DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

All player prices are as of Friday, June 12

Pitchers

Michael Pineda, NYY (Fri. at BAL), $8900 – Pineda's facing a decent lineup at a ballpark that's somewhat favorable to hitters, but the strikeout-happy Orioles (22.6 percent K rate) make for a high-upside fantasy matchup. Speaking of upside, Pineda has a 76:7 K:BB ratio over 70.1 innings this season, and his key ERA estimators (2.39 FIP, 2.44 xFIP, 2.50 SIERA) strongly suggest he's unlucky to have a still-impressive 3.33 ERA, even when we give consideration to the Yankees' subpar defense. It might make sense to spend up for Felix Hernandez and/or Clayton Kershaw in cash games, but Pineda offers a similar ceiling at a much lower price, making him the more attractive option for GPPs.

Collin McHugh, HOU (Sat. afternoon vs. SEA) – McHugh's second full season has thus far been disappointing, but his price now reflects that reality, and his skills appear to be largely unchanged from last year. Although he probably won't come close to last season's 25.1 percent strikeout rate, the 27-year-old right-hander still has strong swinging-strike (10.6 percent) and contact (77.3) rates, suggesting his current strikeout rate (19.1 percent) should eventually jump back over 20 percent. He can take a big step in that direction Saturday afternoon, facing a Seattle team with MLB's fourth-highest strikeout rate (22.3 percent). The Mariners have been especially whiff-happy of late, posting a 25.1 percent strikeout rate over the last 30 days.

Zack Greinke, LAD (Sat. night at SD) – I probably don't need to do too much selling on this one, given that Greinke will head to Petco Park to face a weak San Diego lineup that's very dependent on right-handed batters. The Padres rank 25th in strikeout rate (21.8 percent) and 24th in wRC+ (90), with even lower ranks (26th and 25th) against right-handed pitchers. Greinke, meanwhile, has just been doing his usual thing, boasting a 1.92 ERA and 68:17 K:BB ratio through 79.2 innings.

Lance McCullers, HOU (Sun. vs. SEA) – McCullers' price is finally starting to come up, but he should still be a fantastic bargain for at least one or two more outings. He's put up at least 14.9 DK points in each of his five big-league starts, averaging 23.5 per outing while posting a 36:6 K:BB ratio over 31 innings. Yes, the sample size is still small, and McCullers' minor-league track record suggests walks may eventually be an issue, but it's hard to find this kind of strikeout upside at such a reasonable price. As previously discussed in relation to Collin McHugh, the Mariners are not good at putting their bats on the ball.

Other options:Felix Hernandez, SEA (Fri. at HOU), $11,300; Danny Salazar, CLE (Fri. at DET), $9400; Jesse Chavez, OAK (Fri. at LAA), $7300; Jacob deGrom, NYM (Sat. afternoon vs. ATL) Chris Archer, TB (Sat. afternoon vs. CWS); Kyle Hendricks, CHC (Sat. night vs. CIN); Chris Sale, CWS (Sun. at TB); Max Scherzer, WAS (Sun. at MIL); Cole Hamels, PHI (Sun. at PIT)

Batters

C Travis d'Arnaud, NYM (vs. ATL), $3500 – The Mets should probably move d'Arnaud up in the lineup, but even if they don't, the No. 6 hole is still pretty darn good in comparison to where most catchers hit. Of course, few catchers are as dangerous as d'Arnaud, who oddly seems to fly under the radar despite his strong production and former top-prospect status. He's picked up right where he left off in April, going 3-for-8 with a pair of doubles in two games since returning from a hand injury. Just make sure he's in the lineup, as the Mets will presumably give him a day off at some point this weekend.

1B Adam LaRoche, CWS (at TB), $3500 – Though you'll obviously want to avoid LaRoche on Saturday against the unhittable Chris Archer, the nightmare matchup is sandwiched by much more favorable jousts with fellow right-handers Matt Andriese and Nate Karns. Despite the reduced price and his solid recent performance, LaRoche will likely have fairly low ownership percentages in those attractive matchups, as most White Sox stacks will deploy Jose Abreu at first base. I actually also like Abreu this weekend, but I'd rather save $1300 and use his less popular teammate. With Abreu homering in consecutive games entering Friday, LaRoche may be criminally under-rostered, even after hitting a homer of his own in Chicago's last game.

