Mound Musings: Help Is on the Way?

Mound Musings: Help Is on the Way?

This article is part of our Mound Musings series.

Not too surprisingly, this year, it seems like there have been even more (than usual) young (at least somewhat lesser known) pitchers finding work in starting rotations. Some have enjoyed success, which often leads to decisions on whether they should be added to fantasy rosters. Even good teams with the very best pitching prospects are at least considering promotions, but some injured veterans are also likely to arrive soon. Even with good beginnings, most kids won't post long-term value, as the hitters build a book on them and uncover their flaws. However, some kids (and injured arms) will take advantage of the opportunity, and so should you.

That said, I would like to feature a few young pitchers who have impressed me with both solid numbers and future potential at this point in the season. Then, we'll flip the coin and look at some guys expected to return from the IL before too long.

Here are some young arms to pursue:

Paul Skenes (Pirates) – He finally made his much-anticipated MLB debut last weekend. Many said this was the most buzzed about pitcher since Stephen Strasburg back in 2010, and I agree. So he tossed 85 pitches (his most to date in pro ball so far), he allowed three earned runs on six hits and two walks over four innings. He did strikeout seven, but the overall numbers did not foreshadow amazing things to come. Wrong! His stuff was – forgive the overused description – electric! He didn't locate all

Not too surprisingly, this year, it seems like there have been even more (than usual) young (at least somewhat lesser known) pitchers finding work in starting rotations. Some have enjoyed success, which often leads to decisions on whether they should be added to fantasy rosters. Even good teams with the very best pitching prospects are at least considering promotions, but some injured veterans are also likely to arrive soon. Even with good beginnings, most kids won't post long-term value, as the hitters build a book on them and uncover their flaws. However, some kids (and injured arms) will take advantage of the opportunity, and so should you.

That said, I would like to feature a few young pitchers who have impressed me with both solid numbers and future potential at this point in the season. Then, we'll flip the coin and look at some guys expected to return from the IL before too long.

Here are some young arms to pursue:

Paul Skenes (Pirates) – He finally made his much-anticipated MLB debut last weekend. Many said this was the most buzzed about pitcher since Stephen Strasburg back in 2010, and I agree. So he tossed 85 pitches (his most to date in pro ball so far), he allowed three earned runs on six hits and two walks over four innings. He did strikeout seven, but the overall numbers did not foreshadow amazing things to come. Wrong! His stuff was – forgive the overused description – electric! He didn't locate all that well, but everything he threw was hot, and the command will be there. Despite his fairly pedestrian peripherals, I was giddy. Maybe you'll be lucky enough to have his owner laboring over numbers rather than celebrating a breakout performance. If so, swing a trade – today.

Christian Scott (Mets) – He's posting very good numbers so far (2.84 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with 14 strikeouts in just 12 innings), so it's not too surprising that Scott is drawing some attention. However, this appears to be a clear sign of things to come. I don't put him at the same level as Skenes, but he's not far behind, and I have him the second-best pure pitching prospect in the game today. That's not too shabby. Scott was primarily a reliever in college, but the Mets saw upside and moved him to the rotation in 2022. It's working. His bread and butter is a high 90s fastball with which he can thread a needle, but he also has a relatively effective slider and change-up. It's hard to beat a live arm with impeccable command and notable mound presence. I'll take it.

Jackson Jobe (Tigers) – The Tigers drafted him out of high school in 2021 and it has taken him a while to settle in, but there have been some positive signs. Unfortunately, there have also been some injuries – a spine injury, and more recently a hamstring injury, that have slowed his progress. He features a five-pitch mix that gives the hitter plenty to think about. I'm thinking if all goes well we'll see him in Detroit sometime this summer, and he could be an asset right away. Despite his age (21) he has the mound presence to be an instant success.

You might also consider adding these arms getting healthy:

Gerrit Cole (Yankees) – As it is with the kids above, these guys are unlikely to be secrets. The Yankees have done pretty well this year without Cole, but his 2024 debut is right on the horizon now. He started throwing off a mound earlier this month and has thrown a couple bullpens since with no reported problems. Originally, a June return was anticipated, but there has been optimism he could see the MLB mound late this month. Cole is the reigning Cy Young winner, so even if there is a bit of rust when he comes back, I don't expect it to linger. He's a true ace, and I'm ready to watch him.

Kodai Senga (Mets) – The boroughs of New York are certainly well represented in this week's Musings. Here's another Mets arm. Senga may not be as obvious as some aces, but consider that he got off to a horrible start last year, then got everything together and was a pure stud afterward. He's the definition of a "kitchen sink" pitcher – one who might throw anything in any count. He walks a few too many, but he makes up for it with strikeouts: 202 in 166 innings in 2023. Both are heavily impacted by the nasty movement he generates. He has yet to pitch in 2024 with a bum shoulder injury, and he is working through some mechanical issues, so hopefully it won't be too long.

