Yahoo DFS Football: Week 4 Picks

Yahoo DFS Football: Week 4 Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

Before jumping headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football, be sure to differentiate from the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet to cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily-targeted number one WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries and upper echelon QBs in match-ups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.

Tournaments / Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian – target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places – the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Though previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats.

Note: The Main slate does not include the Colts vs. Jaguars game in London.

TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)

Trevor Siemian (DEN, $26)

Human nature leads us to over-accentuate previous weeks' results. This may be the case with Siemian in Week 4, coming off a monster four-touchdown performance against the Bengals. What brings us back to Siemian this week is mostly price. Cheap values around the $10 mark are harder to find at this point in the season, and many of the big boys at QB are now priced in the high 30's. It's very unlikely Siemian matches last week's 28.98 fantasy points, but if the Broncos are going to beat the Bucs this week, it's going to be through the air. The Bucs' secondary is a leaky unit that has allowed seven touchdowns (while nabbing just one interception) through the first three games. Their run-stoppers are allowing only 3.5 yards per carry and allowed just 3.4 YPC last season. If you're looking to spend down at quarterback this week, Siemian appears to stand out in a group of underperformers and second-string signal callers who have tough matchups.

Matt Jones (WAS, $19)

This play is all about perceived game flow. The Redskins are one of this week's Survivor favorite, working with a spread that lies between 7.5 and 8.5, depending on where you're looking. Sure, the Browns have been more susceptible to aerial attacks through the first three weeks but the truth is, they are a wretched defense all around. Since most of the running back cream has risen to the top salary-wise, there are very few names below the 20 dollar mark who are worthy of our attention. Jones may fly under the radar because he doesn't catch many passes (just five so far) and hasn't had a game that's left an impression on us yet this season. Looking healthier and a tad more spry, Jones' carries have trended upwards (from seven to 13 to 17) and he might be in for a big day against the Browns on Sunday. Much of our weekly puzzle depends on finding affordable options in positions that could pay off. A healthy home favorite against the Browns seems to be just that.

DeAndre Hopkins (HOU, $35)

Hopkins might be under-owned again this week for a few reasons. The Texans have other viable options than just him (Lamar Miller and Will Fuller) and Hopkins is priced in a spot where most will likely just pay up for Antonio Brown (PIT, $40) or drop down to safer guys in the $25 - $32 range. The primary reason he may go under-owned is that he's playing in a game with the lowest projected point total (40.5) of the week. We need to find spots to differentiate in large-field tournaments, and there's no better place to splurge than with an overlooked Hopkins. He is tied for 15th in targets, already has a 100-plus yard game under his belt, and has found the end zone in two of three games thus far. Of course last year's performances shouldn't factor much into this year's projections, but Hopkins did amass 211 yards and two touchdowns in his two games against the Titans last year. The previous season, he dropped a 238-yard, two-touchdown game on them, so you could say he has history on his side. Hopkins is worth a few shots if you're throwing multiple entries out in the $200K Baller this week. Hop to it.

Other Against-the-Grainers

QB: Brian Hoyer (CHI, $23) – if Jay Cutler is out
RB: Lamar Miller (HOU, $33), DeAndre Washington (OAK, $10)
WR: Julio Jones (ATL, $38), John Brown (ARI, $14), Kevin White (CHI, $13)
TE: Eric Ebron (DET, $18), Zach Miller (CHI, $16)
DEF: New York Giants ($13)

CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)

Quarterback

Philip Rivers (SD, $37)

Here we are again. Rivers was in prime position in last week's most popular matchup but failed to live up to the cash game hype, failing to convert for a touchdown pass on any of his 26 completions. A Week 4 tilt against a porous Saints' defense looks too good to be true again. It might be, but I'm still looking for Rivers to put up a big game in Week 4's highest projected point total (53.5), especially coming off that disappointing start. Despite the loss of Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen, there's still something dangerous about this Chargers team early on in the season. Not to mention, since 2010, the Chargers have a 12-2 record at home if you count only the first four games of the regular season over those years. With this game projected to be a barn-burner, we shouldn't be too worried about rolling with Rivers, plus one of his receivers and their bell cow back, Melvin Gordon. It's a great spot that we really shouldn't overthink.

Running Backs

Le'Veon Bell (PIT, $31)

Finally, the long-awaited return of one of the league's most fearsome and valuable players. Coach Mike Tomlin doesn't plan to limit Bell and will be unleashing him on the Chiefs in his usual workhorse role. Bell is apparently in tip-top shape and ready to contribute immediately. Still, it's a tough spot for those deciding between Bell and Melvin Gordon (who is just one dollar cheaper), though it's certainly possible to make both fit. I voiced my concerns to Twitter on Tuesday night about DeAngelo Williams stealing 30 percent of the carries this Sunday. I received many spirited responses and reminders of Bell's workload takeover in this spot last year. It makes me more comfortable about Bell for cash and that perhaps I could be taking the contrarian stance too far. What it will come down to for Bell this week is making the most of his carries in what could be a sneakily high-scoring affair. To exceed value, we'd like to get at least 20 FP from him with a line like this – 125 total yards, three catches and a touchdown – a very likely outcome. I have no issues rocking the Bell-Gordon combo in cash and just working around it.

