Blake Bortles, JAC at NE ($7,600): Tom Brady likely will be chalk after the Steelers made the Jaguars look vulnerable against the pass last week. However, Jacksonville was beaten on touchdowns that were perfectly thrown passes and its front four should get to Brady while dropping seven into pass coverage. Enter Bortles who has made up for some bad-throwing games by using his legs and now has at least 16 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. Half of those games in that span resulted in at least 23.6 fantasy points while Brady only has two of at least that score in his last eight games.
Dion Lewis, NE vs JAC ($7,700): It would make a lot of sense this weekend to figure out how to roster both Lewis and Leonard Fournette in cash games given that the teams who gave up the fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season were the Vikings and Eagles. Lewis has taken the lead role for the Patriots and should get the bulk of the work despite Rex Burkhead likely returning to the fold. The Patriots often work to take away the opponent's best player, and after last week that would be Fournette. Expect the Patriots to make Blake Bortles beat them and crowd the line to stop Fournette. As a result, saving $800 and taking Lewis seems like the better choice.
Rex Burkhead, NE vs JAC ($6,000): This is a pick best left for GPPs as it's tough to ascertain the value of Burkhead. Before he was injured he worked as the goal-line back for the Patriots, scoring in four consecutive games with five rushing touchdowns. Burkhead totaled six touchdowns in those games and proved to be a capable pass-catching running back as well, averaging four targets in his last seven games. Leave him alone in cash as Dion Lewis should remain the workhorse with James White and Burkhead mixing in throughout the game.
Adam Thielen, MIN at PHI ($7,400): It's never tough to recommend the top-priced player at any position, but Thielen should be a contrarian play in both cash and GPPs this week. Stefon Diggs had the big week last week that could put everyone on him. However, it's Thielen who averaged slightly more fantasy points per game this season than Diggs. Philadelphia will probably pay more attention to Diggs, and outside of New England the Eagles have given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Marqise Lee, JAC at NE ($6,100): Ok, so if Bortles is in play for a lineup, then Lee should be as well. He should still be considered the top wide receiver (provided he stays healthy) for the Jags and be targeted the most. Lee has not impressed lately, but midseason he was the guy on whom Bortles leaned. If the premise of the Patriots stopping the run plays out, don't worry about the cornerback Stephon Gilmore-on-Lee narrative.
Kyle Rudolph, MIN at PHI ($6,100): He comes in as the third-highest priced tight end this weekend even though he has a great matchup. The Eagles are the team this weekend who have given up the most fantasy points to tight ends, and the Vikings are a favorite despite being on the road at Philadelphia. Rudolph has five touchdowns in his last eight games and gets regularly targeted in the red zone.
Stephen Gostkowski, NE vs JAC ($5,000): Gostkowski is only the second-highest priced kicker this weekend and if the belief is there that the Jaguars pull off the upset, he could be in for a lot of work. When drives have stalled this season coach Bill Bellichick hasn't hesitated to go to Gostkowski, who has hit 37 of 40 field goals this season (92.5 percent).
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles ($4,900): Is it OK to bet against Nick Foles? If it is, here is the defense to take. The Vikings have scored double-digit fantasy points on defense in three of their last four games, and Foles recently has proven to be a turnover machine.