The Prospect Post: Dante Exum

ANALYZING Dante Exum'S GAME

This article aims to provide an ongoing evaluation of the NBA's rookie class from a fantasy standpoint while also offering deep dives on college players with bright futures. Projecting young talent is very subjective, so an open dialogue is encouraged, both in the comments section and on Twitter: @RealJRAnderson

Not much has changed in terms of Dante Exum's fantasy value for the 2014-15 season. He has yet to eclipse 20 minutes through the first four games, which should not come as a surprise. Exum will eventually be Utah's franchise point guard, once Trey Burke is demoted to a bench role or traded, but that transition is unlikely to take place this season, meaning the Jazz will continue to work him in off the bench. His first four games have not been absent of head-turning plays that serve as a glimpse into the 19-year-old's extremely bright future.

In the very first game of his career, Exum demonstrated that, yes, he can set his teammates up.

The first assist of Exum's career was one of the best assists of the first week of the NBA season. It's a set play, and its success is aided by the fact that that the Rockets' pick-and-roll defense seemed lackadaisical, but the smooth one-handed flick was delivered at the perfect moment to allow Rudy Gobert to finish with ease. Exum played just 10 minutes in that game, and the alley-oop served as Exum's only assist, but it was a memorable way for his career to start.

Easily his worst game of the early going came against the Mavericks in the Jazz's second game of the season. He played 19 minutes and only made one of his four field-goal attempts, while failing to contribute elsewhere. However, he followed that up with the best game of his young career Nov. 1 against the Suns.

Observations:

• At the 0:20 mark, he blocks an Isaiah Thomas three-pointer, while guarding him straight up. He then runs the fast break and makes a deft feed to Trevor Booker for a transition dunk. This will become a theme of Exum's perimeter defense, and he makes another such block in the following game against the Clippers. This is a golden era for point guards in the NBA, but many of them are several inches shorter than Exum, who is 6-foot-6, which allows him to surprise them with his jump-shot defense. In addition to his size, his basketball instincts and elite athleticism allow him get off the ground after the shooter has committed to the shot but before the ball leaves the shooter's hand.
• At the 0:04, 1:05 and 2:24 marks, we are treated to all three of Exum's makes from downtown in this game. It is a very clean, noiseless motion, and looks extremely repeatable. His shooting mechanics really lend themselves to spot-up shooting, often from the corner, as it is one fluid motion that requires him to gather himself before the shot. He will have trouble getting that shot off while isolated against a similar sized defender, without compromising his mechanics, but to already be a very steady catch-and-shoot option from long range as a 19-year-old puts him ahead of the curve. Through four games Exum is 4-for-11 (36.4 percent) on three-pointers -- a rate that should continue.
• At the 2:52 mark, Exum's length and anticipation allow him to thwart a backdoor pass and lead a fast break that resulted in free throws, despite the fact that there were two defenders back ahead of the play. This is the type of defense he should be able to provide consistently. He won't hound players into turnovers in the manner of Marcus Smart or Avery Bradley, but windows that passers are used to exploiting will be narrower when Exum is the defender in question. He doesn't quite possess the fast break speed of John Wall or Russell Westbrook, but he's in that very next tier, and has already demonstrated a superb ability to finish around the hoop.
• At the 3:40 mark he grabs a rebound and splits the two trailing defenders with a 20-foot one-handed bounce pass that hits Rodney Hood in stride for a lay-in at the other end. Most capable point guards would find a way to get Hood the ball on this play, but Exum adds a little flash without compromising execution.

Observations:

• At the 1:16 mark, Exum executes what is probably the most impressive play of his young career. He takes a half-hearted pick from Rudy Gobert on the left wing, leaving Jordan Farmer in the dust and cruises past Gobert's defender, Spencer Hawes, who attempts and fails to switch on to Exum, who is nothing more than a blur as he eases in for the layup. The move took two seconds and three dribbles from the top of the key and there was no stopping it. This is what it is like to have youth, speed, a handle and touch around the hoop. He has either made or been fouled on all of his attempts from within three feet this season, which may not sound impressive, but it is a skill that some other speedy point guards, like Ricky Rubio, don't have.
• At the 1:30 mark he blocks another jump shot (this time the victim was Farmar) after fighting through a screen. Over four games he has two blocks and three steals while playing just 15.8 minutes per game, and once he is seeing starter's minutes next season he projects to be an asset in both of those categories.
• For those who own Exum in dynasty leagues, the first four games should serve as confirmation that the Aussie with the great smile was worth a long-term investment. Prior to the draft I had Exum ranked second, only to Andrew Wiggins, as a franchise-changing talent that would become a marketable star worldwide and make his teammates better. Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid will end up factoring into that discussion, but the Jazz definitely got their man with the No. 5 pick.