Articles by Peter Schoenke

Peter Schoenke is the president and co-founder of RotoWire.com. He's been elected to the hall of fame for both the Fantasy Sports Trade Association and Fantasy Sports Writers Association and also won the Best Fantasy Baseball Article on the Internet in 2005 from the FSWA. He roots for for the Minnesota Twins, Vikings and T-Wolves.

Never Draft A Kicker Unless Forced To

If you don’t have to draft a kicker at this point of the preseason – don’t.

The default format for Yahoo! Fantasy Football and many other leagues allow you to leave your draft without selecting a kicker. You don’t need to leave the draft with a full starting roster. You do need to pick up a kicker before Week 1 as you’d take a zero if you left that starting slot blank. Is it worth it to skip taking a kicker for an extra reserve you may just cut between now and Week 1?

I think the answer is yes. Here’s the case for not taking a kicker.

First, kickers are almost random. The fantasy football community does a poor job of predicting who will be a top kicker. Since 2006, kickers taken in the top 125 overall of ADP haven’t finished in the top 12 at the end of the season in fantasy points by a whopping 71 percent of the time (10 of 14). And those are kickers that fantasy owners were excited enough to take in the first 11 rounds of a 12-team draft.

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Fantasy Football Draft Logistics Advice

(The following article appears in “101 Fantasy Football Tips” e-book from 50+ Fantasy Writers, a .pdf/E-Book available here)

What’s the best way to conduct a fantasy football draft or auction? Here’s some advice and tips from someone who’s in 30+ fantasy drafts/auctions per year.

First, it’s always the most convenient to just hold your draft/auction with the service that hosts your league such as ESPN, Yahoo! Sports, FoxSports, CBSSports.com, NFL.com, Fantrax.com and MyFantasyLeague.com – just to name a few. Most of the services now offer auction capability as well and support for keepers.

The upside here is clear: You draft in the same environment where you run your league and the commissioner of the league doesn’t have to go through the pain of re-entering rosters. Even if your league has traditionally drafted in person, the time savings in an online draft room spread out over 200+ draft picks can add up in a hurry. Plus if your league has some members who come unprepared or don’t even know the NFL players, they have a ready list of options or can choose to autodraft.

I’m also in several leagues that use the slick auction or draft rooms of the major providers, but hand enter the results into another commissioner service that can accommodate all that league’s idiosyncratic rules.

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Let’s Kill The Monday Deadline

It’s midseason in fantasy baseball and I’m already worn out and tired of Sunday evenings.

Maybe I’m in the minority since I essentially play fantasy baseball for a living, but the grind of doing free agent bids for multiple leagues on Sunday nights gets old.

Usually I’m outside as much as possible on a nice summer weekend but have the constant thought that I must get on my computer midday Sunday to ensure I get some bids in.

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My $75K Winning RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Online Championship Draft

Last Thursday (Mar. 13) I had the privilege of drafting with 11 other owners in a RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Online Championship League that we’re running in conjunction with our friends at the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. You can win a $75,000 overall prize along with winning a $1,400 league prize. For this league it’s also a “beat the RotoWire expert” league and the winners get a three-month rotowire subscription if they place higher than me in the standings. Last year that was easy pickings as I finished last in my league. I did win my football league in the same contest (NFFC), so I’m batting .500.

It’s a 12-team, 5×5 mixed league that’s pretty standard. The one exception is that in this contest there’s no trading. That makes loading up on one category very risky. Last year my downfall was too many light hitters who could steal and not enough balance. I also didn’t draft enough starting pitching and struggled to find starters on the waiver wire. So those were two areas I wanted to improve. I had the seventh draft slot. Let’s see if I did it:

1.7 – Carlos Gonzalez (COL) OF – I had hoped for Clayton Kershaw and then Bryrce Harper with this pick. I went with Cargo over Jacoby Ellsbury (who is higher on the RotoWire draft software rankings) because I think I can find speed in this format in later rounds and because I thought there was a greater (if very small) chance Ellsbury could come around to me in the second round. Kershaw went 1.4, Ryan Braun went 1.8 and Prince Fielder went 1.10. The first round otherwise had no real surprises.

