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Pitching Value Meter: Max Value

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

With expanded rosters in effect, probables are subject to change more than usual. Stay tuned to our fantasy news wire and projected starters for updates.

For the week of Sept. 16-22

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Cliff Lee - MIA, NYM (2.78 ERA since Aug. 1, including 1.86 in last four during which he's gone 8 IP thrice)
2. Zack Greinke - at ARI, at SD (nine straight starts of 2 ER or fewer: 1.58 ERA in 62.7 IP)
3. Mike Minor - at WAS, at CHC
4. Patrick Corbin - LAD, at COL (tough slate, but dominates good teams and has a 9 IP/1 ER in Coors this year)
5. Clayton Kershaw - at ARI (even with one start, still better than some strong two-start guys)
6. Cole Hamels - NYM
7. Madison Bumgarner - at NYM
8. A.J. Burnett - SD, CIN (sputtering to the finish, but he's had STL, at STL, at TEX in his last three)
9. Gio Gonzalez - MIA
10. Julio Teheran - at CHC
11. Mat Latos - at HOU (trip to HOU is perfect opportunity to erase the damage of 6.7 IP/5 ER in MIL)
12. Homer Bailey - at PIT
13. Zack Wheeler - SF, at PHI (reasonable Harvey imitation since he left: 2.49 ERA in 25.3 IP)
14. Matt Cain - at NYM (hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of 9 post-ASB starts; did so in 6-of-19 pre-break)
15. Shelby Miller - at MIL
16. Francisco Liriano - CIN (always rebounds from meltdowns with a gem, but how about just avoiding the meltdown this time?)
17. Adam Wainwright - at COL (probably too cautious about this trip to Coors, but time to bounce back from duds is evaporating quickly)
18. Jordan Zimmermann - MIA
19. Kris Medlen - at CHC
20. Jon Niese - SF (has a 2.85 in his last 13 starts spanning 82 IP)
21. Dillon Gee - at PHI
22. Ricky Nolasco - at ARI
23. Andrew Cashner - at PIT, LAD (preferred as home-only, but two road gems in a row, PIT park instill confidence)
24. Tanner Roark - ATL, MIA (key cog in their late-season run with back-to-back 6 IP gems since joining rotation)
25. Nathan Eovaldi - at PHI, at WAS
26. Trevor Cahill - LAD, at COL
27. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at ARI, at SD (shaky in return from back soreness with 10 H allowed to ARI, allowed 8 H to SD in start before that)
28. Gerrit Cole - SD
29. Kyle Lohse - CHC
30. Travis Wood - ATL
31. Wade Miley - LAD
32. Stephen Strasburg - ATL (late scratch Friday with forearm tightness, this is a conservative ranking assuming he even goes)
33. Mike Leake - at HOU, at PIT
34. Jorge de la Rosa - STL, ARI (fares much better at home, but could miss next outing)
35. Wily Peralta - CHC, STL (NL lead in losses is more about team: 3.25 ERA in last 13 has yielded 4-6 record)
36. Yusmeiro Petit - at NYM, at NYY
37. Tyson Ross - at PIT, LAD (no idea what that massacre in Philly was, but I'm jumping back in assuming he's healthy)
38. Eric Stults - at PIT, LAD
39. Tyler Chatwood - STL (Cards are tough on paper, but only 25th-best OPS v. righties in Sept.)
40. Yovani Gallardo - STL (hate the matchup hence the slotting, but he has a 1.35 ERA in five starts since return from DL)
41. Marco Estrada - CHC
42. Ian Kennedy - at PIT
43. Jhoulys Chacin - ARI
44. Joe Kelly - at COL, at MIL (doesn't miss enough bats to feel all that comfortable in Coors)
45. Alex Wood - at WAS (dealt a few doses of reality lately)
46. Robbie Erlin - at PIT (solid, but matchup isn't great as PIT handles lefties well)
47. Tim Lincecum - at NYY
48. Kyle Kendrick - MIA
49. Ryan Vogelsong - at NYY
50. Bronson Arroyo - at PIT
51. Roy Halladay - MIA (this is just sad; really hope he has at least one more awesome year in his arm)

CAUTION

52. Lance Lynn - at COL, at MIL
53. Jacob Turner - at WAS (frighteningly bad component stats - 1.4 K/BB - suggest 3.43 ERA is a mirage)
54. Jeff Samardzija - at MIL (hasn't completed 6 IP in any of last six)
55. Edwin Jackson - at MIL, ATL
56. Dan Haren - ATL, MIA
57. Jeff Locke - SD, CIN (this whole two-start crew is sketchy, but if you're desperate, you don't have much choice)
58. Michael Wacha - at COL
59. Randall Delgado - at COL
60. Carlos Torres - at PHI
61. Tyler Thornburg - CHC
62. Chris Rusin - at MIL
63. Charlie Morton - SD (dealing with plantar fasciitis, could be skipped at any moment)
64. Tyler Cloyd - NYM
65. Jake Arrieta - at MIL
66. Brandon McCarthy - LAD
67. Brian Flynn - at PHI, at WAS
68. Juan Nicasio - STL, ARI
69. Brad Hand - at PHI
70. Henderson Alvarez - at WAS
71. Greg Reynolds - at HOU
72. Edinson Volquez - at SD
73. Freddy Garcia - at WAS
74. Roy Oswalt - STL
75. Daisuke Matsuzaka - SF
76. Tom Koehler - at PHI, at WAS

