Robbie Ray

31-Year-Old PitcherSP

Seattle Mariners

15-Day IL

Injury Elbow

Est. Return 7/1/2024

2023 Stats

W-L

0-1

ERA

8.10

WHIP

2.70

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

Unlock Our Projections

2023 Fantasy Outlook

Fresh off winning the AL Cy Young with Toronto in 2021, Ray joined Seattle on a five-year, $115 million deal helped his new team break a 20-year playoff drought. However, the left-hander saw his effectiveness drop across the board and finished 2022 with a 3.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 212:67 K:BB over 189 innings. He surrendered four runs in three frames during the wild-card round, and he then took a loss out of the bullpen in the ALDS without recording an out. It was an unceremonious end to the campaign as he surrendered 21 earned runs in his final 31 frames between the regular season and playoffs. Still, Ray had a solid 8.0 percent walk rate, which illustrates that his improved control from 2021 wasn't a one-year fluke. Now 31 years old, he likely won't be in contention for another Cy Young Award, but he should remain a strong mid-rotation piece for the Mariners if he can continue to keep the walks down. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#96

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 215

DOB 10/1/1991

Born Brentwood, TN

College None

Drafted 12th Rd 2010 WAS

Undergoes Tommy John surgery

PSeattle Mariners

Elbow

May 3, 2023

Ray underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
The procedure was performed by Dr. Keith Meister in Texas at the TMI Sports Medicine facility. Ray will travel to Arizona in a few weeks following his initial recovery to begin his rehab. The left-hander has already been ruled out for the remainder of the 2023 season, and it's very likely that Ray will miss time to begin the 2024 campaign as well.

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Pitching Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Robbie Ray generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Robbie Ray generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2021

-10%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-38%

BAA vs RHP

2022

-10%

BAA vs LHP

2021

-13%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2021vs Left	.203	294	91	13	56	13	3	10
Since 2021vs Right	.226	1273	372	107	261	48	5	55
2023vs Left	.400	7	3	1	2	1	0	0
2023vs Right	.250	12	0	4	2	0	0	0
2022vs Left	.212	146	44	5	29	6	3	4
2022vs Right	.236	629	168	57	134	23	2	28
2021vs Left	.187	141	44	7	25	6	0	6
2021vs Right	.216	632	204	46	125	25	3	27
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2021

-26%

ERA at Home

2023

-100%

ERA on Road

2022

-36%

ERA at Home

2021

-18%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2021Home	2.88	1.01	221.2	14	11	0	10.5	2.4	1.3
Since 2021Away	3.90	1.30	164.0	11	9	0	11.3	3.3	1.8
2023Home	8.10	2.70	3.1	0	1	0	8.1	13.5	0.0
2023Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022Home	3.02	1.02	110.1	6	6	0	10.0	2.4	1.3
2022Away	4.69	1.42	78.2	6	6	0	10.2	3.8	1.8
2021Home	2.58	0.94	108.0	8	4	0	11.0	2.1	1.4
2021Away	3.16	1.20	85.1	5	3	0	12.2	3.0	1.7
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Stat Review

How does Robbie Ray compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

0.60

K/9

8.1

BB/9

13.5

HR/9

0.0

Fastball

93.0 mph

ERA

8.10

WHIP

2.70

BABIP

.385

GB/FB

2.00

Left On Base

44.4%

Exit Velocity

77.0 mph

Barrels/BBE

3.1%

Spin Rate

2229 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

25.0%

Swinging Strike

9.9%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Mariners Depth Chart

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Robbie Ray See More

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22 days ago

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25 days ago

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32 days ago

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42 days ago

Mike Barner’s Monday picks include a Braves stack against San Diego.

