Frozen Fantasy: Is Sid Declining? Is the League?

Sidney Crosby's current point-per-game production is the lowest of his career. His plus-minus, while still positive, is barely in the black. And he's losing more face-offs than he's winning ... for the first time since his second season in the NHL.

Has Sid gotten old fast?

There's been a lot of debate about Sid's "disappointing" season. Sure, he has 64 points in 59 games -- that was still good enough to sit seventh in league scoring heading into play Friday night. But there are whispers that he has a lot of mileage on that 27-year-old body. And who really knows the true impact of all of those injuries?

This could be the first time he finishes outside of the league's top-three scorers over a regular, 82-game season.

The decline is real. But there's something else at play. And it's dramatic.

Scoring is down in a big way despite the league's best intentions. The NHL keeps tinkering with rule changes to open things up, but those tweaks aren't resulting in goals. Let's take a look.

In 2005-06, 23 players finished with more than 82 points. Rule changes that year were said to have opened things up -- the neutral zone shrunk, the red line was eliminated and goalie equipment shrunk. But it didn't take long for things to clog up. In only four short seasons (2009-10), just 14 players finished with at least 83 points. And by 2011-12, there were just five.

Last season, that number was four. And it could be the same this year, too.

Ouch.

I do think Sid is in decline. But I'm actually more concerned about the entire league. What's fuelling this decline? Smarter coaching? An increased emphasis on playing a possession game? Increased parity between players on the top and bottom lines? Better goaltending? A little bit of each?

I don't have an answer. But I do know this. Scorers are scoring less. And goalies are delivering better and better individual numbers with each and every passing year.

I'm going to think twice about overreaching for a so-called stud on draft day. Or pursuing one in a trade. Is there really that much of a difference between a guy who gets 84 points in a season than one who nets 73? And is Pekka Rinne really that much better than Cory Schneider? Or Brian Elliot?

Gulp. Fantasy hockey just gets harder and harder every season.

Now let's take a look at who caught my eye this week.

David Booth, LW, Toronto (0 percent Yahoo owned) - Wanted: cheap shots. Not cheapshots -- there's a difference. Booth has a goal and assist in his last two games, and they come on the back of shots, shots and more shots. He has 11 shots in three games this week, a remarkable feat considering his role on an absolutely abysmal team. He's a one-stat wonder -- don't bother if you need a multi-categorical boost. But he's dirt cheap if you need SOG.

Andrew Cogliano, LW/C, Anaheim (4 percent) - Anaheim's deadline deals have catapulted it to the top of the heap in the West. And those moves have allowed the Ducks to spread the scoring wealth across the entire top-nine. Cogliano will still deliver defensive coverage to the opposition's best forwards, but he also has a bit more freedom now to showcase his speed and skill. And that has delivered three points, including two goals, and a plus-four rating in the four games heading into Friday night. Not exactly spectacular, but better than most. And that's #valuable in deep leagues.

Dan Ellis, G, Florida (3 percent) - I watched Tuesday's goalie gong show happen live, and I have to say, I've never seen anything quite like it. I flipped open my Macbook and snagged Ellis the moment I saw Al Montoya clutching his crotch. No, Ellis won't be a savior for the Panthers or my struggling Friends and Family league team, for that matter. But damn it, I'm not about to let someone else have him. Sometimes blocking a buddy is better than winning. Taking the title shouldn't be easy for anyone. And who knows -- those kitties are a solid team. Ellis might just give me points.

Michael Frolik, RW/C, Winnipeg (12 percent) - I love him; he drives me nuts. I love him; he drives me nuts. Frolik runs hot and cold more than a preschooler playing with a new kitchen faucet. In fact, I think I've added him -- and dropped him -- about four times this season. Right now, he's on a five-game, five-point scoring streak, so it's back on my roster he goes. I'm sure I'll drop him again soon enough. And you might, too. But these streaks are usually worth it, especially within a thin waiver pool.

Matt Irwin, D, San Jose (1 percent) - Need a little offense from your back end? OK, not that kind of scoring. Seriously. Irwin's seven goals from the blue line tie him with studs like Duncan Keith, Niklas Kronwall and Johnny Boychuk (among others) -- heady company, indeed. He's big and he can move the puck. And he enters play this weekend on a four-game, four-point streak that includes two goals. His status for Saturday is up in the air after he tweaked an upper-body injury at practice Friday. So, I'm waiting one more day before I take the leap. It's not like owners are rushing to the wire to grab him.

Brandon Pirri, C, Florida (4 percent) - Panthers general manager Dale Tallon knows talent. His handiwork rebuilt the Blackhawks and won them a Cup (2010) before he moved to the Panthers. It was Tallon who drafted Pirri in Chicago, but the youngster got caught behind a truckload of talent down the middle. So Tallon snapped him up in a trade a year ago, and Pirri looks sharp with a kitty on his chest. He had four goals, including two on the power play, and 19 shots in four games heading into Friday. And that made him the second-best forward in standard Yahoo formats in the previous seven days. Yes, you read that right - he was second best in the entire NHL. He won't keep it up, but I picked him up anyway. His confidence is soaring and his skills are real. Offense should continue for a few more games, and it might as well count on my team instead of someone else's.

Jiri Sekac, LW, Anaheim (3 percent) - The admission came this week: Sekac himself acknowledged that picking Montreal as a landing spot in free agency didn't work out as planned. Sekac is smiling a lot more -- and producing a lot better -- now that he has been freed from the defensive chains of the bleu, blanc et rouge. His speed fits well on a skilled third line in the land of the Quack. And he has three assists in his last four games playing alongside Emerson Etem and Rickard Rakell. Anaheim's deadline deals, including this one, have put them at the head of the class in the West. Who else has a third line loaded with speed, skill and finesse? #outclassthecompetition. I'm taking a chance. He's a better play than a guy like Antoine Roussel ...

Alex Stalock, G, San Jose (9 percent) - I dropped this guy from my keeper roster when he suffered that bad skate cut a few years back. Bad move. He recovered far sooner from a severed peroneal nerve than I thought he would, and he's now pushing for more playing time. Antti Niemi is pretty much a sieve (OK, he's not that bad, but his teammates sure don't have a lot of confidence in him). The Sharks are trying to push to the postseason. And if they make a run, it could well be on the back of this guy. He's worth grabbing just in case.

Tom Wilson, RW, Washington (3 percent) - This guy is a snarling monster on skates. Sure, he has a bit of offensive skill, but he's not in my lineup for that. He has 49 PIM and 31 hits in his last nine games. I'm eight PIM from gaining a full point in the Friends and Family league and I can take it away from the guy sitting just ahead of me in the standings. I'm all over that.

Back to Sid the Kid.

His best is likely behind him. And there's a real chance that we've seen the end of the 95-point season for the league's best player.

Or anyone, for that matter. That is, until Connor McDavid decends on the NHL.

Sid will be 28 this summer. It's not like he's old. But I'm not building a keeper league around him anymore. Elite players stay at their peak longer. But there's still a decline after 29.

Maybe that's why Corey Perry, who will be 30 in May, is mired in a 44-game, power-play goal slump. But I digress.

The NHL has changed, and it's time to change fantasy perspectives. It's going to take some work to test some different hypotheses, especially when it's hard to put my finger on the exact reason for the overall offensive decline. But it's better to invest some time than be left behind on draft day.

Good thing I only manage one fantasy baseball squad.

Until next week.