According to the Data: How to Project Rookie Quarterbacks

How to Project Rookie Quarterbacks

Earlier this month, I broke down how to project running backs and wide receivers based on their rookie stats. For running backs, yards-per-carry is surprisingly the best predictor of future success, even more so than carries or yards. On the other hand, rookie wide receivers with the best bulk stats - yards and touchdowns - tend to have the best overall careers. Intuitively, that makes sense; yards-per-carry is a relatively stable stat that's a solid indicator of a running back's talent, whereas yards-per-reception is extremely volatile and very dependent on a wide receiver's team, skill set and so on.

Moving to quarterbacks, the choice isn't as clear. Sure, yards-per-attempt is an excellent indicator of talent, but rookie quarterbacks are also very dependent on their surrounding c

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