2.6 – Yu Darvish (TEX) P – This was probably an aggressive pick but I wanted to attack starting pitching and strikeouts in particular in this format. Darvish may have the most upside for strikeouts. I’m usually a wait-on-pitching kind of guy, so this pick will have consequences later. At this point in the draft I considered Edwin Encarcion, David Wright, Giancarlo Stanton, Evan Longoria, Stephen Strasburg and concluded any of them could be around to me in the next round so I may as well take Darvish, who I was pretty sure wouldn’t be around.

3.7 – Cliff Lee (PHI) P – I was likely going to take Stanton with this pick and was right he would likely be there in the third round, but he was taken one pick before mine. I decided to double up on top-line starters with Lee as a result. I could maybe have waited until the fourth round on Chris Sale or Felix Hernandez, but decide to take the NL pitcher in Lee.

4.6 – Joe Mauer (MIN) C – Another aggressive move and/or over-reach. His ADP in the NFBC leagues is 61.88, so I’m about 5-10 picks higher. I’m high on Mauer this year because he’s going to post a career high in at-bats since he’s playing first base. Mauer always hits for average when healthy, but health has been the issue. If he’s not behind the plate, my guess is he’ll stay injury free. And having a .325+ BAVG from your catcher gives you a solid foundation to take batting average risks later.

5.7– David Ortiz (BOS) DH – His ADP in the NFBC is 78, so I’m about two rounds early. But I needed the power after my first four picks. I also tied up my utility spot early in the draft.

6.6 – Billy Hamilton (CIN) OF – Here’s the riskiest pick in the draft. He has an ADP of about 70, so this is a slight value. But this pick will dictate the rest of my draft. Some of my thinking is this: if Hamilton does stick in the majors and has 75-100 steals, the overall winner of this contest is likely to have him on his (or her) roster. I want a piece of that chance. Even a 40-75 SB season would make my team set for stolen bases. But now I’m handcuffed into avoiding steals guys the rest of the way.

7.7 – Yoenis Cespedes (OAK) OF – An upside play, especially for power. Hopefully my pick of Mauer can help offset some of these batting average risks.

8.6 – Alex Gordon (KC) OF – I’ve never been a Gordon fan, but I need players productive in the non-SB categories and he was the best on the board. I also needed a 3B at this point and both Pedro Alvarez and Ryan Zimmerman were on the board, so I figured one might slip to the next round.

9.7 – Kyle Seager (SEA) 3B – Both third baseman I was eyeing went before this pick, so I took Seager. His numbers have improved each year in the majors and he could take a leap in his third full season at age 26.

10.6 – Aaron Hill (AZ) 2B – My middle infield is severely lacking at this point, so I took a rebound candidate in Hill who can also provide me some needed power. Since I took Hamilton, the speedy, light-hitting middle infield types don’t fit. I really wanted Jedd Gyorko, but he went the pick before as I think he has more upside despite his park.

11.7 – Andrelton Simmons (ATL) SS – Simmons hit 17 home runs last year and is just 24. I need power not speed from my middle infielders, so this fits.

12.6 – Jonathan Papelbon (PHI) P – I hate the closer pool this year. There’s going to be tons of turnover. The question is in a leauge like this with deep benches and active owners, can you really wait on saves? I skipped all the big names. I’m not high on Papelbon, but I figure his contract and track record gives him job security.

13.7 – Brandon Moss (OAK) 1B – Another low-BAVG power hitter I took a risk on. RotoWire’s projection for him is much higher than most. He did hit 30 home runs last year and .291 the year before.

14.6 – Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) P – I’m gambling that he comes back from injury sooner than expected. If so, this is a great value. He has a hand injury and isn’t trying to pitch through it (which could cause injuries where he’s compensating elsewhere), so I think the chances are good he’s back to full speed when the hand is ready.

15.7 – Brian Dozier (MIN) 2B – This is the pick I liked the least. I wanted power from my middle infield and Dozier can provide it. But I really wanted to take either Nolan Arenado or Aramis Ramirez with this pick for my second corner spot and figured I could wait. Both went in the next round. Looking back I’d rather have Arenando’s upside.

