Minor League Barometer: Farming for Prospects

For the Toronto Blue Jays, baseball is a family affair. At least that argument can be made when taking stock of their current farm system. For starters, the top prospect for the Jays is Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., a teenager with a power-packed swing like his father, who was one of the best "bad ball" hitters ever. Vladdy Jr. is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and is batting .309 with a .441 OBP for Low-A Lansing.

Meanwhile, the Jays drafted Bo Bichette in the second round of the 2016 draft. Bo's father Dante was an exceptional hitter, and his brother, Dante, Jr., is in the Yankees' organization. Bo is also at Low-A and is hitting .375 with a .474 OBP through 13 games for the Lugnuts.

Or how about Lourdes Gurriel, a Cuban defector and younger brother of Houston's Yuli Gurriel? Though he's on the DL right now with a hamstring strain, the younger Gurriel was inked to a $22 million deal based largely on his name and potential alone.

So what's in a name? Does a family background with a baseball pedigree help or hinder a prospect? Does the apple fall far from the tree? Every prospect is eventually forced to blaze their own path to the big leagues, since good genes can only get you so far.

Let's take a look at the rest of the prospect landscape in this edition of the Minor League Barometer…

UPGRADE

Christian Arroyo, SS, SF - Arroyo has come out of the gates scorching-hot for Triple-A Sacramento, slashing .446/.478/.692 through 16 games. The uptick in power is notable, as Arroyo has already matched his home run total from last season. Sure, he's playing in the hitter-friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League, but at just 21 years of age, it remains possible that Arroyo is still finding his power stroke. With a possible move to third base in his future, the Giants would certainly welcome additional power. Regardless, Arroyo should hit for average, make consistent contact and even swipe a base or two. He just may not end up at shortstop due to the presence of Brandon Crawford.

Albert Abreu, P, NYY - Abreu was an under-the-radar acquisition for the Bronx Bombers. He came over from the Houston Astros in the offseason, and was dominant in three starts at Low-A to begin the season. Abreu notched a 1.84 ERA and 22:3 K:BB in just 14.2 innings, quickly earning a promotion to High-A. Abreu has a four-pitch arsenal; his best pitches are a blazing fastball and above-average slider. If Abreu's continues to harness his command, he could emerge as an elite arm for the Yankees.

Lewis Brinson, OF, MIL - The toolsy outfielder is hitting .370 to begin the season, with three home runs and two steals through 11 games for Triple-A Colorado Springs. As long as Brinson stays healthy, he should prove a valuable commodity, but he has averaged only about 100 games per season throughout his minor league career. Nevertheless, he has double-digit potential in home runs and steals, as well as the ability to hit for average. While his strike zone judgment can be erratic, Brinson has the physical gifts to make up for some of these deficiencies. Brinson could end up with an everyday job for Milwaukee shortly if Keon Broxton continues to struggle, or if the Brewers finally pull the trigger on a Ryan Braun trade.

Erick Fedde, P, WAS - Fedde has about as much upside as any pitcher in the minors. The electric hurler was often left out of the conversation regarding elite pitching prospects due to Tommy John surgery, but that is likely no longer the case. Fedde has a sharp fastball with bite, along with improved secondary pitches in the form of a slider and change-up. The 24-year-old has allowed just one earned run through three starts for Double-A Harrisburg, posting a 17:6 K:BB in 18 innings. He will likely be on a limit of around 150-160 innings this season, as he went from 64 innings in 2015 to 121 last year. As long as his control holds, and there's no reason to believe it won't, Fedde will likely enter 2018 as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and could have the chance to crack the opening day rotation for the Nats.

CHECK STATUS

A.J. Puk, P, OAK - The statistics jump off the page for Puk, as the 21-year-old southpaw skipped Low-A and has posted a 27:4 K:BB through 15 innings at High-A Stockton. Of course, the 6-foot-7 hurler is pitching in just three- or four-inning stints as of right now, gaining arm strength and ensuring he is fully recovered from a back injury suffered last spring. He also yielded five runs in just three innings during his last outing. Nevertheless, Puk's strikeout potential, along with impressive command and college pedigree, make him a candidate to move quickly through the ranks for the Athletics.