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Anibal Sanchez - SEA, CWS (AL ERA leader has a 1.95 in 11 starts since the break)
2. Yu Darvish - at TB
3. Max Scherzer - CWS (silver lining of 19:6 K:BB in three failed attempts at win No. 20)
4. Alex Cobb - TEX, BAL
5. James Shields - CLE, TEX (needs another pair of 8-IP/2-ER outings like his last one to work off 3.7-IP/10-ER obliteration)
6. Sonny Gray - LAA, MIN (most impressive part of his MLB debut is career-high K rate at 26.5%)
7. C.J. Wilson - at OAK, SEA
8. Scott Kazmir - at KC, HOU
9. Corey Kluber - at KC, HOU (Kaz, Kluber have made loss of Masterson tolerable for the Indians)
10. Chris Sale - at DET (never love having your ace face DET, but he's 3-1 with 2.27 against them this year)
11. Jarrod Parker - MIN (hasn't gone fewer than 6 IP in eight starts since Aug. 1 with 2.40 ERA in that span)
12. David Price - BAL
13. Felix Hernandez - at DET (a "maybe" for Wednesday, stay tuned and sit him for a start if you need quantity over quality)
14. Jon Lester - TOR (quietly rolled out 1.98 ERA in his last seven, gets a TOR team that rarely hits lefties)
15. Chris Archer - TEX
16. Chris Tillman - at TB (very good since the break with improvements across the board)
17. Jered Weaver - SEA
18. Ervin Santana - TEX
19. Ubaldo Jimenez - HOU (I know it looks weird, but let's pay respect to 1.94 ERA in nine starts since the break)
20. Hisashi Iwakuma - at DET
21. Rick Porcello - SEA, CWS (2.02 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4-0 vs. White Sox this year, including a CG Sept. 10)
22. Andy Pettitte - at TOR, SF (actually getting better as the season wears on)
23. Justin Verlander - SEA
24. Ivan Nova - SF
25. Matt Moore - TEX (not as good as 0.77 ERA in first two back from DL, but definitely usable)
26. Doug Fister - SEA (because 7 IP/0 ER at BOS followed by 6.3 IP/5 ER at KC makes tons of sense)
27. Clay Buchholz - TOR
28. Jose Quintana - MIN (3.12 ERA in his last 14 starts, including 82 Ks in 86.7 IP)
29. Derek Holland - at TB
30. Erasmo Ramirez - at LAA (7.71 ERA in first three starts in 16.3 IP; 3.43 ERA in last seven spanning 44.7 IP)
31. Jake Peavy - BAL
32. Garrett Richards - at OAK (looking to close with bang, evidenced by 2.41 ERA in three Sept starts so far)
33. John Lackey - BAL
34. Matt Garza - at TB, at KC (more Ryan Dempster 2012 imitation ... more anger from fantasy owners)
35. A.J. Griffin - LAA, MIN
36. R.A. Dickey - NYY, at BOS
37. Felix Doubront - TOR (expected to rejoin rotation in a modified six-man for BOS, stay tuned)
38. Hiroki Kuroda - at TOR (I'm at a loss, perhaps it's just fatigue)
39. CC Sabathia - SF (good matchup, but how confident do you really feel about him these days?)
40. Bartolo Colon - MIN
41. Zach McAllister - HOU
42. Martin Perez - at KC (better for the Rangers than your fantasy team with a lot of mediocre outings)
43. Jason Vargas - at OAK
44. Dan Straily - LAA
45. Mark Buehrle - at BOS (damaged four months of great work in one fell swoop: 2.99 ERA in last 22 up to 3.40 when you add the 23rd)
46. Andrew Albers - at OAK (not worth your time if you need Ks, but otherwise he's getting it done ... somehow)

