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Pitching Value Meter: Matchup Proof

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week of Aug. 26-Sept. 1

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Zack Greinke - CHC, SD (10 ER in last 9 starts, including 4 in one start)
2. Cliff Lee - at NYM, at CHC
3. Clayton Kershaw - CHC (really close to putting him No. 1 even with a single start, he's been that good)
4. Matt Harvey - PHI (has about four starts left, so re-draft leagues might as well ride it out)
5. Jose Fernandez - at ATL (1.54 ERA, 35% K rate, 4-0 since ASB make him matchup-proof)
6. Mike Minor - MIA
7. Julio Teheran - MIA
8. Stephen Strasburg - MIA (Nos. 6-8 have 3.06 ERA or better facing baseball's worst offense)
9. Patrick Corbin - SF
10. Adam Wainwright - CIN (almost feel like I'm disrespecting him, but it's NL depth, better matchups for others)
11. Alex Wood - CLE, MIA (great since ASB, truly brilliant in Aug. with MLB's 5th-lowest ERA at 1.11)
12. Kyle Lohse - at PIT, LAA (April: 2.53 ERA in 32 IP, May: 6.51 ERA in 27.7 IP; June-Aug.: 2.53 ERA in 99.7 IP)
13. Jon Niese - PHI, at WAS (2.84 ERA, 23 Ks in 19 IP over three starts since returning from DL)
14. Gio Gonzalez - MIA (got a pass for DET, but KC's 6 ER and 12 base runners in 3.3 IP is tough to swallow)
15. Francisco Liriano - STL (has eight outings of 7-plus IP, 0-1 ER including two against STL)
16. Mat Latos - at STL (similarly, Latos has three outings 6-plus IP, 0-2 ER against STL)
17. Cole Hamels - at NYM
18. Zack Wheeler - PHI, at WAS (41 Ks in 41.7 IP over last seven, dipping below 5 Ks just once)
19. Shelby Miller - at PIT
20. Madison Bumgarner - at COL (avenged his mid-May dud in Coors in late-June, but still has a 4.18 ERA, 1.44 WHIP career mark there)
21. Jorge De La Rosa - CIN
22. Dan Haren - NYM (a healthy Haren is an awesome Haren: 2.16 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 5.0 K/BB in last 50 IP)
23. A.J. Burnett - STL
24. Homer Bailey - at STL
25. Lance Lynn - at PIT (favorable on paper, but he's been hit/miss vs. PIT, getting smashed twice in four outings)
26. Matt Cain - at COL (avenged his mid-May dud in Coors as well, but this is more about his forearm)
27. Jordan Zimmermann - NYM (control, command have been sketchy since ASB with 15 BB, 7 HR in 6 GS; had 18, 10 in 19 GS before break)
28. Gerrit Cole - MIL, STL
29. Tyson Ross - at ARI, at LAD
30. Hyun-Jin Ryu - SD
31. Wade Miley - SD (these two lefties have been sharp lately, but southpaws are actually SD's strength)
32. Kris Medlen - CLE
33. Dillon Gee - at WAS (allowed 8 ER in last seven, including 4 in one start, yielding a 1.47 ERA in 49 IP)
34. Kyle Kendrick - at NYM, at CHC
35. Ricky Nolasco - CHC
36. Jhoulys Chacin - SF (rather bland at home, but Giants are rather bland everywhere)
37. Tony Cingrani - at COL (big fan overall, but one-pitch flyballer is dangerous in Coors)
38. Jeff Samardzija - PHI
39. Charlie Morton - MIL (3.20 ERA in five Aug. starts despite 6-IP/5-ER shelling vs. STL to kick off month)
40. Travis Wood - at LAD
41. Yovani Gallardo - at PIT (posted back-to-back strong outings vs. CIN since returning from DL)
42. Chris Rusin - PHI
43. Marco Estrada - LAA (12:1 K:BB ratio in 17 IP over three starts since returning from the DL)
44. Trevor Cahill - SD (logged season-high 10 Ks last time he faced SD)
45. Bronson Arroyo - at COL (defied odds all year, so who would be surprised with a shutout here?)
46. Jake Arrieta - at LAD, PHI
47. Randall Delgado - SF (solid, though unspectacular; should handle a poor lineup)
48. Ryan Vogelsong - at ARI
49. Wily Peralta - LAA (the vagaries of young pitching: 5, 3, 1, 2, 7 ER in last five starts)
50. Tyler Cloyd - at CHC
51. Chris Capuano - SD
52. Jacob Turner - at ATL (tied with Locke for most BB in MLB since ASB with 25)
53. Tim Lincecum - at ARI (when do you ever feel good about starting Lincecum?)

