul Maholm - NYM, at MIL
26. Tim Hudson - NYM, at MIL (three straight QS with at least 7 IP in each)
27. Jorge de la Rosa - at TOR, at WAS
28. Dillon Gee - at ATL, at PHI (1 ER in each of his last three with 26 Ks in 21 IP)
29. Jose Fernandez - at ARI (has talent for 11-20 grouping, but lack of support in pen, lineup keeps two-start guys ahead of him)
30. Gerrit Cole - at LAA (tremendous debut, starts again this weekend)
31. Eric Stults - at SF (he's gone seven-plus in five of six with a 1.99 ERA in 45.3 IP)
32. Tyler Chatwood - at WAS (returns Sat to hopefully continue his excellent 2013)
33. Ross Detwiler - at PHI, COL
34. Barry Zito - SD, MIA (his two opponents are 25th and 28th in OPS v. LHP the last month)
35. Jacob Turner - at ARI, at SF (great results with modest skills in first three starts of 2013)
36. Julio Teheran - at MIL (these next 10 got squeezed down by several two-start guys in tier or tier below)
37. Jonathon Niese - at ATL (four straight QS with 1.67 ERA in last 27 IP)
38. Jeff Locke - at CIN
39. Ricky Nolasco - at SF (faces 24th-ranked offense v. RHP as injuries decimate lineup)
40. Kris Medlen - NYM
41. Bronson Arroyo - PIT
42. Kyle Kendrick - WAS
43. Scott Feldman - at STL
44. Trevor Cahill - MIA (opponent keeps him here as mechanics are still a mess despite better results at SD)
45. Kyle Lohse - at HOU (brilliant April, terrible May, great start to June)
46. Tim Lincecum - MIA (opponent is the only reason he is still above the caution line)
47. Yovani Gallardo - ATL
48. Jhoulys Chacin - at WAS
49. Wade Miley - CIN
50. Matt Garza - HOU (best cure after a pummeling like 9 ER beatdown CIN put on him is a visit from HOU)
51. Zack Wheeler - at ATL (MLB Debut, let's be smart and not expect the world)
52. Jason Marquis - LAD (horrific K:BB hasn't stopped him from posting a 3.15 ERA in his last nine)
53. Jeremy Hefner - at PHI (he was a bit fortunate v. STL, but he's still been sharp of late)