Robbie Ray (Giants) – Sometimes I think he is hurt so often he gets forgotten. He pitched just three innings last year before requiring Tommy John surgery. However, as recently as 2021 he collected a Cy Young award by going 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP all while logging 248 strikeouts in 193 innings. In fact, he has surpassed 200 strikeouts five times. His fastball only sits in the low to mid 90s, but he gets a lot of movement, and, most importantly, he learned to throw strikes after joining Toronto during the 2020 season. Hopefully he hasn't forgotten that little trick. He is rehabbing now and expects to be back shortly after the All-Star break. There will likely be some rust initially, but you could still get a couple months from him this season.

Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks) – Kelly got off to a solid start this year (2-0, 2.19 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP), but it didn't last long. He suffered a teres major strain in his right shoulder and eventually hit the IL. You know the drill with shoulder injuries. Things drug out and the D-backs eventually moved him to the 60-day in early May, so he won't be eligible to return before late June, and even that could be pretty optimistic. Arizona did sign Jordan Montgomery, but Kelly is joined on the IL by offseason signee Eduardo Rodriguez (he's expected back in mid-June, also from a shoulder injury), so injuries have truly decimated their rotation. Like Kelly, E-Rod was initially on the 15-day IL but was moved to the 60-day following a setback in his rehab program.

Blake Snell (Giants) – We just took a look at Ray and his status regarding a July return, but he's not the only hurler the team is waiting for. Snell went on the IL with an abductor strain in mid April following three abysmal starts (0-3, 11.57 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP), so not only do the Giants want him healthy, they want him pitching like he can. He did just turn in a rehab outing at Single-A San Jose where he didn't allow a base runner for more than four innings while fanning seven. Okay, it was Single-A, but you still have to be encouraged. He only threw 46 pitches (that was the plan), so he's sure to need at least one more outing, probably two, but they are hoping for a return in late May. Command has never been his strong suit – 99 walks last year – so some rust is to be expected.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

  • I think everyone would agree, Max Fried can potentially be an ace regardless of opponent or venue. He just completed seven innings of no-hit ball against the Mets this past weekend. The only fault I saw was him having some struggles finding the strike zone, but in most cases, he kept the Mets' sticks off balance.
  • A comfort zone is important, and I feel like Detroit's Matt Manning needs to find his. Manning has filled in when the Tigers rotation needs a boost, but he's pitching at Triple-A Toledo otherwise. With Kenta Maeda hurt, he may get an extended chance. Oh, and check out his much-improved strikeout rate.
  • I keep looking for reasons the Cubs' Shota Imanaga will quit dominating. Let's see: He is too short at only 5'11" (and that might be generous). Nope, doesn't seem to matter. Just modest velocity at 92 mph. Hmmm, still gets them out. I give up. Until further notice you can add him to the list of genuine aces.
  • Earlier, I mentioned Snell getting off to bad start. He wasn't alone by any means. After three starts, Seattle's George Kirby had a 6.91 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP, but it has been steadily improving since. I think the Mariners have one of the best rotations in the game, and I expect them to be deep into the playoff hunt.

Endgame Odyssey:

Where do I begin? It's gotten to the point I think I could devote the entire weekly column to the bullpen musical chairs. Certainly, part of that is the fact that there aren't enough competent closers to go around, but some top-shelf arms have been caught up in it, too, and, this is just my opinion, but that is wrong! Let's take a look. In Pittsburgh, I think David Bednar is still the closer, and Aroldis Chapman is still his primary set-up guy. I don't think they trust Chapman with his 1.90 WHIP, so they are overworking Bednar. In my opinion, Chapman's issues stem from age. He's simply overthrowing to compensate for a 36-year-old body. In Minnesota, there appears to be a "we're on the cutting edge" approach. They use Jhoan Duran, one of the best in the business, whenever the toughest part of the lineup comes around, while someone like Griffin Jax finishes things. I don't like it. I believe high-leverage relievers prefer a set role. The Diamondbacks continue to use Kevin Ginkel in save situations, but it appears to be more of an easing of Paul Sewald back into the ninth inning after he missed time with an oblique injury. Just be patient. There are a couple other head-scratchers like Jalen Beeks over Justin Lawrence in Colorado, and Trevor Megill over Joel Payamps in Milwaukee. One could be a case of no clear closing option while in Milwaukee it's a matter of waiting for their actual closer – Devin Williams – to return from injury.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Brad Johnson
For more than 30 years, pitching guru Brad "Bogfella" Johnson has provided insightful evaluation and analysis of pitchers to a wide variety of fantasy baseball websites, webcasts and radio broadcasts. He joined RotoWire in 2011 with his popular Bogfella's Notebook.
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