CAUTION

47. Danny Duffy - CLE (skipped vs. DET on Sept. 13, but lefty-bashing CLE isn't much better)
48. Danny Salazar - at KC (don't bank on him qualifying for a win even if he's rolling; they're managing his pitch counts VERY tightly)
49. Brad Peacock - CIN (weakness is the Cincy lineup strength: left-handers)
50. Brett Oberholtzer - at CLE (his handedness is the Cleveland lineup strength: left-handedness)
51. Scott Feldman - at BOS, at TB
52. Wei-Yin Chen - at BOS
53. Jason Hammel - at BOS
54. Jeremy Hellickson - TEX
55. Hector Santiago - at DET
56. Andre Rienzo - at DET
57. David Huff - at TOR
58. Miguel Gonzalez - at TB
59. Erik Bedard - CIN, at CLE
60. Nick Tepesch - at TB, at KC
61. Joe Saunders - at DET, at LAA
62. Liam Hendriks - at CWS, at OAK
63. Jeremy Guthrie - TEX
64. Ryan Dempster - BAL
65. Jerome Williams - SEA
66. Todd Redmond - NYY
67. Paul Clemens - at CLE
68. Esmil Rogers - at BOS
69. James Paxton - at DET
70. Brandon Maurer - at DET
71. Bruce Chen - CLE
72. J.A. Happ - NYY
73. Jordan Lyles - CIN
74. John Danks - MIN
75. Erik Johnson - MIN
76. Kevin Correia - at OAK
77. Dallas Keuchel - at CLE
78. Mike Pelfrey - at CWS
79. Pedro Hernandez - at OAK

MLB TOP 100

1. Cliff Lee - MIA, NYM
2. Anibal Sanchez - SEA, CWS
3. Zack Greinke - at ARI, at SD
4. Mike Minor - at WAS, at CHC
5. Patrick Corbin - LAD, at COL
6. Clayton Kershaw - at ARI
7. Cole Hamels - NYM
8. Madison Bumgarner - at NYM
9. A.J. Burnett - SD, CIN
10. Gio Gonzalez - MIA
11. Julio Teheran - at CHC
12. Yu Darvish - at TB
13. Max Scherzer - CWS
14. Alex Cobb - TEX, BAL
15. James Shields - CLE, TEX
16. Sonny Gray - LAA, MIN
17. C.J. Wilson - at OAK, SEA
18. Scott Kazmir - at KC, HOU
19. Corey Kluber - at KC, HOU
20. Mat Latos - at HOU
21. Homer Bailey - at PIT
22. Zack Wheeler - SF, at PHI
23. Matt Cain - at NYM
24. Chris Sale - at DET
25. Jarrod Parker - MIN
26. David Price - BAL
27. Shelby Miller - at MIL
28. Francisco Liriano - CIN
29. Felix Hernandez - at DET
30. Jon Lester - TOR
31. Chris Archer - TEX
32. Chris Tillman - at TB
33. Adam Wainwright - at COL
34. Jordan Zimmermann - MIA
35. Kris Medlen - at CHC
36. Jon Niese - SF
37. Dillon Gee - at PHI
38. Jered Weaver - SEA
39. Ervin Santana - TEX
40. Ubaldo Jimenez - HOU
41. Hisashi Iwakuma - at DET
42. Ricky Nolasco - at ARI
43. Rick Porcello - SEA, CWS
44. Andrew Cashner - at PIT, LAD
45. Andy Pettitte - at TOR, SF
46. Tanner Roark - ATL, MIA
47. Nathan Eovaldi - at PHI, at WAS
48. Justin Verlander - SEA
49. Ivan Nova - SF
50. Matt Moore - TEX
51. Doug Fister - SEA
52. Clay Buchholz - TOR
53. Jose Quintana - MIN
54. Trevor Cahill - LAD, at COL
55. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at ARI, at SD
56. Gerrit Cole - SD
57. Kyle Lohse - CHC
58. Wade Miley - LAD
59. Stephen Strasburg - ATL
60. Derek Holland - at TB
61. Erasmo Ramirez - at LAA
62. Jake Peavy - BAL
63. Garrett Richards - at OAK
64. John Lackey - BAL
65. Mike Leake - at HOU, at PIT
66. Jorge de la Rosa - STL, ARI
67. Matt Garza - at TB, at KC
68. Wily Peralta - CHC, STL
69. Yusmeiro Petit - at NYM, at NYY
70. A.J. Griffin - LAA, MIN
71. R.A. Dickey - NYY, at BOS
72. Tyson Ross - at PIT, LAD
73. Eric Stults - at PIT, LAD
74. Tyler Chatwood - STL
75. Travis Wood - ATL
76. Yovani Gallardo - STL
77. Felix Doubront - TOR
78. Hiroki Kuroda - at TOR
79. Marco Estrada - CHC
80. CC Sabathia - SF
81. Bartolo Colon - MIN
82. Zach McAllister - HOU
83. Martin Perez - at KC
84. Jason Vargas - at OAK
85. Dan Straily - LAA
86. Jhoulys Chacin - ARI
87. Ian Kennedy - at PIT
88. Joe Kelly - at COL, at MIL
89. Alex Wood - at WAS
90. Robbie Erlin - at PIT
91. Tim Lincecum - at NYY
92. Mark Buehrle - at BOS
93. Andrew Albers - at OAK
94. Kyle Kendrick - MIA
95. Ryan Vogelsong - at NYY
96. Bronson Arroyo - at PIT
97. Roy Halladay - MIA
98. Lance Lynn - at COL, at MIL
99. Jacob Turner - at WAS
100. Jeff Samardzija - at MIL