Jordan Howard (CHI, $14)

With Jeremy Langford down and out for now, the Howard era is upon us. Howard is a fifth round rookie out of Indiana (and UAB) who never failed to hit at least 145 yards rushing in college. Howard isn't fast (4.59 forty time at his pro day) but is a decisive runner who knows how to find holes. He is one of the only backs near minimum price who can surpass 15 carries and catch a few balls this week. Last week, Howard made the most of his nine carries, running at a 5.0 YPC clip and catching four balls for a total of 83 yards from scrimmage. Getting Howard in as our RB2 (or even flex) gives us plenty of flexibility to work in some of our targets from Chargers-Saints and some of the other games on our radar.

Wide Receivers

Marvin Jones (DET, $27)

Marvin Jones, American Hero. Jones is the talk of fantasy town following his immaculate 205-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Sam Shields-less Packers last week, including a 73-yard catch and run TD. Jones has clearly separated himself from fellow wideout Golden Tate as quarterback Matthew Stafford' top option in the Lions' offense. Jones is underpriced on Yahoo DFS this week and will be rightfully popular. He is getting love as a top-five WR option this week in season-long leagues as well. Fading Jones in cash games takes some brass huevos, and can only be done at one's own peril.

Jamison Crowder (WAS, $19)

Crowder is quickly establishing himself as an important cog in the Kirk Cousins-led offense. Tied for the league lead (with Jordy Nelson) in red zone targets with eight, Crowder has seen his price soar up to $19 in Week 4. He is up there among the league leaders with 25 targets through three games and his hit paydirt in each of his last two. The only problem with this juicy matchup at home against the Browns is that tight end Jordan Reed feels long overdue for a big game, Matt Jones will get goal line work and we can't forget about deep threat DeSean Jackson. Nevertheless, it's quite obvious Cousins and Crowder have a great rapport and that Crowder is a shifty route runner who is good at getting separation. With very little to grab a hold of under the $20 mark, we can surely do worse than Crowder in cash.

Terrelle Pryor (CLE, $17)

Pryor had a monster game against the Dolphins last week, and we should have been all over it. The reason being, the Browns were heavy underdogs, and if we were to expect them to try to catch up, throwing to Pryor would be the only way. But Pryor went above and beyond, catching eight of 14 targets for 144 yards, scoring a rushing touchdown and adding a few fantasy points with his arm. All in all, 27.9 fantasy points in the game, third in the league last week behind Marvin Jones and Emmanuel Sanders. The Browns are underdogs again this week, but his fantasy cover is blown. We avoid chasing previous weeks' stats, but sometimes matchups and situations are too good to be true. Pryor may have to battle with cornerback freak Josh Norman, but Pryor's multi-dimensionality can help him provide us with fantasy points in a myriad of ways. Josh Gordon is back in the mix next week, so we have one more chance to safely roster the Cleveland Pryors.

Tight End

Hunter Henry (SD, $10)

Henry will be a popular waiver wire addition after a solid NFL debut for the Chargers last week. The big-bodied (6-foot-5, 250 lbs) rookie tight end caught all five of his targets against the Colts last week for 76 yards. He steps in once more for the aging and injured Antonio Gates to do his part in the high-flying, 53.5-point projected affair with the Saints in Week 4. Henry appears to fit in well, and has been gifted by the coordination gods; just two drops on 90 catchable passes over his last two college seasons. The main negative from his scouting report (below-average line blocker) is a benefit for us in fantasy, and especially here in DFS as he'll likely see more looks from Rivers his way. Though I'd expect some productive performances from Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen this week, those two really cost a pretty penny. If you're in need for some cap space and are looking to punt the tight end position, you're in luck, since Henry isn't an actual punt. Expect him to be involved heavily against the Saints on Sunday and perhaps cross the line for his first career touchdown.

Defense/Special Teams

Houston Texans ($16)

Yahoo has done a fantastic job pricing defenses over the last couple of weeks. There's no getting past defenses facing the Browns anymore – the Dolphins were $18 last week and the Redskins are priced at $17 again. Even though the top DST's (MIN, ARI, DEN, KC) are priced higher than before, it's still important to save those few much-needed dollars by paying up for good defenses in the right matchups. You know exactly what we're looking for: rock solid units with thieving cornerbacks, playing at home, against suspect quarterbacks and fumbling, inexperienced receivers. Oh, and in low projected totals with your DST's team as favorites. Well, you can check those boxes across the board because that's what you're getting with the Texans. The Texans defense did lose their leader and best player in J.J. Watt, but they still have one of the most formidable units in the league. If you want to go safer, I can't fault you for going with the Redskins, the Vikings on MNF, the Cardinals (hosting the Rams) or even the Broncos on the road. Watt's injury will likely keep the Texans DST's percentage rate down this week, which is quite fine by me. We're just one Jonathan Joseph pick-six off Marcus Mariota from you coming back here next week and saying, "Thank you Vlad".

Honorable Mentions

QB: Matthew Stafford (DET, $37)
RB: Melvin Gordon (SD, $30), Carlos Hyde (SF, $25)
WR: Odell Beckham, Jr (NYG, $35), Travis Benjamin (SD, $28), Julian Edelman (NE, $24)
TE: Greg Olsen (CAR, $24)
DEF: Denver Broncos ($17)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Vlad Sedler plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotogutguy, DraftKings: rotogut, Yahoo: V_Sedler.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Vlad Sedler
Vlad Sedler covers baseball and football for RotoWire. He is a veteran NFBC player and CDM Hall of Famer, winning the Football Super Challenge in 2013. A native Angeleno, Vlad loves the Dodgers and Kings and is quite possibly the world's only Packers/Raiders fan. You can follow him @RotoGut.
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