2025 Stats
W-L
6-3
ERA
3.41
WHIP
1.02
K
86
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Before an early shoulder injury sidelined Kelly from mid-April to August, the right-hander was headed for a second consecutive impressive season, posting a 2.19 ERA over four starts. He had less success (4.96 ERA) following his return, but most of the damage was in August, and Kelly was back on form in September. Kelly finished with a greater HR/9 and struck out fewer batters in 2024, but when a pitcher misses four months, one should resist making judgments based on ratios/results and instead focus on the injury, which altered his pitch mix. Kelly threw more cutters and changeups than four-seamers for the first time in his career; however, he pitched well when healthy in April and September, putting him on a path for a normal winter of preparation. The Diamondbacks have confidence that the 36-year-old will return to his 2023 iteration (3.29 ERA, 9.5 K/9) and picked up his option. Read Past Outlooks
Gives up four runs in loss
Kelly (6-3) took the loss Sunday versus the Padres, allowing four runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out seven over five innings.
ANALYSIS
Kelly started fine, but he gave up three runs, including a two-run home run to Jake Cronenworth in the fourth inning. Kelly has logged at least six strikeouts in eight straight starts, but this is the third time in that span he's given up four or more runs. The right-hander has a 3.41 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 86:22 K:BB through 87 innings over 15 starts this season. His next outing is projected to be in Colorado. His previous start against the Rockies came at home, when he tossed seven innings of one-hit ball and struck out 11 on May 18, though going into Coors Field always carries at least a little danger for pitchers.
Kelly started fine, but he gave up three runs, including a two-run home run to Jake Cronenworth in the fourth inning. Kelly has logged at least six strikeouts in eight straight starts, but this is the third time in that span he's given up four or more runs. The right-hander has a 3.41 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 86:22 K:BB through 87 innings over 15 starts this season. His next outing is projected to be in Colorado. His previous start against the Rockies came at home, when he tossed seven innings of one-hit ball and struck out 11 on May 18, though going into Coors Field always carries at least a little danger for pitchers.
Pitching Stats
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2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
91
Last 10 Games
94
Last 5 Games
96
How many pitches does Merrill Kelly generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Merrill Kelly generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-3%
BAA vs LHP
2025
-1%
BAA vs RHP
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2023vs Left | .219 | 161 | 70 | 139 | 23 | |||
| Since 2023vs Right | .226 | 175 | 40 | 138 | 17 | |||
| 2025vs Left | .208 | 48 | 16 | 37 | 6 | |||
| 2025vs Right | .205 | 38 | 6 | 30 | 3 | |||
| 2024vs Left | .234 | 23 | 16 | 33 | 6 | |||
| 2024vs Right | .250 | 40 | 3 | 34 | 5 | |||
| 2023vs Left | .218 | 90 | 38 | 69 | 11 | |||
| 2023vs Right | .226 | 97 | 31 | 74 | 9 | |||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | |||||||
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-22%
ERA at Home
2025
-18%
ERA at Home
| ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2023Home | 3.07 | 1.06 | 179.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | ||||
| Since 2023Away | 3.95 | 1.24 | 159.1 | 8.6 | 2.8 | ||||
| 2025Home | 3.09 | 1.05 | 46.2 | 8.9 | 2.9 | ||||
| 2025Away | 3.79 | 0.99 | 40.1 | 8.9 | 1.6 | ||||
| 2024Home | 4.19 | 1.16 | 38.2 | 7.2 | 2.1 | ||||
| 2024Away | 3.86 | 1.17 | 35.0 | 8.2 | 2.6 | ||||
| 2023Home | 2.59 | 1.02 | 93.2 | 10.2 | 3.5 | ||||
| 2023Away | 4.07 | 1.38 | 84.0 | 8.7 | 3.5 | ||||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | ||||||||
Stat Review
How does Merrill Kelly compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
3.91K/9
8.9BB/9
2.3HR/9
0.9Fastball
91.9 mphERA
3.41WHIP
1.02BABIP
.267GB/FB
1.45Left On Base
69.4%Exit Velocity
84.4 mphBarrels/BBE
5.7%Spin Rate
2313 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
30.8%Swinging Strike
10.9%Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Kelly's ratios were nearly equivalent to his breakthrough 2022 season, but he took a different path to get there. Last season, Kelly fanned a career best 25.9 percent of batters he faced, but he also walked them at a 9.6 percent clip, the highest mark of his career. However, the 16.3 percent K-BB% was his best in a full season. Kelly didn't change his pitch mix much, other than throwing a slider a bit and it was effective. His changeup was offering chiefly driving the increase in strikeouts. Despite posting strong ratios in 2022, Kelly wasn't trusted since he didn't miss many bats. Fast forward a year and Kelly is no longer a secret after fanning well more than a batter an inning and enjoying a strong playoff run. He's likely going to be drafted around 100 picks earlier this season, which puts him in risky territory, since that assumes Kelly continues to punch out hitters at the same rate. Don't shy away from Kelly, but don't expect a repeat of last season's newfound dominance.
More Fantasy News
Another scoreless start
Kelly allowed four hits and two walks while striking out seven over six scoreless innings in a no-decision versus the Mariners on Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Rebounds with seven shutout innings
Kelly (6-2) earned the win Wednesday against Atlanta after giving up one hit and one walk in seven scoreless innings. He struck out eight.
ANALYSIS
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Early struggles in no-decision
Kelly allowed six runs (four earned) on six hits and two walks while striking out six over five innings in a no-decision versus the Nationals on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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Fades late in no-decision
Kelly came away with a no-decision in Saturday's 6-5 loss to the Cardinals, giving up four runs on six hits and a walk over six-plus innings. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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Dazzles in win
Kelly (5-2) picked up the win Sunday against Colorado, allowing one hit and three walks with 11 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Cubs could be interested
Kelly could be a trade target for the Cubs ahead of the deadline, Jim Bowden of The Athletic speculates.
ANALYSIS
There's no question the Cubs need to bolster their rotation if they want to make a deep playoff run in October, especially since Shota Imanaga has yet to return from a hamstring injury and Justin Steele is out for the rest of the season with an elbow problem. Kelly is one of two Arizona pitchers Chicago might target, with Zac Gallen being the other. Outside the shortened 2020 season in which he made only five starts, Kelly is having the best year of his career in 2025 from an ERA perspective. He owns a 3.18 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP across 14 starts and 82 innings.
There's no question the Cubs need to bolster their rotation if they want to make a deep playoff run in October, especially since Shota Imanaga has yet to return from a hamstring injury and Justin Steele is out for the rest of the season with an elbow problem. Kelly is one of two Arizona pitchers Chicago might target, with Zac Gallen being the other. Outside the shortened 2020 season in which he made only five starts, Kelly is having the best year of his career in 2025 from an ERA perspective. He owns a 3.18 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP across 14 starts and 82 innings.