CAUTION

54. Ian Kennedy or fill-in - CIN (monitor his appeal, not that you're dying to start him)
55. Tom Koehler - at SF
56. Shaun Marcum - at ATL
57. Alfredo Figaro - at HOU
58. Chad Gaudin - MIA
59. Jonathan Pettibone - NYM
60. Chris Capuano - at NYY
61. Clayton Richard - LAD
62. Tyler Skaggs (maybe?) - MIA (could be Randall Delgado or Charles Brewer or me, who knows?)
63. Edwin Jackson - at STL
64. Juan Nicasio - at TOR
65. Tom Gorzelanny - at HOU
66. Dan Haren - at PHI, COL (oh how the mighty have fallen)
67. Jake Westbrook - CHC (that ERA is such a mirage)
68. Tyler Lyons - TEX
69. John Lannan - WAS, NYM
70. Edinson Volquez - at SF, LAD
71. Nathan Eovaldi - at ARI, at SF (replacing Kevin Slowey, but Slowey *could* get the second start giving the Marlins six starters this week)
72. Jeff Francis - at TOR, at WAS
73. Charlie Morton - at CIN, at LAA
74. Stephen Fife - at SD
75. Wily Peralta - ATL
76. Brandon Cumpton or fill-in - at CIN (Cumpton starting Sunday, we'll see if he gets a second look)
77. Brandon Beachy fill-in - NYM, at MIL (Beachy was supposed to start here, but he's been scratched; no replacement named)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Justin Verlander - BAL, BOS (stuff looks much more crisp, plus 29% K and 6% BB rates over last five suggest he's fine)
2. James Shields - at CLE, CWS (calls Cliff Lee nightly for tips on how to deal with a winless life)
3. Max Scherzer - BAL, BOS
4. Yu Darvish - OAK
5. Chris Sale - at MIN (8 IP, 0 ER, 14 K yields a loss thanks to anemic offense, 2 unearned runs)
6. Felix Hernandez - at LAA
7. Hisashi Iwakuma - OAK (A's hitting better, but have just 3 runs v. Iwakuma in 13 IP this year)
8. Hiroki Kuroda - LAD
9. Anibal Sanchez - BOS (shoulder stiffness keeps his rank down a bit; love him if healthy; watch 6/15 start at MIN)
10. Jered Weaver - PIT
11. Justin Masterson - KC (breakout feels more real with each passing start)
12. Doug Fister - BOS
13. Alex Cobb - at NYY (undeterred by a rough outing v. BOS)
14. Derek Holland - at STL
15. Clay Buchholz - TB, at DET (bumped down based on lingering neck issues; would've been behind Scherzer otherwise)
16. Jarrod Parker - at TEX, at SEA (seven straight QS with 2.40 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 48.7 IP)
17. Jason Vargas - SEA, PIT (a pair of home starts against modest offenses is the perfect setup for him)
18. Jon Lester - at DET (has given up 4-plus ER in four of five resulting in a 6.90 ERA over 30 innings)
19. Matt Moore - at BOS (like Lester, he and Sabathia have been freezing cold lately)
20. CC Sabathia - TB (can't sit in most formats, but they do need to be bumped down the rankings)
21. John Lackey - at DET
22. Ervin Santana - at CLE
23. Rick Porcello - BAL (since 9 ER massacre at LAA: 2.84 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 5.6 K:BB in 57 IP)
24. Bartolo Colon - at SEA
25. Corey Kluber - MIN (since 8 ER shellacking at DET: 3.09 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 6.1 K:BB in 35 IP)
26. Miguel Gonzalez - at TOR (even with 5 ER outing v. DET, he has a 3.03 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in his last six)
27. C.J. Wilson - SEA
28. Andy Pettitte - TB
29. Josh Johnson - COL, BAL (two tough matchups; we haven't seen much so far this year)
30. Bud Norris - CWS, at CHC (has 7 QS in last 8 with 3.06 ERA in 53 IP)
31. Jose Quintana - at MIN, at KC
32. Dan Straily - at TEX, at SEA (excellent in his last five with a 2.20 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 32.7 IP)
33. Jordan Lyles - MIL, at CHC (a third of an inning from five straight QS, but has a 1.65 ERA in last 32.7 IP)
34. Ubaldo Jimenez - KC, MIN (do we have to start trusting him? 3.40 ERA in last 10)
35. Phil Hughes - LAD, TB
36. Chris Archer - at BOS, at NYY
37. Dylan Axelrod - at HOU, at KC
38. Jeremy Guthrie - CWS (0.50 ERA and 0.81 WHIP v. CWS in 35.7 IP as a Royal)
39. Hector Santiago - at KC
40. Scott Kazmir - MIN
41. Chris Tillman - at DET
42. A.J. Griffin - at TEX
43. John Danks - at MIN (getting better with each start)
44. R.A. Dickey - BAL (frighteningly inconsistent)
45. David Phelps - TB
46. Franklin Morales - TB (a doubleheader fill-in)
47. Tommy Milone - at TEX
48. Joe Saunders - at LAA (two strong road outings plus a friendly venue in Anaheim)
49. Jason Hammel - at DET, at TOR (don't love the matchups, but he's been better lately albeit inconsistent as well)

CAUTION

50. Esmil Rogers - COL (increasing workload each time out, but still not ready to full trust him)
51. Ryan Dempster - at DET
52. Aaron Harang - at LAA, OAK (need more than a domination of HOU to trust Harang or Bonderman for a pair)
53. Jeremy Bonderman - at LAA, OAK
54. Jeremy Hellickson - at BOS (bench until further notice)
55. Nick Tepesch - OAK, at STL
56. Jerome Williams - SEA, PIT
57. Felix Doubront - TB
58. Carlos Carrasco - KC
59. Tommy Hanson - SEA
60. Lucas Harrell - MIL
61. Scott Diamond - CWS
62. Erik Bedard - MIL
63. Luis Mendoza - at CLE
64. Justin Grimm - OAK
65. Roberto Hernandez - at NYY
66. Chien-Ming Wang - BAL
67. Samuel Deduno - at CLE
68. Mark Buehrle - COL
69. Wade Davis - CWS
70. Kevin Correia - CWS
71. Freddy Garcia - at TOR
72. Dallas Keuchel - at CHC
73. Mike Pelfrey - CWS, at CLE
74. P.J. Walters - at CLE
75. Josh Lindblom - OAK
76. Kevin Gausman fill-in - at DET
77. Tampa Bay DH fill-in - at NYY (the SPs are filled for the doubleheader, but they need someone on the weekend because of it)

