FanDuel MLB: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel MLB: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

Thankfully, April 6 is the last unusual Friday of the MLB season. The last round of home openers will be played Monday, which will put all 30 teams in action (weather permitting) every Friday for the rest of the season.

This week, FanDuel has a two-game slate available for the 4:10 ET games; KAN/CLE and ATL/COL can be played on its own, or as an all-day slate with late swap that adds those two games to the seven night games.

The focus of this piece is the seven-game main slate.

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Pitcher

Lance McCullers, HOU vs. SD ($8,600) -- The Astros are heavily-favored against the Padres in Game 1 of their series Friday (-290 at first glance Friday). Don't forget, the Padres ranked second in team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching last season (25.3% K%), and there is still a lot of swing-and-miss in the 2018 version of the San Diego lineup. McCullers has the arsenal necessary to miss a lot of bats anyway as he continues to use his curveball heavily to induce whiffs. In his first start of the season, he through that pitch 56 percent of the time en route to a 10-strikeout day.

Also consider: Kenta Maeda, LAD at SFG ($9,000) -- Priced up $300 higher and with a road matchup against an opponent that is less prone to the whiff, Maeda should check in with an ownership rate below McCullers' level Friday night. With a slight uptick in velocity on his fastball in his 2018 debut (up to 92.1 mph from 91.5 mph last season), Maeda leaned on his four-seamer more often, while also increasing the use of his slider and nearly ditching his changeup entirely -- which graded out as his worst offering last season. He's a viable pivot from McCullers, but it's going to be difficult to pass up on at least one of the significantly cheaper arms on the mound Friday in favor of Maeda.

Cheap GPP Consideration: Luis Castillo at CIN ($7,100) -- The price on McCullers is low enough to likely keep ownership on Castillo from getting out of hand despite a very low price for a road matchup against the Pirates. Starting for the Pirates, Trevor Williams may appear to be viable on the surface after he pitched well in his home starts at PNC Park in 2017 (3.45 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). Cold conditions may have been a factor, but Williams' average fastball velocity was down from 92.1 mph last season to 89.8 in his first start of the season.

Fade: Trevor Williams, PIT vs. CIN ($6,400) -- Velocity can fluctuate early on, but the drop with Williams' fastball in his first 2018 start was enough to pass on him for his second turn to see if where things stand.

Catcher/First Base

Anthony Rizzo, CHC at MIL ($3,800) -- When the Cubs travel to Miller Park, their left-handed hitters get a massive park boost. At Wrigley, the three-year park index for left-handed hitters' home runs is 88. At Miller Park during that span, it's 131. Brandon Woodruff is starting for the Brewers on Friday night, leaving Rizzo with a platoon advantage against an inexperienced starter whose season ERA projections range from 4.28 (ZiPS) to 4.71 (Steamer). Since the start of the 2016 season, Rizzo's 141 wRC+ against right-handed pitching ranks 10th (he's tied with Kris Bryant) among qualified hitters.

Second Base

Jonathan Schoop, BAL at NYY ($3,400) -- The short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium gets all of the attention. You probably know that no park boosts left-handed home runs more than Yankee Stadium. You may not be fully aware of how good the park is for righties, as the three-year park index for right-handed homers is 123; ranking it second behind Citizens Bank Ball Park in Philly league-wide. (For lefties, Yankee Stadium has a home-run park factor of 142 -- the highest in MLB). Additionally, Yankee Stadium has reduced strikeouts more than any park other than Coors Field. The Orioles have deployed Schoop from the No. 3 spot in the lineup in each of their first seven games, and there is little reason to think they'll move him out of that spot with a righty-lefty matchup against CC Sabathia on tap Friday.

If you are playing the All-Day or two-game early slate, Ozzie Albies is still cheap ($3,600) despite a weekend series getting underway at Coors Field.

Third Base

Adrian Beltre, TEX vs. TOR ($2,600) -- Weather may be an issue in this game, so be sure to check reports closer to first pitch. There should be plenty of interest in the third baseman in the visitor's dugout in Arlington on Friday night as well (Josh Donaldson, $4,600 v. Matt Moore), but Beltre opens up a lot of salary flexibility. The knock on Beltre in the twilight of his career has been durability, which is considerably less important when you're building a fresh lineup each day. Friday's starter for the Jays is Marco Estrada, who has been vulnerable to the long ball with hitters on both sides of the plate, while carrying a reverse split against righties (.336 wOBA) since the start of 2016.

If the aforementioned weather concerns persist throughout the day in Arlington, Tim Beckham is very interesting if he leads off against Sabathia and the Yankees at $2,800.

Shortstop

Elvis Andrus, TEX vs. TOR ($3,200) -- Hopefully, an even cheaper option a top a lineup will emerge when the lineups are released in case the rain currently in the forecast comes to fruition and impacts the Rangers-Jays matchup. If this game ends up getting played, Andrus is a solid value play at a thinned-out position if you're unable to afford Manny Machado ($3,800) against the Yankees. With a $600 price difference, it's a reasonably easy pivot to make, and it doing that leaves you with a potential three-man stack from the O's if Beckham leads off and Schoop remains in the three-hole. While Andrus doesn't have gaudy power numbers against righties, he does an excellent job of putting the ball in play frequently against them (13.2% K% since the start of 2016).

Outfield

Brett Gardner, NYY vs. BAL ($2,800) -- My optimism about Kevin Gausman comes and goes very quickly. Even when he's pitching well, he's not at a level where I would expect him to shut down the current iteration of the Yankees' lineup. Gardner is the bargain play of the bunch, leading off, and carrying a price tag below $3,000 (Stanton and Judge are $4,900 and $4,700, respectively). Gausman's struggle to keep the ball in the park, paired with a difficult matchup in an extremely hitter-friendly environment, makes him an easy target.

Ian Happ, CHC at MIL ($3,200) -- The same framework of utilizing Rizzo at first base applies to Happ, whose ability as a switch-hitter makes him less susceptible to late-inning removals as opposing teams try to leverage more favorable matchups with their relievers. Since homering on the first pitch of the 2018 season in Miami last week, Happ does not have an extra-base hit in the four games he's played since then. He's had multiple strikeouts in every games he's played this season (2:14 BB:K, 24 plate appearances). The assumption here is that he'll get another shot in the leadoff spot for the Cubs on Friday, but keep an eye on his placement in the order and be prepared to make an adjustment if he's dropped out of the top-five.

Jesse Winker, CIN at PIT ($2,400) -- Winker appears to be the Reds' leadoff man against right-handed pitching, and getting some discounted exposure to Pirates starter Trevor Williams is appealing with the aforementioned velocity drop in his first outing. The power Winker showed in his debut with the Reds last season (.529 SLG in 47 games) is almost certainty unsustainable. His hit tool has always been his carrying tool, and with a very discerning eye at the plate, his production floor is very stable with a prominent spot in the Reds' lineup on the large side of a platoon.

If the weather in Arlington holds off (this phrase is now available with a ctrl + v on my keyboard), Nomar Mazara is getting into my lineups at $2,700.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Derek VanRiper plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: RotoWireDVR, DraftKings: BentleysChair, Yahoo: d.vanriper,.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Derek VanRiper
Derek was a frequent writer and media host. During his tenure, he'd been a two-time finalist for the FSWA's Baseball Writer of the Year award, and winner of the Best Football Article on the Web (2009) and Best Baseball Article on the Web (2010) awards. Derek also had hosted RotoWire's shows on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (XM 87, Sirius 210).
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