2B Kolten Wong, STL (vs. KC), $3600 – $3600 is the price to pay for a second basemen this weekend, with Wong, Ben Zobrist and Neil Walker all looking like good bets to outperform the cheap price tag. It's tough to pick one over the others, but Wong draws consecutive matchups against very hittable right-handers on Friday (Yordano Ventura) and Saturday (Jeremy Guthrie). He's also been easily the most productive of the trio this season, putting up 7.6 DK points per game. Even with the adjustment as he returns from Coors Field, Wong seems like a steal at $3600.

3B/OF Brock Holt, BOS (vs. TOR), $3100 – Holt has been batting second in the Boston lineup, nestled between Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez. Oddly enough, on a team with so many big names, Holt has arguably been the best non-Pedroia performer, posting a .303/.391/.424 slash line through 132 at-bats. He's not the type of guy I typically target for GPPs, but he does offer the occasional home run or stolen base, and the price is just too good to resist. Best of all, the Red Sox will face a trio of middling right-handers this weekend, with Drew Hutchison (Friday), R.A. Dickey (Saturday) and Marco Estrada (Sunday) scheduled to pitch for Toronto. All three are very vulnerable to the long ball, so even Holt is a threat to knock one out. As bad as the Red Sox have been struggling, they're a nice stacking option for each of the next three days.

OF Yasiel Puig, LAD (at SD), $4300 – Even at Petco Park, Puig for $4300 is a first-rate bargain, unless he's facing an excellent pitcher. With Odrisamer Despaigne and Ian Kennedy scheduled for Friday and Saturday, respectively, that won't be a concern until Sunday's matchup with James Shields. Puig seems to have recovered quite nicely from his hamstring injury, going 9-for-15 with a home run and three doubles in four games since he was activated from the DL. Most recently, he went 4-for-4 against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday, cruising to 33 DK points.

OF Gregory Polanco, PIT (vs. PHI), $3800 – Polanco should obviously be avoided on Sunday against Cole Hamels, but he's a top option for both Friday (Kevin Correia) and Saturday (Sean O'Sullivan), facing a couple of hideous right-handed pitchers. Polanco is in a bit of a mini-slump, but he's always a threat to pick up a couple of steals, and he also offers a bit of power. A price in the low-$4000s seems fair, so I'll be happy to roster him at just $3800.

Other options:C/1B Buster Posey, SF (vs. ARI), $4600; 1B Edwin Encarnacion, TOR (at BOS), $5000; 1B Mark Teixeira, NYY (at BAL), $4700; 2B Neil Walker, PIT (vs. PHI), $3600; 2B/OF Logan Forsythe, TB (vs. CWS), $3200; 3B Alex Rodriguez, NYY (at BAL), $4200; SS/OF Alex Guerrero, BOS (vs. TOR), $4600; 3B/SS Xander Bogaerts, BOS (vs. TOR), $3600; SS Jimmy Rollins, LAD (at SD), $3400 3B/SS Marcus Semien, OAK (at LAA), $3400; OF Joc Pederson, LAD (at SD), $4100; OF Kole Calhoun, LAA (vs. OAK), $4000; OF Christian Yelich, MIA (vs. COL) $3900; 1B/OF Mark Canha, OAK (at LAA), $3200

Lineup Stacks

Friday

TOR at BOS's Joe Kelly
Rays vs. CWS's John Danks
Mariners at HOU's Brett Oberholtzer
Cardinals vs. KC's Yordano Ventura
A's at LAA's Hector Santiago
Pirates vs. PHI's Kevin Correia
Twins at TEX's Wandy Rodriguez

Saturday afternoon

Marlins vs. COL's David Hale
Cardinals vs. KC's Jeremy Guthrie
Rangers vs. MIN's Mike Pelfrey
Pirates vs. PHI's Sean O'Sullivan
Astros vs. SEA's Mike Montgomery
Red Sox vs. TOR's R.A. Dickey

Saturday night

Giants vs. ARI's Josh Collmenter
Yankees at BAL's Bud Norris
Cubs vs. CIN's Mike Leake

Sunday

Cubs vs. CIN's Anthony DeSclafani
Nationals at MIL's Taylor Jungmann
Orioles vs. NYY's C.C. Sabathia
Twins at TEX's Nick Martinez
Red Sox vs. TOR's Marco Estrada

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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