16.6 – Jeff Samardzija (CHC) P – He’s a good bounceback candidate and could still produce 200+ strikeouts even if he produces another 4.00+ ERA. He didn’t lose any velocity last year and all his other peripherals were similar to 2012.

17.7 – Justin Morneau (COL) 1B – I don’t think Morneau is coming back to the MVP player he was, more so due to the wrist injuries that sapped his power than his concussion issues, but I need a first baseman and his home park can cover many flaws.

18.6 – Neftali Feliz (TEX) P – I’m searching for saves on the cheap now and hope to land Joakim Soria later in the draft to secure the Texas closer role.

19.7 – Yovani Gallardo (MIL) P – I think he’s a great bounceback candidate. Pitching in the World Baseball Classic may have got him off track and he was hurt in August. His strikeout rate and other numbers are just such an outlier with the rest of his body of work. He’s just 28, so it’s not like he’s getting old.

20.6 – Joakim Soria (TEX) P – I took him about 60 spots higher than his ADP, but I wanted to lock up the Texas closer situation. Of course they’ll do closer-by-committee now.

21.7 – Dan Straily (OAK) P – Good home ballpark. Had a 11.2 K/9 at Triple-A. That didn’t show up in the majors (7.3 K/9), so this is a gamble he’ll develop into more of a strikeout pitcher.

22.6 – Corey Hart (SEA) OF – I’m fishing for power at this point. Can his knee stay healthy? Will the new home ballpark hurt him? Who knows, but not many players left who’ve hit 30 home runs in recent memory at this point.

23.7 – Adam LaRoche (WAS) 1B – Another shot at power. He hit 33 home runs in 2012, so there’s some upside. One of Hart or LaRoche hopefully fills my 1B slot.

24.6 – Marcell Ozuna (MIA) OF – He’s just 23 and hit for power in the minors, so hopefully he can win a starting job and improve upon his rookie season.

24.7 – Yasmani Grandal (SD) C – This was probably my weakest pick in the draft. I waited on my second catcher forever. I had hoped to land Welington Castillo late, but I waited too long. Grandal can hit, if he wins the starting job. And his home park hurts him. I could be fishing for catchers on the waiver wire all season.

25.6 – Brandon Beachy (ATL) P – At the time I was high on his second full season back from Tommy John surgery. Oops. He was out for the year the next day. At least I can cut him early.

26.7 – Alex Guerrero (LAD) 2B – Who knows what to make of a Cuban defector. But I have visions of drafting and later dropping Yasiel Puig in multiple leagues last year. This is the kind of league where you want to roll the dice on a total wild card. I didn’t take another backup infielder, so I may have to get lucky in free agency.

27.6 – Erasmo Ramirez (SEA) P – He throws fairly hard (avg. 92.2 mph fastball) and could win a spot in a rotation with a good home park. I’m gambling for strikeouts.

28.7 – Chad Qualls (HOU) P – Who knows if he can win the closer role or even last more than a week if he wins the job.

29.6 – Josh Willingham (MIN) OF – He’s a bounceback candidate after last year’s injury-plagued season. This is another gamble for power. He’s an easy drop if he starts slow.

After all that here’s my final roster:

C Yasmani Grandal

C Joe Mauer

1B Justin Morneau

2B Brian Dozier

SS Andrelton Simmons

3B Kyle Seager

OF YoenisCespedes

OF Carlos Gonzalez

OF Alex Gordon

OF Billy Hamilton

OF Brandon Moss

CR Adam LaRoche 

UT David Ortiz

P Yu Darvish

P Cliff Lee

P Yovani Gollardo

P Hisashi Iwakuma

P Jonathan Papelbon

P Jeff Samardzija

P Joakim Soria

P Dan Straily

R Alex Guerrero

R Corey Hart

R Marcel Ozuna

R Josh Willingham

R Chad Qualls

R Erasmo Ramirez

R Brandon Beachy

So is this a $75,000 roster?

A Historically Bad Year For Fantasy Running Backs?

The running back carnage this year is bad. But how bad? Is this something we should plan for in the future?