CAUTION

54. Mike Leake - at STL, at COL (doesn't miss enough bats to be terribly confident here; I'd rather just pass)
55. Paul Maholm - CLE
56. Edwin Jackson - at LAD
57. Ian Kennedy - at ARI
58. Nathan Eovaldi - at WAS, at ATL
59. Tyler Lyons - CIN, at PIT
60. Brandon McCarthy - SD, SF
61. Jeff Locke - MIL (7.50 ERA, 12 K, 14 BB in 18 IP during Aug.)
62. Andrew Cashner - at LAD
63. Eric Stults - at LAD (Cash, Stults are just different pitchers on the road)
64. Tom Gorzelanny - at PIT
65. Ross Ohlendorf - MIA, NYM
66. Joe Kelly - CIN
67. Henderson Alvarez - at WAS
68. Ethan Martin - at NYM
69. Tom Koehler - at WAS
70. Jeff Manship - CIN
71. Juan Nicasio - SF, CIN
72. Edinson Volquez - at ARI
73. Chad Bettis - SF
74. Barry Zito - at ARI
75. Daisuke Matsuzaka - PHI

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Anibal Sanchez - OAK, CLE (allowed more than 2 ER twice in last 13 GS: 2.24 ERA in 84.3 IP)
2. Hisashi Iwakuma - TEX, at HOU
3. James Shields - at MIN, at TOR (annoyingly inconsistent lately evidenced by 7 ER vs. MIN followed by 2 and 0 ER outings vs. BOS and DET)
4. Yu Darvish - MIN
5. Max Scherzer - OAK
6. David Price - LAA (Darvish, Scherzer are behind only Sanchez in AL ERA since ASB while Price is sixth)
7. Chris Sale - HOU
8. Hiroki Kuroda - at TOR (played a role in TOR's demise: 1.69 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 5.0 K/BB ratio in 21.3 IP)
9. Felix Doubront - BAL, CWS
10. C.J. Wilson - at TB, MIL (both lefties are prone to imploding, but they've been mostly great in 2013)
11. Doug Fister - OAK (just behind Price in that AL ERA since the break)
12. Alex Cobb - at OAK (hasn't missed a beat since returning with 2 ER in 11 IP)
13. Chris Archer - LAA
14. Derek Holland - at SEA
15. Matt Garza - MIN (unimpressive 5.60 Aug ERA balanced by 25 Ks, 5.0 K:BB ratio in 27.3 IP)
16. Jon Lester - BAL
17. Felix Hernandez - TEX (facing only team to really get to him all year, blasting him in 3 of 4 starts, including a week ago)
18. Jered Weaver - at MIL (7 HR in first 14 starts; 6 HR in four Aug. starts)
19. Ervin Santana - at TOR (speaking of HR, Santana has curbed his, but a trip to TOR is a little scary)
20. John Lackey - BAL
21. Ivan Nova - BAL
22. Justin Verlander - OAK, CLE (just feels like there will be a 5-ER outing in at least one of these)
23. Danny Salazar - at ATL, at DET (not an easy slate, but Ks should be there even if the ERA isn't)
24. Wei-Yin Chen - at BOS, at NYY
25. Brett Oberholtzer - at CWS, SEA (not much for Ks, and Ws are always tough with HOU, but the ratios are tiny)
26. Jake Peavy - CWS (goes for a third straight gem with an outing against his former teammates)
27. Jose Quintana - HOU
28. Justin Masterson - at ATL
29. Garrett Richards - at TB (outdueled Felix Friday night in a 2-0 win to shake off 6 IP/5 ER vs. HOU)
30. Sonny Gray - TB
31. Rick Porcello - CLE (done his best work vs. CLE: 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 19 Ks, 3.2 K:BB in 19 IP)
32. Martin Perez - at SEA
33. Jarred Cosart - at CWS (K:BB numbers are still unsexy, but he continues to succeed with a 1.60 ERA through seven starts)
34. Miguel Gonzalez - at NYY (2.37 ERA in 19 IP vs. NYY this year has earned him a sweet 0-1 record)
35. Jarrod Parker - at DET
36. Hector Santiago - at BOS
37. Scott Kazmir - at DET
38. Chris Tillman - at BOS (Parker to Tillman are intriguing arms, but have hellacious matchups against two of MLB's best)
39. Erasmo Ramirez - at HOU
40. CC Sabathia - at TOR (this now constitutes the benefit of the doubt for CC)
41. R.A. Dickey - NYY, KC
42. Samuel Deduno - KC
43. Ubaldo Jimenez - at ATL (chiseled his ERA below 4.00 for the first time since April 3 with 2.27 ERA since ASB)
44. Ryan Dempster - CWS
45. Jason Vargas - at MIL
46. Mark Buehrle - KC (3.19 ERA in 110 IP over the last three months, taking ERA from 6.33 to 4.23 in the process)

CAUTION:

