FanDuel MLB: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel MLB: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

Welcome to the normal part of the schedule.

The only thing we need now is better weather -- keep a very close eye on the reports Friday afternoon, as cold temperatures are returning the Midwest, along with rain (and likely snow) over the course of the weekend.

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Pitcher

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TEX ($10,000) -- The top of the pitcher list is soft from a price standpoint, as Cole's matchup is more favorable than usual with the rash of injuries currently depleting the Texas lineup. Without Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor, and Delino DeShields Jr., the Rangers are likely a below-average offense in the short term despite having more interesting depth than most teams forced to play without three of their regulars. Cole's price does reflect his dominance from his first two starts this season -- both seven-inning outings with 11 strikeouts -- which included a 67-point performance against the Rangers in his first start as a member of the Astros.

Also consider: Zack Greinke -- AZ at LAD ($9,000), Kenta Maeda -- LAD vs. AZ ($9,300)

GPP Fade: The best fade argument for tournaments might actually be made against Cole, since this Friday's board is light on high-priced alternatives, a problem that gets worse with Greinke and Maeda matched up against each other. Consider this an acknowledgment of the logic, but I'm content to use Cole in tournaments and find differentiation for my lineup elsewhere.

Cheap(ish) GPP Consideration: Mike Clevinger vs. TOR ($8,300) -- Admittedly, it has taken me a little while to shake the mentality that the Jays are an offense that should not be picked on, which was the case when they had Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista anchoring the lineup pre-2017. Clevinger hasn't had a monster strikeout game in his first two attempts in 2018, but his opponents -- the Royals and Angels -- may prove capable of avoiding whiffs over the course of the season. Last season, the Jays were a below-average offense against righties (92 wRC+) while carrying a 21.3% K%, two traits that seem unlikely to change given the current makeup of their lineup.

Catcher/First Base

Ryan Zimmerman, WAS vs. COL ($2,500) -- The opponent has changed, and the price has dipped, and my position hasn't really changed from earlier in the week when I recommended Zimmerman on Tuesday against Mike Foltynewicz and the Braves. Against Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland, Zimmerman picks up the platoon advantage and avoids the possibility of sitting in favor of Matt Adams, which could become an issue if his slow start drags on through the end of April. In his resurgence last season, Zimmerman pummeled southpaws (.331/.385/.654), and Freeland's primary flaw is his struggle to miss bats against righties. Nats stacks figure to be popular Friday, and for good reason, but Zimmerman is the cheapest path to valuable exposure to the matchup.

Second Base

Whit Merrifield, KC vs. LAA ($3,300) -- During draft season, Merrifield reached a level of skepticism that I usually reserve for scones, and admittedly, daily reports of hard contact during the spring had me questioning everything. The price is been falling over the first two weeks of the season, and the Royals dropped him to fifth in the order for the series opener against the Angels on Thursday, so it will be interesting to see if he remains there Friday against lefty Andrew Heaney, or if he ends up back in a table-setting role if the Royals elect to give Jon Jay a day off (he hasn't had one yet). I'm still skeptical of Merrifield (and scones), but the lines of price, potential lineup position, and matchup (o/u 9.5) intersect right now at a point where I'm comfortable deploying him.

Third Base

Alex Bregman, HOU vs. TEX ($3,800) -- I've been picking on Cole Hamels for roughly two years now, and while he's still capable of doing some things well (.247 wOBA against lefties since 2016), the warts are pretty clear (1.28 HR/9, .324 wOBA against righties). With an 8.5 over/under, the runs in Houston have to come somewhere, and Bregman's 160 wRC+ against lefties last season thanks to his combination of a low K% (13.0%) and pop (.570 SLG) makes him the most appealing Astros bat on the board since his price is his $600 less than that of Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa.

Shortstop

Scott Kingery, PHI at TB ($3,300) -- Jake Faria's miserable outing in Boston last time out may lead plenty of lineups toward Philly stacks Friday. Kingery as an alternative for those who don't have room in the budget to the pay premium for Carlos Correa ($4,400) or Didi Gregorius ($4,300), and he's part of a second-tier of DFS shortstops on FanDuel that is currently thinned out with Xander Bogaerts and Elvis Andrus on the DL. He continues to move around the Phillies' lineup between the second, third, and sixth spots this week, without any discernible pattern based on the handedness of the opposing starting pitcher. In any case, if he's in the lineup against Faria, is one of the few value options at the shortstop position despite the big slate Friday night.

Outfield

Nick Castellanos, DET vs. NYY ($3,200) -- I like Jordan Montgomery quite a bit, but I'm not planning on using him on FanDuel on Friday, which makes Castellanos an option given the reasonable price. Since the start of last season, Castellanos has hit .283/.333/.587 against lefties (.921 OPS). For the sake of comparison, Giancarlo Stanton is $4,700 with a great matchup against Mike Fiers, and he's posted a .921 OPS against righties during that same span. (Play them both, if you can afford it and it's not snowing/raining/sleeting in Detroit on Friday night.)

Michael Conforto, NYM vs. MIL ($3,800) -- The Mets have been using Conforto as their leadoff hitter against righties, so he'll likely be atop the order against Zach Davies on Friday. Davies has a sub-20% K% against lefties and righties since the start of the 2016 season, and that may prove to be particularly problematic against a stronger-than-usual Mets lineup. Davies' home-run rate splits favor lefties (1.16 HR/9) more than righties (0.91 HR/9), and Citi Field has played a whisker above neutral for left-handed power over the past three seasons.

Hunter Renfroe, SD vs. SF ($2,600) -- Admittedly, we reaped the benefits of a surprising result Tuesday when Renfroe hit his three-run homer against right-handed reliever Bryan Shaw instead of left-handed starter Tyler Anderson. Sometimes we get lucky with a good process, and we'll have to remember that when the same good process fails to yield a desirable result. Renfroe has struggled against righties as a big-league hitter (31.5% K%, 75 wRC+), but he has mashed against lefties (18.8% K%, 172 wRC+) to the tune of a .309/.383/.669 line. Yet again, he gets a southpaw at a discounted price, and it's one (Ty Blach) who has been extremely limited in his ability to miss bats against big-league hitters.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Derek VanRiper plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: RotoWireDVR, DraftKings: BentleysChair, Yahoo: d.vanriper,.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Derek VanRiper
Derek was a frequent writer and media host. During his tenure, he'd been a two-time finalist for the FSWA's Baseball Writer of the Year award, and winner of the Best Football Article on the Web (2009) and Best Baseball Article on the Web (2010) awards. Derek also had hosted RotoWire's shows on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (XM 87, Sirius 210).
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