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FantasyDraft MLB: Friday Values

Juan Carlos Blanco

Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for close to 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, and the NFL for Rotowire.com, including serving as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' beat writer. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports.

PITCHERS:

Chris Archer, TB vs. BAL ($24,400):- Its an interesting pitching slate Friday headed up by Archer and Stephen Strasburg, but I give the nod to the former if youre spending up. The Orioles are striking out at a 27.1 percent clip and posting a .279 wOBA and majors-worst 26.1 percent hard contact rate against right-handers on the road over the last month (284 plate appearances). Archer has double-digit strikeout games in three of his last five starts, which has allowed him to eclipse 30 fantasy points twice during that stretch. Hes also allowing just a .276 wOBA in 53 innings at Tropicana Field while boasting a 12.74 K/9 at his home park as well.

Seth Lugo, NYM at SF ($15,200):- The returning Felix Hernandez is the wild card of this pitching slate with a price of just $11,600, so hes certainly an option for GPPs. However, Lugo seems to be a bit of a safer choice, considering the way hes looked in his first two starts and the matchup he draws. The Mets right-hander has compiled a pair of quality starts versus the Braves and Nationals, posting 24.35 and 13.60 fantasy points, respectively. He faces a Giants squad that sports a majors-low .265 wOBA and 26.6 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching over the last month in their cavernous home park. Lugo was also rock-solid on the road in his rookie 2016 campaign, posting a 2.64 ERA and allowing a .287 wOBA over 30.2 innings and he allowed just an earned run over seven innings at hitter-friendly SunTrust Park in his season debut this year.

INFIELD

Edwin Encarnacion, CLE vs. MIN ($10,400):- Twins starter Adalberto Mejia has struggled against hitters of both handedness and has yielded a .369 wOBA, seven homers and a 5.53 xFIP to right-handed hitters, along with a 39.1 percent hard contact rate to the 44 batters of that handedness hes faced on the road. Encarnacion has been unsurprisingly lethal against lefties, especially at home, where hes compiled a .429 wOBA, 28.6 percent line drive rate and 47.6 percent hard contact rate versus that handedness. The Twins bullpen could also be vulnerable, considering theyve pitched 12.1 innings over the last three days and have surrendered a 6.75 ERA, .328 wOBA and 33.7 percent hard contact rate versus right-handed hitters on the road over the last month.

Logan Morrison, TB vs. BAL ($9,300):- Orioles starter Ubaldo Jimenez has been decimated by left-handed hitters to the tune of a .415 wOBA, a 3.46 HR/9 and 5.04 xFIP. Morrison has smacked 17 of his 21 homers on the season versus righties and owns a .394 wOBA, .351 ISO and 46.8 percent hard contact rate versus that handedness. Hes been raking in June as well, compiling a .390 wOBA over 73 plate appearances. The matchup against the Orioles bullpen could be favorable as well for Morrison, considering theyve yielded a .355 wOBA versus lefty bats on the road in the last month.

Justin Bour, MIA vs. CHC ($8,800):- Bour has pounded right-handed pitching for a .398 wOBA, .292 ISO, 21.8 percent line drive rate and 48.7 percent hard contact rate at Marlins Park, and owns a .415 wOBA and .322 ISO at home overall. The matchup against both Cubs starter John Lackey and the Chicago bullpen both line up in his favor Friday, with the former yielding a .371 wOBA, 11 homers, a 24.4 percent HR/FB rate and 38.0 percent hard contact rate to left-handed hitters, and the latter surrendering a 4.41 ERA, .347 wOBA and 34.2 percent hard contact rate to lefty bats on the road in the last month.

OUTFIELD

Bryce Harper, WAS vs. CIN ($10,800):- The Reds may be sending out a sacrificial lamb in the form of rookie Luis Castillo, whos making the jump up from Double-A to make his major-league debut against one of the most potent offenses in baseball. While virtually all the Nationals bats should be under consideration, Harper stands out, considering his .475 wOBA, .379 ISO, 16 homers and 196 wRC+ versus righties at Nationals Park. Additionally, in a game that could feature the Reds bullpen prominently, its worth noting that Cincinnati relievers have given up a massive 9.16 ERA, .421 wOBA and 43.1 percent hard contact rate to the 95 lefty batters theyve faced on the road over the last month.

Corey Dickerson, TB vs. BAL ($9,200):- The struggles of Orioles starter Ubaldo Jimenez and the Baltimore bullpen against left-handed hitters were detailed earlier, while Dickerson checks in with a .389 wOBA, .273 ISO, 24.0 percent line drive rate and 38.6 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. Hes also continued squaring up on the ball in impressive fashion in June after a hot first two months, posting a season-high 28.3 percent line drive rate along with a 35.6 percent hard contact rate over his last 77 plate appearances.

Avisail Garcia, CWS vs. OAK ($7,200):- For whatever reason, Garcia seems perpetually underpriced, making him a particularly appealing cost-conscious option for cash games or tournaments Friday. As starter Jharel Cotton has given up a .386 wOBA, 5.38 xFIP and massive 50.0 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters on the road, while Garcia checks in with a .415 wOBA and .214 ISO versus right-handed hitters at home. Hes also compiled a 24.2 percent line drive rate, 34.0 percent hard contact rate and 10 homers overall versus that handedness, and the As bullpen checks in having pitched the most innings (14) of any in baseball in the last three days.

UTILITY:

Corey Seager, LAD vs. COL ($9,900):- Despite the lefty-on-lefty matchup, Seager makes for a viable play Friday, as hes actually compiled a .430 wOBA, .250 ISO and 41.7 percent hard contact rate versus southpaws at home. Hes also been tearing the cover off the ball in June, posting a 27.3 percent line drive rate and 50.9 percent hard contact rate over the 88 plate appearances hes logged during the month. Hoffman has been tough against lefties, but Seagers talent and the fact the Rockies bullpen has pitched 12.1 innings over the last three days and given up a 5.03 ERA and .326 wOBA to left-handed hitters on the road in the last month.

Mitch Haniger, SEA vs. HOU ($8,000):- A few Mariners could make for viable plays against Astros starter Joe Musgrove on Friday, with Haniger being a reasonably-priced option for either cash or GPPs. The emerging outfielder has a .455 wOBA, 197 wRC+, 27.8 percent line drive rate and 41.7 percent hard contact rate at Safeco Field, including a .478 wOBA, 209 wRC+ and 42.9 percent hard contact rate versus righties there. Musgrove has surrendered a .377 wOBA, 5.33 xFIP (including .594 on the road) and 34.1 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters, while the Houston bullpen has surrendered a 6.23 ERA, 22.1 percent line drive and 40.6 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters on the road over the last month.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.