Mound Musings: Know When to Fold 'Em?

Now about six weeks into the season, we can see both encouraging surprises and unfortunate follies. By now, many owners of pitchers falling well short of preseason expectations are beginning to question their predictive capabilities. Some pitchers deserve that ownership desire to jump off the ship taking on water, but others might be about ready to level out those ugly April numbers. The trick is knowing the difference. Some poor performances can be tied to minor injuries – or this season, in many cases, significant injuries – bad luck, mechanical inconsistency, tough match-ups or a full-blown combination of all these things. The question is, should you exercise patience, or cut your losses and look for help in all the right places?

Evaluating good pitchers posting bad numbers:

Pitchers go through periods of inconsistency, and that can be especially evident early in the season when they're working on putting all the pieces together. It only takes a little bad luck with some early season inconsistency to severely tarnish the small sample of a few innings accumulated in those first few starts. It can be frustrating to be sure.

Obviously, pitchers with a positive track record, assuming they are healthy, probably won't post atrocious numbers all season despite a horrid April. But, you have to be careful. Some pitchers, especially those with little or no track record, can maintain blatant ugliness long term. They probably won't do it at the major league level for long but they can do a lot of damage to your stats in a short period of time. All this said, I'm a huge believer in stats leveling out over the course of a full season. Pitchers who have the skill set to post a WHIP of 1.10 and an ERA of 3.00 won't give you those numbers every start. The numbers will be an accumulation of stats from all 30 to 32 starts.

So, there are many reasons for pitcher ineffectiveness, especially early in the season. Some pitchers are just slow starters and it takes them a few starts to get in the rhythm. This year, perhaps more than ever, a nagging (and sometimes unreported) injury could be a factor. Even worse, with so many injuries, there's a seemingly never-ending stream of questionable arms arriving to fill those holes in the rotation. Early on, as teams try to delay the arbitration clock on their best young arms, these pitchers are often low-value, nonprospects, And, of course, with the small sample sizes you see in April, it could be a big dose of bad luck. Your challenge is to sort through the factors and decide who deserves your patience.

Below is a list of six starting pitchers the typical fantasy owner might have felt pretty good about having as key members of his/her rotation after draft day. If you have a couple of these guys, it's been a rough go. If you somehow landed all six, playing the lottery has probably been a frustrating endeavor for you. Hopefully your luck will change. There are certainly others who qualify, but these guys are top of the list.

Here is our staff of strugglers, and what to expect going forward:

• Adam Wainwright, 1.87 WHIP, 6.37 ERA (Cardinals) – It can be very difficult to watch an icon on the mound struggle to adjust when his physical skills begin to fade. I watched Wainwright Tuesday night in his start against Miami. Early on he was pretty much keeping their hitters at bay. He mixed things up, he altered his motion continually to reduce the hitter's ability to pick the ball up, and he changed speeds to keep them off balance. In essence, he pulled every trick out of his bag. While he kept the Cardinals in the game, his pitch count rose and he had trouble finishing off hitters. He's a fighter, but it's not coming easily. He ended up loading the bases in the sixth, and the bullpen allowed them all to score. I really do think Wainwright will find a way to extend his outstanding career – he's that kind of pitcher – but I have doubts the transition will happen soon. Verdict: Fold 'em.

• Kevin Gausman, 1.74 WHIP, 6.63 ERA (Orioles) – Those are certainly ugly numbers, but they were worse until recently. The light at the end of the Gausman tunnel appears to be getting brighter. Early on, it was so bad, many felt it had to be injury-related, but watching Gausman, you could that see it was more likely mechanical and at least somewhat mental. The velocity was clearly there, and occasionally a pitch showed the old life. But, there was no consistency, and he wasn't confident in every pitch achieving its objective. Two starts back, things began to change. It wasn't great, but it was better. Then, in his last outing against a potentially devastating Nationals' lineup, it all seemed to fall back in place. He was consistently spotting his 95-97 mph fastball (xx of xx first pitch strikes), and his splitter was rolling off the table resulting in eight strikeouts over seven quality innings. Has he turned the corner? There is good reason to hope so. There could be minor regression, but good things are ahead. Verdict: Hold 'em.

• Matt Moore, 1.55 WHIP, 6.52 ERA (Giants) – I have been really, really patient, because I see what could be. Since his days in the minors, Moore has flashed hints of the ability that could make him an ace. Unfortunately, after a very brief glimpse, Dr. Jeckyl too often turned into Mr. Hyde. The pitch counts soared, walks filled the bases, and a poorly placed, get-me-over strike would end his day far too early. The still young lefty (almost always a challenge) just can't seem to lock in a release point. With his injury history, and inconsistency, attempts have been made to alter his mechanics, but with limited, and apparently fleeting, success. At age 27, there's still time for things to click. If they do, he could turn into a fantasy stud with a low ERA and 200-plus strikeouts a season, but he's still too volatile to count on today. I never like to sell low on high upside starters, but your options are limited. With deep benches in a keeper format, he's probably worth holding, but in a shallow redraft, probably not. Verdict: Jury is out.