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

A large majority of the baseball world missed on Ray last season, us included. Statistically speaking, there was no case for drafting Ray heading into 2021. He had posted a double-digit walk rate in four consecutive seasons, including a 17.9 BB% during the shortened 2020 campaign, he struggled with homers and his WHIP had been north of 1.33 in all but one of his big-league seasons. However, the lefty provided a valuable reminder that these players are human beings and not static numbers on a spreadsheet. After joining the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8 million deal, Ray went to work on his mechanics, reverting to an old three-quarters arm slot he had used in the past. His adjustments bore immediate fruit in spring training and Ray's dominance continued into the regular season, culminating in an improbable AL Cy Young Award. He was more confident attacking hitters and shaved more than 10 percentage points off his walk rate. The Mariners bought high in the form of a five-year, $115 million contract. You'll have to buy high too if you want him on your fantasy roster this season.

If you came here looking for a case to draft Ray, you've come to the wrong place. Simply put, there is nothing to hang your hat on here. Ray made 12 appearances (11 starts) between Arizona and Toronto last season and went 2-5 with a 6.62 ERA. The lefty gained a tick of velocity but it did not matter; in fact, Ray's already-poor control only worsened, with his walk rate reaching a truly disastrous level at 17.9%. His struggles with the long ball only got worse as Ray served up 2.26 HR/9. He can still get his strikeouts around all the walks and homers, but it's not enough to salvage his fantasy value. The damage he's capable of doing to the ratio categories makes him a dangerous pitcher to have in your active lineup -- you could be left digging out of the hole for weeks. If you have to pick him up to stream him at some point, Godspeed. Try your best not to get to that point.

Pitch inefficiency continues to haunt Ray. His 33 starts tied for the eighth most, but 174.1 innings checked in as 44th most. While an 11.2 BB% in tandem with a 31.5 K% contributed to high pitch counts, a 1.55 HR/9 also led to him hitting the showers early. Ray fanned double-digit hitters seven times, including in his last two starts of the season. However, he also issued at least four free passes 10 times with another 10 allowing multiple homers. Of slight concern is Ray's velocity has dipped for two straight seasons. Still just 28 years old, there's a chance Ray's command and control improve, but if they do not, a further decline could lower strikeouts, his primary fantasy asset. There's no harbinger of a change. Until Ray demonstrates consistently better control and command, he is what he is -- a plus for strikeouts but a big ratio risk, best streamed in favorable matchups.

Ray's season was shortened by injury. He made only 24 starts and fell well short of earning what many fantasy owners invested in him. His 3.93 ERA was a near-perfect settlement between his inflated 4.90 ERA in 2016 and his fortunate 2.89 ERA in 2017. It could have been much better with more credence to the times-through-the-order penalty. Ray's ERA the first time through a lineup was 2.81 and 2.59 the second time through, but ballooned to 9.13 thereafter as 11 of his 19 home runs allowed came that third time through. This has long been a problem for Ray, but one he was able to keep at bay in 2017 for most of the season. Ray's 2018 was a reminder that one season in a new direction does not mean a problem is resolved. He still gets strikeouts late in the game, but his command falters, so his misses become extra-base hits more often than not. He is a three-pitch guy with two strong breaking balls, but a quicker hook would help him in 2019.

2016 Robbie Ray was not as bad as his win-loss record and ERA. Conversely, he was not as good as his 2017 win-loss record and ERA either. The book on Ray has been: he is going to get a ton of strikeouts (12.1 K/9 last season), he is going to struggle with his command (3.9 BB/9) and he'll serve up some homers (1.28 HR/9). The difference between 2016 and 2017 was in his left-on-base percentage, as he stranded 68.7 percent of runners in 2016 but jumped that rate up to 84.5 percent in 2017. That latter rate is what power relievers do and starters struggle to eclipse 80 percent in consecutive seasons. He also avoided the Times Through The Order (TTOP) penalty; after allowing 49 percent of his 2016 earned runs when he was allowed to face batters for a third time, that number fell to 26 percent this past season. Expect the three truisms to continue for the most part, although with the new humidor at Chase Field, Ray should be able to cut down on the long balls.

