This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Like great pitching?
Tuesday's slate should deliver plenty of it, as five aces are taking the ball across the 14 games available on the FanDuel main slate (The Rangers-Indians matchup is part of the all-day contests, with an earlier start time).
Even with the great top-end arms, there are plenty of stack targets as well, including:
- Brewers vs. Homer Bailey (at GABP)
- Cardinals vs. James Shields (at Busch Stadium)
- Twins vs. Marco Estrada (at Target Field)
- Angels vs. Alex Cobb (at Angels Stadium)
- Dodgers vs. Matt Koch (at Chase Field)
The Dodgers announced Monday that Corey Seager will undergo Tommy John surgery, causing him to miss the rest of the 2018 season. The absence of Seager, Justin Turner, and Yasiel Puig thins out the lineup in a big way, but with Chris Taylor moving in to play shortstop, the Dodgers are utilizing their outfield depth to give Joc Pederson and Alex Verdugo more playing time, at least in the short term.
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Pitcher
Cash: Max Scherzer, WAS vs. PIT ($11,500) and Chris Sale, BOS vs. KC ($11,300) -- With five pitchers on the board at $10K or higher, there's not much to worry about on the cash game front. Noah Syndergaard is one of the other $10K pitchers at home (against the Braves), but the Braves' offense -- which has posted a 107 wRC+ against righties and an impressive 17.6% K% -- is one that doesn't need to be messed with in these conditions. Justin Verlander draws the Yankees, which of course, isn't a cash-friendly matchup either. In terms of the wRC+ splits, there is no difference in picking on the Royals with a lefty (Sale) or targeting the Pirates with a righty (Scherzer), but the Royals have a 25.6% K% against southpaws, which nudges Sale just ahead of Scherzer even though both are entirely reasonable.
Also consider: Clayton Kershaw, LA at ARI ($11,100)
GPP: Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. ATL ($10,600) -- The ownership rates should be split up nicely with Sale, Scherzer and Kershaw garnering most of the interest along with the Thor. When Syndergaard last faced the Braves in Atlanta on April 20, he turned in a quality start (6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 0 BB) and came away with 31 FanDuel points in a no-decision. Admittedly, I'm not sure where the confidence level of the masses rests with regard to the productivity of the Braves' offense, but the risk here is moderate, at worst. Comparatively speaking, the number of owners avoiding pitchers against the Braves will almost certainly be much lower than the number of owners avoiding pitchers against the Yankees, which paired with the long list of high-end alternatives, should provide a rare lower-ownership night for Justin Verlander at $10,800.
GPP Fade: With five aces on the board, a hard GPP fade is unnecessary Tuesday. It's not a true fade, but you can probably save the Costco pack of Tums necessary to use Chris Archer for another night.
Catcher/First Base
Matt Olson, OAK at SEA ($2,800) -- Olson has made hard contact at a higher rate in 2018 (50.0%) than he did while tearing up the American League as a rookie in 2017 (40.3%). The result has been a trade of flyballs for line drives, but it's still surprising that he's homered just three times in 28 games to begin the season. With a strikeout rate that is approaching 35 percent, Olson is a high-risk, high-reward tournament consideration against Felix Hernandez at Safeco Field on Tuesday night.
Among the higher-priced options, Cody Bellinger at $3,900 against Matt Koch and the D-backs is a more cash-friendly consideration. Despite his relatively disappointing start to the 2018 campaign, he's lowered his strikeout rate from 26.6% as a rookie to 21.2% this season -- a particularly encouraging step when you consider his struggles with whiffs in the second half and in the playoffs.
Second Base
Starlin Castro, MIA vs. PHI ($3,000) -- I rarely rely on Castro in DFS, and I'm not sure I would play him outside of cash games, even with a nice home matchup against Phillies right-handed Zach Eflin. With a .750 OPS against righties since the start of last season, Castro's splits are far from the damage Asdrubal Cabrera (.938 OPS, $3,800) does against lefties, or even what Jed Lowrie has done against righties (.857 OPS, $3,700) during that same period. The appeal with Castro comes from Eflin's extremely low strikeout rate -- as his 13.9% mark against righties is the lowest of the 30 starters taking the mound Tuesday.
