This article is part of our From the Press Box series.
My record for predicting the 2015 NHL playoff series stands at 11-3 after splitting the conference final picks. This Finals matchup reminds me of the Islanders and Oilers meeting when one dynasty met the next one several years ago. There is an awful lot to like about each of these teams and we should see some more great hockey in the next two weeks.
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Both teams took the same path to the final by winning decisive Game 7s with rather convincing road victories. To learn a bit about both teams, we'll compare them at each key position and conclude with the way each team might win the series.
Who has the edge in goal?
In these playoffs, Tampa Bay's Ben Bishop got less praise than each of the goalies he has beaten (Detroit's Petr Mrazek, Montreal's Carey Price and the Rangers' Henrik Lundqvist). Bishop is a huge presence given his big 6-foot-7 frame, and in 20 games he has a 2.15 goals-against average and three shutouts.
Corey Crawford has righted himself after a shaky first round. He has appeared in 15 playoff games and allowed at least three goals in nine of them. Even though he has improved with five very good starts in the seven-game set with Anaheim, I give the nod to Bishop.
Who has the edge on defense?
Tampa Bay: Victor Hedman (one goal, nine assists), Anton Stralman (one goal, six assists), Nikita Nesterov (one goal, five assists), Jason Garrison (one goal, three assists), Braydon Coburn (minus-7 rating), Matt Carle (minus-8) and Andrej Sustr (three points, plus-6)
Chicago: Duncan Keith (18 points, plus-13) Niklas Hjalmarsson (six points, plus-5) first pairing; Brent Seabrook (six goals, four assists, plus-6), Johnny Oduya (four points, plus-5);
The Hawks' defensemen have contributed much more to the offense than their Tampa counterparts, and Keith is a candidate for the Conn Smythe (for playoff MVP). The Hawks top four have played more minutes than Tampa's top pairings, but they have shown no sign of wear and tear yet. Splitting up Keith and Seabrook was deemed necessary because of the failure to ice a competent third pairing. The trio of Kyle Cumiskey, Kimmo Timonen and David Rundblad has merely been a placeholder, each averaging fewer than 10 minutes per game. Hedman needs to step up his game for the Bolts, otherwise Keith is by far the dominant defenseman in this series. The Lightning have been getting strong defensive work out of their top pairings and have more depth on their side right now. Stralman has really elevated his game and is a great fit with Hedman, particularly in terms of puck movement. I wonder if they can survive if the Hawks turn up the physical play.
Who has the edge at forward?
Tampa's team leaders, Steven Stamkos, Ryan Callahan and Alex Killorn have started to catch fire. The Triplets Line of Tyler Johnson (possible playoff MVP), Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat have been exceptional throughout the postseason. Valtteri Filppula is a great bit of offensive insurance and has fit into gaps on the top six. Brian Boyle has been a huge defensive presence and shot blocker. Tampa's top two lines have been setting a track-meet pace in these playoffs.
The Blackhawks top six -- Jonathan Toews-Marian Hossa-Patrick Kane and Brad Richards-Patrick Sharp-Brandon Saad -- has won Cups before and they have played like it in this postseason. Shaw has also been an offensive star (nine points) and has moved into a number of different roles throughout these playoffs. Teuvo Teravainen, Marcus Kruger and Antoine Vermette have each had a nice moment in the playoffs, but they have been invisible otherwise.
I think the Hawks have a slight edge as long as they can control the pace. Toews and Kane are playing with a palpable fire in their eyes and have raised their game to typical playoff levels, for them, which means big trouble for the Lightning.
Coaching styles: Joel Quenneville vs. Jon Cooper
Coach Q has the rings but he's been volatile, likely realizing this is the last ride for this core group. Cooper has been very calm and controlled, getting complete buy-in from his troops. The Lightning are young and on the rise and he knows it. I call this in favor of Quenneville because he's been on this stage before.
The Hawks win if...their experienced hands can slow down the Tampa forwards by playing a more physical game. Those same stars just need to reach down and deliver the same kind of two-way effort with a focus and determination that has led to previous success at this level. Crawford cannot afford to stumble as he has in each prior round.
The Lightning win if...their speedsters wear out the older Hawks who will play big minutes. Three previous opponents have not solved the first two forward lines. They have also created havoc with their quick puck movement in the offensive zone. We saw the experienced Rangers defense limit them at times, and the veteran Hawks rearguards will have to do the same.
My Pick: Chicago wins it in six, as this group has looked supremely motivated. Toews, Kane and company have had fire in their eyes from the start of the postseason. Toews will move into "Messier" class with yet another Cup as this team's leader. Kane is also continuing a point-per-game pace in the playoffs. Both will cement Hall of Fame status as they head into the offseason as the first $10 million cap-hitters in the salary cap limited era. The NHL will have its first "salary cap era" dynasty as the Hawks grab their third Cup in only six years.