• Corey Kluber, 1.37 WHIP, 5.06 ERA (Indians) – I almost never downgrade a pitcher based on a short term injury. Hopefully "short term" applies here. Kluber hasn't been really right so far this year, and he ended up on the DL with a sore back. Elbow and shoulder injuries usually sap a pitcher's velocity, but core body or leg injuries can sometimes manifest themselves only as command issues. Kluber's velocity has been where you'd expect, but his two-seamer isn't crisp, often floating up into the prime hitting zone, and he has had problems spotting all of his offerings. Kluber relies on keeping hitters off balance while teasing them all around the edges of the strike zone. Without overpowering stuff, if he gets into the middle of the plate, he can become somewhat vulnerable, and that happened too often in his April outings. Everything suggests his back woes can be addressed, and your likely investment would make it very difficult to cut him loose even if you were so inclined. Verdict: Hold 'em.

• Kenta Maeda, 1.32 WHIP, 5.81 ERA (Dodgers) – Here's another quality starter with the skills to be consistent when he's in his rhythm. He's not exactly overpowering, and a slight uptick in his velocity could actually be contributing to his early season struggles. Two things are directly impacting his inflated ERA – his ground ball ratio is down, and he's allowing too many home runs. Both suggest he was up in the strike zone way too often, and watching him confirmed that assumption. Being too hittable and missing his spots too often also resulted in shorter outings and an inability to log quality starts (for fantasy leagues where those are crucial). Maeda has already started to show clear signs of making the necessary adjustments so, if you don't currently own him, perhaps you could make a play for him in your league? Verdict: Hold 'em.

• Matt Shoemaker, 1.34 WHIP, 5.21 ERA (Angels) – I have never been a huge fan of Shoemaker but I included him here because he remained a fairly popular target on draft day this year. Like so many others, he flashes solid skills from time-to-time but on many other days, he struggles to perform. This year has been more of the same. His velocity is in line and he still boasts an acceptable strikeout rate, but his command is still erratic leading to both too many walks, too many home runs and too many abbreviated outings (he has completed six-plus innings in just two of seven starts). He might still be a potential option in very deep mixed or AL-only leagues, but I just haven't seen anything to push me into the "still has upside" camp. Verdict: Fold 'em.
  

• There could have been reasons to consider Toronto's Aaron Sanchez for inclusion on the above list but he has pitched relatively well, when he's been able to take the mound. It looks like fingernail problems might be an ongoing concern, but hopefully he has had enough time to put them behind him.

• I almost included the Giants' Jeff Samardzija on the above list of struggling starters. His 5.44 ERA isn't pretty, but it's been heavily impacted by homeruns. He's a streaky pitcher who can be haunted by the long ball, but he throws strikes and limits baserunners, so I expect things to improve as the season progresses.

• Before the season even began, there were rumors swirling regarding the possibility that the White Sox' Jose Quintana would be dealt. Instead, the team got off to a solid start, quieting the trade speculation and Quintana has posted lackluster numbers. Look for the Quintana trade rumors to resurface.

• One more consideration for the underperformer list was the Phillies' Aaron Nola. He hasn't look right since spring training. He eventually went on the DL with a back strain and is nearing a return to the rotation. Back issues can play havoc with a pitcher's mechanics, so if healthy, he could return to his early 2016 form.

• A lot of people thought Blake Snell could take the next step this year in Tampa. He can be difficult to hit at times – his kind of stuff is pretty special – but because he lacks command, he can get into a lot of jams and high pitch counts make quality starts exceedingly rare. Give him time, but it may be painful.

• Earlier this week, it was reported that the Pirates' Jameson Taillon underwent surgery for what was suspected to be testicular cancer. Regular readers know of my fondness for his mound skills, and I'm sure you'll all join me in wishing him a quick and complete recovery. Get well and hurry back, Jameson!

  Endgame Odyssey:

  In Detroit the K-ROD era may have come to a sorrowful end. Francisco Rodriguez has consistently struggled in save situations, and his pitches lack any zip or predictable movement. There are a couple of closer-like farmhands, most notably Joe Jimenez, but he has hurdles to climb, leaving Justin Wilson as the current heir apparent. It was only a matter of time. The Angels' Cam Bedrosian is progressing in his rehab, and should quickly supplant emergency closer, Bud Norris. We're already hearing rumors of a potential fire sale in Kansas City. That's probably a bit premature, but if they do start moving key components, Kelvin Herrera and/or Joakim Soria could be dealt, changing the endgame structure in more than one city. Zach Britton was back in the Orioles' bullpen briefly, but it appears he came back too soon. They'll be more patient this time, with Britton now expected to miss up to two months, so the recently struggling Brad Brach could continue to be a fantasy asset. The Washington bullpen may soon qualify for federal disaster relief funds with Shawn Kelly and Koda Glover both out. Enny Romero, the most likely closer today, has a lot of arm, but he sometimes has no idea where each pitch is going. The injury carousel continues with Mark Melancon finding his way to the DL. Thankfully, it sounds like a brief stay for Melancon. Derek Law likely will be the interim closer despite a shaky post-injury save chance.