Scanning the Twitterverse this last week, I was struck by this comment:

My first take was that this year’s first-round running back busts are pretty typical of history. I was right .. and wrong. Let’s look at the history of running backs taken in the first round of average draft position (ADP) since 1998 (data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com)

Rbs in top 15 Busts Outside top 50
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2012″>2012 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”8″>8 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”1″>1 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”3″>3
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2011″>2011 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”10″>10 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2″>2 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2″>2
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2010″>2010 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”10″>10 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2″>2 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2″>2
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2009″>2009 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”10″>10 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”1″>1 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”4″>4
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2008″>2008 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”9″>9 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”1″>1 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”1″>1
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2007″>2007 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”12″>12 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”4″>4 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”4″>4
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2006″>2006 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”12″>12 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”3″>3 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”5″>5
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2005″>2005 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”11″>11 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2″>2 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”3″>3
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2004″>2004 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”10″>10 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”0″>0 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”1″>1
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2003″>2003 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”10″>10 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”0″>0 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”0″>0
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2002″>2002 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”7″>7 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”0″>0 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”1″>1
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2001″>2001 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”8″>8 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”1″>1 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2″>2
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2000″>2000 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”8″>8 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”1″>1 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”1″>1
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”1999″>1999 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”7″>7 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2″>2 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”2″>2
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”1998″>1998 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”8″>8 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”0″>0 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”0″>0
QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”140″>140 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”20″>20 QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”31″>31
Avg QQ| sdnum=”1033;” sdval=”10″>10 QQ| sdnum=”1033;0;0.0″ sdval=”1.42857142857143″>1.4 QQ| sdnum=”1033;0;0.0″ sdval=”2.21428571428571″>2.2

As of Week 13, this season is set to be historically bad for running backs. In the first 15 picks of drafts that took place after Aug. 15 (a good approximation for the first round to include most 12-14 team leagues), there were ten running backs. It looks like there will be five “busts” – Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, CJ Spiller and Trent Richardson.

However, the final numbers may not be so bad. Believe it or not, but Ray Rice and C.J. Spiller are just 5-10 fantasy points away from entering the top 24 at the running position. I know that doesn’t seem like much, but that would give them positive VBD (value based drafting, which is fantasy points above replacement) as they’d finish the season as players you’d still start in a 12-man league, assuming you’d start at least 2 running backs. That’s a low bar to clear, but if you want a higher bar check out the rankings in the above chart for running backs who were taken in the first round and failed to finish outside the top 50 in overall fantasy VBD. By those standards, this would also be an equally poor season if it ended today (and many fantasy leagues have their regular season end in Week 13), as there would also be five running backs who finish outside the top 50 in fantasy value. And Rice and Spiller appear to have little chance to rally and enter the top 50 in overall value as measured by VBD.

While 2013 has been a big year for first-round, running back busts, it’s not that extreme. We’ve seen four or five running backs taken in the first round finish out side the top 50. It would be the highest percentage wise with almost 50 percent being busts. It’s not crazy off the charts.

What is crazy off the charts is the number of first-round running back busts that are not due to injury. The last running back who was a first-round bust not due to injury was Cadillac Williams in 2006 (h/t to Michael Salfino. Check out his story on this subject at WSJ.com.) This year Richardson, Rice and Spiller (despite his ankle injury, he’s missed just one game … so this may qualify) may be busts without a major injury. So the extreme nature of this year’s first-round running back busts may be a fluke from that factor.

Never Draft A Kicker In Yahoo! Fantasy Football

The default format for Yahoo! Fantasy Football allows you to leave your draft without drafting a kicker. You don’t need to leave the draft with a full roster. You do need to pick up a kicker before the season as you’d take a zero if you left that slot blank. Is it worth it to skip taking a kicker for an extra reserve you may just cut between now and Week 1?

I think the answer is yes. Here’s the case for not taking a kicker.

First, kickers are almost random. The fantasy football community does a poor job of predicting who will be a top kicker.
Since 1998, kickers taken in the top 125 overall of ADP haven’t finished in the top 12 at the end of the season in fantasy points by a whopping 61 percent of the time (35 of 57). And those are kickers that fantasy owners were excited enough to take in the first 11 rounds of a 12-team draft.