MLB TOP 100

1. Adam Wainwright - CHC, TEX
2. Matt Harvey - at ATL, at PHI
3. Justin Verlander - BAL, BOS
4. James Shields - at CLE, CWS
5. Max Scherzer - BAL, BOS
6. Shelby Miller - CHC, TEX
7. Mat Latos - PIT, at ATL
8. Clayton Kershaw - at SD
9. Jordan Zimmermann - COL
10. Matt Cain - SD, MIA
11. Patrick Corbin - MIA, CIN
12. Jeff Samardzija - at STL, HOU
13. Travis Wood - at STL, HOU
14. Yu Darvish - OAK
15. Chris Sale - at MIN
16. Felix Hernandez - at LAA
17. Hisashi Iwakuma - OAK
18. Hiroki Kuroda - LAD
19. Anibal Sanchez - BOS
20. Madison Bumgarner - SD
21. Cliff Lee - WAS
22. Mike Minor - NYM
23. Jered Weaver - PIT
24. Gio Gonzalez - at PHI
25. Lance Lynn - CHC
26. Cole Hamels - NYM
27. Zack Greinke - at SD
28. Johnny Cueto - at ARI
29. Justin Masterson - KC
30. Doug Fister - BOS
31. Alex Cobb - at NYY
32. Homer Bailey - PIT
33. Stephen Strasburg - COL
34. Derek Holland - at STL
35. Clay Buchholz - TB, at DET
36. Jarrod Parker - at TEX, at SEA
37. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at NYY, at SD
38. Andrew Cashner - at SF, LAD
39. Jason Vargas - SEA, PIT
40. Francisco Liriano - at CIN, at LAA
41. Mike Leake - PIT, at ARI
42. Paul Maholm - NYM, at MIL
43. Tim Hudson - NYM, at MIL
44. Jorge de la Rosa - at TOR, at WAS
45. Dillon Gee - at ATL, at PHI
46. Jon Lester - at DET
47. Matt Moore - at BOS
48. CC Sabathia - TB
49. John Lackey - at DET
50. Ervin Santana - at CLE
51. Jose Fernandez - at ARI
52. Gerrit Cole - at LAA
53. Rick Porcello - BAL
54. Bartolo Colon - at SEA
55. Corey Kluber - MIN
56. Miguel Gonzalez - at TOR
57. C.J. Wilson - SEA
58. Andy Pettitte - TB
59. Eric Stults - at SF
60. Tyler Chatwood - at WAS
61. Josh Johnson - COL, BAL
62. Ross Detwiler - at PHI, COL
63. Barry Zito - SD, MIA
64. Jacob Turner - at ARI, at SF
65. Bud Norris - CWS, at CHC
66. Jose Quintana - at MIN, at KC
67. Dan Straily - at TEX, at SEA
68. Jordan Lyles - MIL, at CHC
69. Ubaldo Jimenez - KC, MIN
70. Julio Teheran - at MIL
71. Jonathon Niese - at ATL
72. Jeff Locke - at CIN
73. Ricky Nolasco - at SF
74. Kris Medlen - NYM
75. Bronson Arroyo - PIT
76. Kyle Kendrick - WAS
77. Scott Feldman - at STL
78. Trevor Cahill - MIA
79. Kyle Lohse - at HOU
80. Phil Hughes - LAD, TB
81. Chris Archer - at BOS, at NYY
82. Dylan Axelrod - at HOU, at KC
83. Jeremy Guthrie - CWS
84. Hector Santiago - at KC
85. Scott Kazmir - MIN
86. Chris Tillman - at DET
87. A.J. Griffin - at TEX
88. John Danks - at MIN
89. R.A. Dickey - BAL
90. Tim Lincecum - MIA
91. Yovani Gallardo - ATL
92. Wade Miley - CIN
93. David Phelps - TB
94. Franklin Morales - TB
95. Jhoulys Chacin - at WAS
96. Matt Garza - HOU
97. Zack Wheeler - at ATL
98. Tommy Milone - at TEX
99. Joe Saunders - at LAA
100. Jason Hammel - at DET, at TOR

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