Ryan McMahon, 3B, COL - What a difference a year makes. McMahon floundered in 2016 in his first crack at Double-A, hitting a career-low .242 while fanning 161 times in 133 games. Still just 22 years of age, McMahon has returned to Double-A to begin 2017 and has been raking. McMahon is batting .391 with three home runs and league-high 18 RBI through 16 games. Perhaps more importantly, McMahon has shown much better plate discipline, posting a 12:8 K:BB over those 16 games. It remains to be seen where McMahon will end up due to the presence of Nolan Arenado at the big-league level, but it certainly can't hurt the Rockies to have this kind of hitting depth in the minors.

Ryan O'Hearn, 1B, KC - The 23-year-old O'Hearn often doesn't get much publicity due to the fact that he hails from Sam Houston State and was an eighth-round pick back in 2014. That said, he's had at least 20 home runs and 75 RBI in each of his last two full years in the minors. He also has a lifetime .289 batting average as a professional. O'Hearn is off to a stellar start at Triple-A Oklahoma City, as well, where he is slashing .317/.369/.650 with five home runs and 11 RBI through 15 games. He could stand to strike out a little less, but he is also not afraid to draw a walk, and should still make his MLB debut sometime this season. He won't overtake Eric Hosmer at first base for the Royals, but O'Hearn remains a prospect to watch for Kansas City.

Jalen Beeks, P, BOS - Beeks could be a diamond in the rough for the BoSox, assuming his control holds and the sudden uptick in strikeouts is real. A 12th round selection in the 2014 draft, Beeks has fanned 22 batters over his first 15.2 innings for Double-A Portland. The 23-year-old southpaw is not exactly an intimidating figure on the mound, but his fastball can dance, and he's not easy to pick up. Also, he's got three off-speed pitches, with the best being a change-up. With so many moving parts, repeating his delivery and finding the same release point can be an issue for Beeks, thus the command problems in the past. He's also had some arm troubles in the past. Nevertheless, if the production continues over a larger sample size, the Red Sox will be forced to take a long, hard look at Beeks.

DOWNGRADE

Dylan Cozens, OF, PHI - One of the biggest stories of the 2016 season must prove that his breakout campaign was no fluke. Cozens is off to a rough start in 2017, hitting just .140 through 17 games at Triple-A. Cozens has had difficulty making contact, posting a 25:8 K:BB over that span after fanning 186 times last year. He does have three home runs and 10 RBI but has yet to steal a base after swiping 20 last year, and won't be seeing the big leagues anytime soon if he continues to sputter in terms of his batting average.

Sean Newcomb, P, ATL - Newcomb has been fairly hittable to begin the 2017 season, which hasn't been the case in the past. He's always been wild and issued plenty of walks, but opposing batters are hitting an unusual .295 against him through his first three starts at Triple-A Gwinnett. Unfortunately, the walks have also been present, resulting in a bloated 5.65 ERA. Newcomb has still fanned 18 batters over those 14.1 innings, but too many base runners on a consistent basis will ultimately cause doom for the 23-year-old lefty. There does not appear to be any end in sight to his control problems, either: Newcomb has walked at least 70 batters in each of the last two seasons, and is on a similar pace again with nine walks in 14.1 innings thus far. Red flags abound for the southpaw, even if his raw stuff is exceptional.

Jon Harris, P, TOR - The 23-year-old righty has been shaky through three outings at Double-A, serving up five home runs. Harris had only given up four homers over the first 165.2 innings of his minor league career, so clearly something is awry. In fact, opposing batters are hitting an absurd .339 against the first round selection, resulting in an ERA of 7.04. Harris is supposed to be the most polished of the Blue Jays' top-tier pitching prospects, but his location has been spotty since the end of last season, and his upside is limited. Harris most likely projects as a future back-of-the-rotation starter at this point.

Ariel Jurado, P, TEX - Jurado has high promise for the Rangers but has been suspect to begin the 2017 season. The 21-year-old righty has been battered in three starts, posting an unsightly 7.47 ERA. He's allowed a staggering 24 hits in just 15.2 innings, including four home runs. For a pitcher that works down in the zone, this is uncharacteristic to say the least. His strikeout rate also continues to dip as he ascends to the higher levels. He's not overpowering, though he does throw strikes, so Jurado may end up in the bullpen when all is said and done. In the Texas farm system, he remains one of their best commodities, but he's not exactly a "sexy" prospect and would not be ranked as highly in other systems.