This article is part of our Umpire Analysis series.
Those who read this column last Tuesday probably noticed that it did not remerge for a look at the weekend slate. The reason for this is not because I was hesitant to defend my Nathan Karns recommendation against the Orioles (ouch), but because of a scheduling conflict, which has resulted in the piece being a once-a-week feature for the time being. Not to worry, however, as there will still be plenty of games for us to go over, and I will be available via the "Ask an Expert" section if you want to send me a question about picks directly. Before we sink our teeth into upcoming plays, lets recap the last batch of selections.
Game BAL@TB
Umpire: Ed Hickox
Player recommendation: Nathan Karns, RHP: 5.2 IP 6 R 5 H 4 BB 4 K
Ick. Our umpire, who had a 2.9 BB/9 rate last season, saw that number spike to 5.0 in the contest, and while it did look like Karns was squeezed at times, that was probably a product of him being wild early. It's worth noting that Karns bounced back in his next start against the Marlins, striking out six and allowing just one earned run in seven innings, so don't be shy about using him again under the right conditions.
Game: SF@ARI
Umpire: Eric Cooper
Player recommendation: Brandon Belt, 1B: 1-for-2, RBI
We were off to a good start in this one, but Belt had to leave the contest with a groin injury in the bottom of the fourth. The game yielded 13 runs with Cooper behind the plate, making him one to watch the next time he sets up behind the catcher.
Game: MIN@DET
Umpire: Kerwin Danley
Player recommendation: Anibal Sanchez, RHP: 6.2 IP 3 H 2 BB 6 K
Sanchez rolled to a victory in this one, but the game did end up yielding 11 runs, which may be the product of a slow start by the Twins and a talented Detroit offense. We'll continue to watch Danley going forward.
Game: BOS@PHI
Umpire: Phil Cuzzi
Player Recommendation: David Ortiz, DH/1B:N/A
Ortiz was out of the lineup during the second game of the series in an NL Park, recording an out in a pinch-hit appearance.
Game: CHW@KC
Umpire: Bob Davidson
Player Recommendation: Edinson Volquez, RHP: 8 IP, 4 H ER BB 5 K
I paid particularly close attention to this start, as Volquez was being listed as a potential stack option in certain corners of the Internet. While he wasn't able to up his strikeout rate, he did walk just one batter, which is notable, considering Davidson's 2.7 BB/9 last season.
Game: TOR@NYY
Umpire Jerry Meals
Player Recommendation: Russell Martin, C: 0-for-4
The pick itself was a dud, but the game did yield nine runs, with two balls leaving the yard off Blue Jays pitcher Daniel Norris.
Picks For This Week
Tuesday
Game: MIA@ATL
Umpire: Brian O'Nora
Player Recommendation: Trevor Cahill, RHP
Both Cahill and Tom Koehler seem like good fits for this matchup, as they will be aided by O'Nora's tendency to call strikes (2.6 BB/9 last season), but I'll likely stick with Cahill, who is running a bit cheaper, and may carry more upside in the FanDuel format, having tallied an 8.1 K/9 in 17 starts in 2014.
Game: PHI@NYM
Umpire: Alfonzo Marquez
Player Recommendation: Lucas Duda, 1B
Marquez's 3.68 ERA behind the catcher last season may not jump out as a target, but his strikeout rate (7.3/9) was among the lowest in the league for umpires who saw at least 100 innings. That, in addition to his 3.1 BB/9, could create even more problems than usual for soft-tosser David Buchanan.
Wednesday
Game: OAK@HOU
Umpire Tim Welke
Player Recommendation: Drew Pomeranz, LHP
Welke showed strong strikeout and walk rates (8.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9) in 2014, which should allow Pomeranz to work more efficiently while continuing to rack up punchouts.
Game: ARI@SD
Umpire: Adrian Johnson
Player Recommendation: Yonder Alonso, 1B
Diamondbacks starter Chase Anderson has posted solid strikeout rates in his young career, but Johnson's 7.3 K/9 seen last season should work to mitigate that, while his 3.1 BB/9 exacerbates his walk rate. Alonso hasn't had much success at the major league level, but he's off to a nice start this season and has shown power, making him a strong cost-effective option with the right matchup.
Thursday
Game: KAN@MIN
Umpire Dana Demuth
Player Recommendation: Jason Vargas, LHP
Vargas doesn't have that "wow" factor, but he showed pinpoint control last season, walking just 41 batters in 127 innings. He should be able to keep hitting the target with Demuth on the field, as he saw just 2.6 BB/9 in 329 innings last season.
That will wrap things up for this week. I would like to thank those who commented last week, and invite others to share their thoughts as we progress further into the season.