If fantasy baseball pitchers were measured just in terms of strikeout rate, Ray might be among the first arms taken in drafts. He finished last season with an 11.3 K/9, which ranked second in the majors. Ray struck out 10 or more batters four times. Ray often racked up the strikeouts only to surround them with mediocre overall stats. Walks have been a big part of the issue. Ray walked 3.7 hitters per nine innings last season, which is in line with his career 3.6 BB/9. Ray's propensity for issuing free passes offsets his ability to miss bats and helps explain his 1.45 career WHIP. If -- and this is a big if -- Ray could cut down on the walks, he'd likely take off and post stellar fantasy numbers. Even if he does not improve upon last season's ratios, the strikeouts alone make him a solid middle-round investment in mixed leagues, and he should be particularly appealing for owners looking to supplement a low-ratios/middling-strikeouts starter taken ahead of him in drafts.

Though his win-loss numbers didn’t show it, Ray put together a solid 2015 for the Diamondbacks. He struck out 119 batters and compiled a 3.52 ERA (3.53 FIP) across 127.2 innings, and according to his 1.7 WAR, he was second the second best pitcher on the team, trailing only closer Brad Ziegler. It was a marked improvement from 2014, when Ray posted an 8.16 ERA in nine games (six starts) for Detroit. Ray could still probably stand to improve his control - he walked 3.5 batters per nine innings in 2015, which matched his 2014 rate. While he didn’t join the rotation for good until June last year, Ray should be a staple in the D-Backs rotation at the outset of 2016. However, this is a team that has cycled through rotation arms with frequency over the past couple seasons, so if Ray struggles there will be another middling option waiting to take his place.

The Tigers were high enough on Ray to make him the key piece in the Doug Fister trade prior to the 2014 season. Unfortunately, Ray's lone season in the Tigers' organization was a rough one. The 23-year-old lefty split time between Triple-A Toledo and Detroit. In 20 appearances for the Mud Hens, Ray went 7-6 with a 4.22 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 75:44 K:BB ratio in 100.1 innings. His time in Detroit was even bumpier, but on the plus side, Ray did impress in the Arizona Fall League, allowing three earned runs and striking out 12 in 11 innings. Although it was a disappointing year, it was Ray's first taste of Triple-A and major league ball, and with a fastball that touches 93 mph, a changeup and an improving slider, there's reason for optimism heading into his first year with Arizona. Harnessing his control is the biggest obstacle Ray needs to hurdle before the start of the regular season. If Ray can nab the final spot in the Diamondbacks' rotation, he'll garner some interest in deep mixed and NL-only leagues.

Ray broke through at High-A last year and held his own as a 21-year-old after a promotion to Double-A, and the Nationals wasted no time cashing in his new-found prospect status by dealing him for Doug Fister. Ray's control remains a work in progress, and given the Tigers' recent failures to develop left-handers with similar profiles (Exhibit A: Andrew Oliver) he can hardly be considered can't-miss. However, if Ray does build on last year's success, a 2015 major league debut seems likely.

More Fantasy News

Needs surgery, done for season

PSeattle Mariners

Elbow

April 26, 2023

Mariners manager Scott Servais announced Wednesday that Ray is scheduled to undergo season-ending surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his left elbow, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.

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Could return in middle of May

PSeattle Mariners

Elbow

April 19, 2023

Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto said Wednesday that Ray (elbow) could return from the 15-day injured list around the middle of May, Jen Mueller of Root Sports Northwest reports.

ANALYSIS
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Not ready to begin throwing program

PSeattle Mariners

Elbow

April 18, 2023

Ray (elbow) told reporters before Tuesday's game against the Brewers that he's not quite ready to begin a throwing program, but that the progression on his left flexor strain has been good and he'll undergo an MRI later this week, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.

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To be re-evaluated Monday

PSeattle Mariners

Elbow

April 14, 2023

Ray (elbow) will be re-evaluated Monday, after which a throwing program could be mapped out, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.

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Not cleared to throw yet

PSeattle Mariners

Elbow

April 11, 2023

Mariners manager Scott Servais told reporters before Tuesday's game against the Cubs that Ray (elbow) hasn't started throwing yet but is feeling better, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.

ANALYSIS
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