From the cheap, but possibly broken older players group, Ian Kinsler is $3,100 against Alex Cobb and the Orioles. Cobb has failed to strike a batter out in two of his first three starts as a member of the Orioles. Since the start of 2016, Cobb's splits aren't far from neutral, but they're bad enough against hitters on both sides of the plate (.343 wOBA against lefties, .326 wOBA against righties) to plug Kinsler in as the Angels' likely leadoff hitter Tuesday night. Matt Carpenter is also $3,100, with a matchup against James Shields and the White Sox. Both players are considerations solely based on lineup placement and opponent, and it's fair to wonder if they're both healthy given that they're both carrying average exit velocities below the league average mark.
Third Base
Travis Shaw, MIL at CIN ($3,800) -- Reds starter Homer Bailey has posted passable ratios early on -- 4.19 ERA, 1.22 WHIP -- despite underlying numbers that point to significant issues (5.5 K/9, 1.57 HR/9). The over/under for Tuesday's matchup between the Brewers and Reds at Great American Ballpark sits at 9.5, second only to the Rockies-Cubs matchup at Wrigley with warm departures at 15+ mph winds blowing out. Bailey's .361 wOBA allowed to lefties since the start of 2016 ranks sixth-worst among the 30 starters pitching Tuesday, while Shaw's .282/.364/.537 line against righties since the start of last season, and getting a chance to hit cleanup in a park that boosts left-handed homers more than any other in play Tuesday makes him a strong play in cash and GPP formats, though he'll likely be among the top-owned players at the hot corner.
Shortstop
Zack Cozart, LAA vs. BAL ($2,700) -- If you're hesitant to trust Ian Kinsler, I get it. Cozart has been hitting sixth for the Angels, which steers him more toward GPP use than cash-game use, but the price and matchup against Alex Cobb and the Orioles are low enough to make him an option in both setups. Cozart's .279/.360/.511 line against righties since the start of last season is one of the more surprising splits on the board, and while the immediate reaction might be to assume that he hit a lot of his homers against righties at Great American Ballpark as a member of the Reds last season, he actually split his home-run output evenly between his home park and the road (12 each).
Outfield
Marcell Ozuna, STL vs. CHW ($3,300) -- Ozuna is on the list of players with a high hard-hit rate (46.3%), but a disappointing line through the first month of the season (.250/.268/.333). Opposing pitchers are challenging him with more first-pitch strikes (67.0%), and it seems like it's only a matter of time before Ozuna begins to attack those offerings. The struggles of James Shields are well documented and include a .354 wOBA and 1.82 HR/9 against right-handed hitters since the start of 2016. This is an easy call in cash games, and I'm tempted to look past potentially inflated ownership rates in tournaments as well.
Christian Yelich, MIL at CIN ($3,600) -- Yelich turned in his first multi-hit game since returning from the DL on April 18 in Monday's win over the Reds -- he also stole third base as part of a double steal -- and he'll draw the Bailey matchup Tuesday that put Travis Shaw atop the list of plays at third base. Stacking Brewers should be popular again Tuesday, as matchups against the Reds also leave hitters with opportunities against the league's worst bullpen (-0.9 fWAR).
Joc Pederson, LAD at ARI ($2,500) -- Both Pederson and Alex Verdugo will be heavily utilized cheap plays in the outfield, and with Verdugo offering the salary floor price ($2,000) and the typical excitement of a shiny new toy in the player pool, he might be the slightly higher owned player of the two. Chris Taylor figures to move to shortstop for the Dodgers on a regular basis, with Pederson and Verdugo spending time in the corners until Yasiel Puig returns from an ankle injury. Unproven D-backs starter Matt Koch is making the start for Arizona on Tuesday, while Pederson's career .235/.364/.465 line against righties (128 wRC+) offers an interesting ceiling at a very affordable price.