47. Travis Blackley - at SEA, MIN (will he get enough pitches to go deep into either outing?)
48. Scott Feldman - at NYY
49. Andrew Albers - KC
50. Andy Pettitte - at TOR, BAL
51. Andre Rienzo - HOU, at BOS
52. Jeremy Hellickson - at KC, at OAK (don't get hung up on the name value)
53. A.J. Griffin - at DET, TB (the HR machine faces the teams with the 6th, 7th HR totals against righties)
54. Tommy Milone - at DET, TB
55. Joe Saunders - TEX, at HOU
56. Roberto Hernandez - LAA, OAK
57. Phil Hughes - at TOR, BAL (he'd trade with Griffin in a second as he faces the top two HR-hitting teams vs. RHP)
58. Zach McAllister - at DET
59. Liam Hendriks - at TEX
60. John Danks - at BOS
61. Bud Norris - at BOS
62. Erik Bedard - at CWS
63. Bruce Chen - at MIN
64. Dan Straily - at DET
65. Aaron Harang - at HOU
66. Esmil Rogers - NYY, KC
67. Kevin Correia - KC, at TEX
68. Jeremy Guthrie - TB, at TOR
69. Todd Redmond - NYY
70. J.A. Happ - NYY
71. Brad Peacock - SEA
72. Jerome Williams - at TB
73. Wade Davis - at MIN
74. Dallas Keuchel - SEA
75. Jordan Lyles - SEA
76. Mike Pelfrey - at TEX

MLB TOP 100

1. Anibal Sanchez - OAK, CLE
2. Zack Greinke - CHC, SD
3. Hisashi Iwakuma - TEX, at HOU
4. Cliff Lee - at NYM, at CHC
5. James Shields - at MIN, at TOR
6. Clayton Kershaw - CHC
7. Yu Darvish - MIN
8. Matt Harvey - PHI
9. Jose Fernandez - at ATL
10. Mike Minor - MIA
11. Julio Teheran - MIA
12. Stephen Strasburg - MIA
13. Max Scherzer - OAK
14. David Price - LAA
15. Chris Sale - HOU
16. Patrick Corbin - SF
17. Adam Wainwright - CIN
18. Alex Wood - CLE, MIA
19. Hiroki Kuroda - at TOR
20. Kyle Lohse - at PIT, LAA
21. Jon Niese - PHI, at WAS
22. Felix Doubront - BAL, CWS
23. C.J. Wilson - at TB, MIL
24. Gio Gonzalez - MIA
25. Francisco Liriano - STL
26. Doug Fister - OAK
27. Alex Cobb - at OAK
28. Chris Archer - LAA
29. Matt Garza - MIN
30. Derek Holland - at SEA
31. Jon Lester - BAL
32. Felix Hernandez - TEX
33. Mat Latos - at STL
34. Cole Hamels - at NYM
35. Zack Wheeler - PHI, at WAS
36. Shelby Miller - at PIT
37. Madison Bumgarner - at COL
38. Jorge De La Rosa - CIN
39. Jered Weaver - at MIL
40. Ervin Santana - at TOR
41. John Lackey - BAL
42. Ivan Nova - BAL
43. Justin Verlander - OAK, CLE
44. Danny Salazar - at ATL, at DET
45. Wei-Yin Chen - at BOS, at NYY
46. Brett Oberholtzer - at CWS, SEA
47. Jake Peavy - CWS
48. Jose Quintana - HOU
49. Dan Haren - NYM
50. A.J. Burnett - STL
51. Homer Bailey - at STL
52. Justin Masterson - at ATL
53. Garrett Richards - at TB
54. Sonny Gray - TB
55. Lance Lynn - at PIT
56. Matt Cain - at COL
57. Jordan Zimmermann - NYM
58. Gerrit Cole - MIL, STL
59. Tyson Ross - at ARI, at LAD
60. Hyun-Jin Ryu - SD
61. Wade Miley - SD
62. Kris Medlen - CLE
63. Dillon Gee - at WAS
64. Rick Porcello - CLE
65. Martin Perez - at SEA
66. Jarred Cosart - at CWS
67. Kyle Kendrick - at NYM, at CHC
68. Miguel Gonzalez - at NYY
69. Ricky Nolasco - CHC
70. Jhoulys Chacin - SF
71. Tony Cingrani - at COL
72. Jarrod Parker - at DET
73. Hector Santiago - at BOS
74. Scott Kazmir - at DET
75. Chris Tillman - at BOS
76. Erasmo Ramirez - at HOU
77. CC Sabathia - at TOR
78. Jeff Samardzija - PHI
79. Charlie Morton - MIL
80. Travis Wood - at LAD
81. Yovani Gallardo - at PIT
82. R.A. Dickey - NYY, KC
83. Samuel Deduno - KC
84. Ubaldo Jimenez - at ATL
85. Ryan Dempster - CWS
86. Chris Rusin - PHI
87. Marco Estrada - LAA
88. Trevor Cahill - SD
89. Bronson Arroyo - at COL
90. Jason Vargas - at MIL
91. Jake Arrieta - at LAD, PHI
92. Randall Delgado - SF
93. Ryan Vogelsong - at ARI
94. Wily Peralta - LAA
95. Tyler Cloyd - at CHC
96. Mark Buehrle - KC
97. Chris Capuano - SD
98. Jacob Turner - at ATL
99. Tim Lincecum - at ARI
100. Mike Leake - at STL, at COL