It gets even worse when you look at all the kickers taken in an average draft. In a 12-team league that starts 9 players (QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, K, DEF) and has an eight person bench (a roster of 16), there are 192 draft selections. Kickers since 1998 taken in the top 192 overall of ADP have finished outside the top 12 at their position 75 percent of the time. So you have a 25 percent chance that your kicker is going to be someone better than freely available on the waiver wire.

Meanwhile, a considerable amount of players that end up with significant fantasy value end up undrafted.
Just look at the last three years at the number of players that finished in the top 192 in VBD (so ranked against their position) that were undrafted or taken outside the top 192 picks.

2010 – 85 players (including No .1 in overall value/VBD, Arian Foster; and 3 of the top 10 in VBD)
2011 – 77 players  (including No. 9 in overall value/VBD, Cam Newton)
2012 – 75 players  (including No. 5 in overall value/VBD, Alfred Morris)

So on average over the past three years, you had a 41 percent chance that an undrafted player would finish the season in the top 192. Of course, it’s not that easy since there are a lot of undrafted players. But I’d assume that most of those undrafted players who finish in the top 192 were on the cusp of being drafted. They’re backups, rookies and players who a team couldn’t find a roster spot in the preseason.

And it’s not clear when those undrafted players accumulated their value according to my study. Maybe it was after a starter got hurt in Week 7.

But the overall trend here is pretty clear. The odds are the kicker you take, especially if you take one lower in the rankings, is highly likely to not finish in the top 12 among kickers. You’ll probably be dropping him at some point. At the same time there’s a significant chance that some undrafted player will become a top 192 player.

Why not take the free option on a reserve and pick up your kicker based on who’s available in free agency?

The Recent Trend Of Top QB Good Health

I’m a card carrying member of the "wait on the quarterback" club, but even I have noticed the change that’s taken place at the top of the quarterback crop in recent years. It used to be that taking a QB early in a fantasy football draft was a bad idea because quarterbacks got hurt so often. But with recent rule changes – or maybe a recent string of good luck – the top quarterbacks are no longer getting hurt at high rates.

From 1998 to 2007, a quarterback that was picked in the top 50 overall in average draft position (ADP) had a 37 percent chance of ending up a bust. There were 72 quarterbacks in that period taken in the top 50 of ADP. Of those, 27 didn’t finish in the top 12 at QB in fantasy points by the end of the season (which I define as a bust since you could have perhaps found a better QB on the waiver wire). Of those 27, 23 were due in some part to an injury and the other four lost their job due to poor performance.

Historically quarterbacks are busts at very high rates – the highest of any of the main fantasy positions (QB, RB, TE, WR):

POS ADP Total VBD Avg. VBD Players Bust Bust Percentage
Qb Top 5 QQ|>-62.9 QQ|>-12.58 QQ|>5 QQ|>2 QQ|>.40
QB Top 15 QQ|>1,531 QQ|>46.39 QQ|>33 QQ|>7 QQ|>.21
QB Top 25 QQ|>2,373 QQ|>44.78 QQ|>53 QQ|>12 QQ|>.23
QB Top 50 QQ|>1,649 QQ|>15.85 QQ|>104 QQ|>35 QQ|>.34
QB Top 75 QQ|>1,531 QQ|>9.34 QQ|>164 QQ|>61 QQ|>.37
WR Top 5 QQ|>0 QQ|>0.00 QQ|>0 QQ|>0 QQ|>.00
WR Top 15 QQ|>1,930 QQ|>68.92 QQ|>28 QQ|>2 QQ|>.07
WR Top 25 QQ|>4,361 QQ|>55.20 QQ|>79 QQ|>10 QQ|>.13
WR Top 50 QQ|>7,158 QQ|>31.26 QQ|>229 QQ|>62 QQ|>.27
WR Top 75 QQ|>8,073 QQ|>21.36 QQ|>378 QQ|>134 QQ|>.35
RB Top 5 QQ|>4,884 QQ|>113.57 QQ|>43 QQ|>4 QQ|>.09
RB Top 15 QQ|>11,687 QQ|>90.59 QQ|>129 QQ|>19 QQ|>.15
RB Top 25 QQ|>15,656 QQ|>81.54 QQ|>192 QQ|>32 QQ|>.17
RB Top 50 QQ|>19,910 QQ|>66.59 QQ|>299 QQ|>62 QQ|>.21
RB Top 75 QQ|>21,433 QQ|>53.32 QQ|>402 QQ|>107 QQ|>.27
TE Top 15 QQ|>0 QQ|>0.00 QQ|>0 QQ|>0 QQ|>.00
TE Top 50 QQ|>839 QQ|>41.95 QQ|>20 QQ|>4 QQ|>.20
TE Top 75 QQ|>1,198 QQ|>19.97 QQ|>60 QQ|>19 QQ|>.32
K Top 125 QQ|>-274 QQ|>-4.81 QQ|>57 QQ|>35 QQ|>.61

