FanDuel MLB: Wednesday Value Plays

FanDuel MLB: Wednesday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

Wednesday's slate is divided up almost evenly with an early slate starting at 1:05 p.m. EDT featuring seven afternoon games before giving way to the night's main slate of eight games at 7:05 p.m. EDT. The main slate features three stud pitchers in Jacob deGrom (vs ATL), Stephen Strasburg (vs PIT) and Luis Severino (at HOU). However, all three have red flags as the Braves have been outstanding offensively this season, Houston at home is a brutal matchup and Strasburg has given up four of more earned runs in three of his six starts this season. Dylan Bundy will also look to get back on track, but flying across the country to face the Angels is not an ideal situation. It appears to be a good night to look in the mid-range for a starting pitcher.

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PITCHER

Aaron Nola, PHI at MIA ($8,900): Nola has gotten off to a great start in 2018, giving up three earned runs or less in all six of his starts. The Marlins continue to have the worst wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitching in the league, making this a solid matchup for Nola. On top of that, Miami's lineup is mostly made up of right-handed hitters, and Nola gave up only a .270 wOBA to that handedness last year, much better than his .312 wOBA against lefties. Over 68 plate appearances, the Marlins only have a .550 OPS against Nola.

GPP Fade: James Paxton, SEA vs. OAK ($8,800): Paxton has a ton of strikeout potential but typically runs up his pitch count and never goes deep into games. That potentially takes out the QS bonus, and his worst splits last season were at home against right-handed hitters. Oakland has a lineup full of bats that crush left-handed pitching, and as a team they're tied for the seventh-highest wOBA in the league against southpaws with a .336 mark. In 16.2 innings (three starts) against Oakland last season Paxton had a 5.40 ERA.

Cheap GPP Consideration: Dallas Keuchel, HOU vs. NYY ($8,500): While he's not exactly "cheap," it's worth noting that he's the eighth-highest priced pitcher on a slate where there's only 16 pitchers. The Yankees will make most shy away from using Keuchel, and it's easy to forget the overall success he's had at home posting a career .277 wOBA. In addition, he's had anywhere from a respectable 20.9-28.0 percent strikeout rate at home over the last three seasons, while the Yankees have a 25.4 percent strikeout rate on the road (seventh highest in baseball) and that goes up to 30.4 percent when facing a lefty.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

Wilmer Flores, NYM vs. ATL ($2,200): Flores hit a bit of a rough patch on the road recently, finishing up the Mets' road trip going 3-for-19 (.158). The good news is he showed good patience at the plate, finishing with three walks and only one strikeout over that span. And he has a great matchup against lefty Sean Newcomb. Flores has killed left-handed pitching over the last three seasons with wOBAs of .351, .455 and .401.

SECOND BASE

Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM vs. ATL ($3,900): Second base is a complete mess, with no clear-cut options that seem sure to be worth their price. Like Flores, Cabrera has crushed left-handed pitching, putting up .407 and .356 wOBAs over the last two seasons, which leaves this season's .393 mark right in line. Newcomb gave up a .337 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season and Cabrera should find himself hitting in a top-four spot in the lineup.

THIRD BASE

Eugenio Suarez, CIN vs. MIL ($3,600): There aren't many cheap options at the hot corner, so it makes a ton of sense to spend only a little at the position. Suarez has a great righty-vs-lefty matchup against Wade Miley, and he's steadily improved since 2015 against southpaws, posting wOBAs of .354, .374, .383 and now .423 this season. Suarez comes into the game swinging a hot bat as well, scoring 28.7, 23, 19 and 24.9 fantasy points in four of his last five games.

SHORTSTOP

Scott Kingery, PHI at MIA ($2,800): Kingery is off to a bad start this season, but the injury to J.P. Crawford should get him regular playing time over the next couple of weeks. Despite a .213 batting average, his two home runs and three stolen bases prorate to good fantasy numbers over the course of a full season for a middle infielder. Jose Urena's 4.56 xFIP suggests he's nothing special; just make sure Kingery is in the lineup after he left Tuesday's game early with a bone bruise.

OUTFIELD

Mitch Haniger, SEA vs. OAK ($4,000): Obviously, Haniger isn't cheap, and there's a good reason why. He's raked to start the season with 10 home runs and a .309 batting average as well. While he's expensive, it's worth noting he averages only 0.2 fantasy points per game fewer than Mike Trout but comes with a $1,400 discount. Brett Anderson has become a shadow of the younger A's version of himself due to injuries, and he got lit up in the 66.2 innings he pitched over the last two years.

Adam Duvall, CIN vs. MIL ($2,800): Duvall has had his ups and downs this season at the plate but this should be one of his "up" nights. Miley has had an ERA north of 5.00 in each of the last two seasons and his bad splits against right-handed hitters are a big reason why, sporting a .374 and .360 wOBA against righties in 2016 and 2017, while Duvall had a .382 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season.

UTILITY

Jesus Aguilar, MIL at CIN ($2,600): The Brewers are going to have a hard time justifying playing Domingo Santana over Aguilar given the way both have started this season. It's a good night to stack Brewers' lefties against Luis Castillo, who in a small sample has given up a .466 wOBA to opposite-handed hitters this season. After posting a .338 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season, Aguilar has carried that over with a .370 wOBA, including a home run Tuesday.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Kevin Payne plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: Fanduel: kevinccp, Draft Kings: kevinccp, Yahoo: kevinccp.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin Payne
Kevin has worked for RotoWire over a decade and has covered basketball, baseball and football. A glutton for punishment, he roots for his hometown Bills, Sabres and the New York Yankees. You can follow him on Twitter @KCPayne26.
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