But look what’s happened since 2008. Quarterbacks that are the consensus best in the league – at least according to ADP – are staying healthy and productive. Since 2008, just  19 percent  of quarterbacks (6 of 31) taken in the top 50 of ADP have turned into busts. And Just four were busts due to injury (which may be harder to forecast).

Is this just a fluke of a smaller sample size? Is it just that Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have been very healthy (other than the two missed seasons from Brady and Manning). Have the recent rule changes making it harder to hit a QB had a big impact?

Here’s the impressive list:

Season Player ADP Final Position Rank
2008 Tom Brady QB QQ|>5.94 QQ|>60 knee injury
2008 Peyton Manning QB QQ|>11.98 QQ|>6
2008 Tony Romo QB QQ|>15.3 QQ|>9
2008 Drew Brees QB QQ|>21.25 QQ|>1
2008 Carson Palmer QB QQ|>33.88 QQ|>41 elbow injury
2008 Ben Roethlisberger QB QQ|>37.2 QQ|>18 poor performance
2009 Drew Brees QB QQ|>11.2 QQ|>7
2009 Tom Brady QB QQ|>13.66 QQ|>14
2009 Peyton Manning QB QQ|>19.03 QQ|>4
2009 Aaron Rodgers QB QQ|>26.57 QQ|>1
2009 Philip Rivers QB QQ|>31.88 QQ|>7
2009 Kurt Warner QB QQ|>40.96 QQ|>13 concussion
2009 Tony Romo QB QQ|>42.16 QQ|>6
2010 Aaron Rodgers QB QQ|>9.55 QQ|>2
2010 Drew Brees QB QQ|>11.84 QQ|>6
2010 Peyton Manning QB QQ|>21.74 QQ|>4
2010 Tom Brady QB QQ|>34.44 QQ|>9
2010 Tony Romo QB QQ|>40.83 QQ|>30 broken collarbone
2010 Philip Rivers QB QQ|>41.48 QQ|>5
2010 Matt Schaub QB QQ|>45.38 QQ|>10
2011 Michael Vick QB QQ|>8.19 QQ|>11
2011 Aaron Rodgers QB QQ|>10.36 QQ|>1
2011 Drew Brees QB QQ|>22.41 QQ|>2
2011 Tom Brady QB QQ|>30.94 QQ|>3
2011 Philip Rivers QB QQ|>35.3 QQ|>9
2012 Aaron Rodgers QB QQ|>4 QQ|>2
2012 Tom Brady QB QQ|>8 QQ|>3
2012 Drew Brees QB QQ|>12 QQ|>1
2012 Matthew Stafford QB QQ|>14 QQ|>11
2012 Cam Newton QB QQ|>16 QQ|>4

Does this change your thinking about quarterback?  I still think the depth at the position means you should wait on a quarterback. And 2013 may feature the deepest quarterback group ever, so I’m not afraid to wait on a QB until crazy late (I took Jay Cutler as my first QB in the 11th round in a 16-team league last month).

However, this data may indicate that if you are in a two-QB league – or a league with a QB in the flex – it may not be a bad idea to invest in two top-tier QBs. After all, the recent trend shows they hold value.