Weather may be an issue again Tuesday night, making it important to keep an eye on the forecast closer to lineup lock.
The four games starting before 7:05p ET are not included in this write-up, because those games are not available as part of the Classic format on DraftKings.
With 11 games in play, including a matchup of two young lefties at Coors (one, Eric Lauer of the Padres, is making his MLB debut), there is a very good chance that Tuesday will yield some gaudy cash lines.
Iím genuinely perplexed by Shohei Ohtani right now. The Astros have been striking out a decent amount against righties this season, despite being above average in terms of wRC+ (106), but Ohtani is coming off an outing against Boston last Tuesday when he struggled to command his arsenal and he left with a blister on his pitching hand (he was the DH in three games between starts, so the blister doesnít appear to be a major concern for the Halos).
As youíll notice below, heís not recommended as a target, a fade, or even as a pitcher to consider using any Houston bats against.
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Kenta Maeda, LAD vs. MIA ($9,300) -- Maeda ran into some trouble early in his last start against the Padres, but still managed to reach 22 points on DraftKings with a 10-strikeout performance in a winning effort. Heís set up with another great matchup Tuesday, as the Marlins continue their series with the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Maedaís strength continues to be mowing down righties, and while the Marlins havenít been whiffing uncontrollably in 2018, their extremely light output against righties (68 wRC+) is worth targeting, especially since the Dodgers are the most heavily-favored team on the board Tuesday.
Also in play among the pricey starters: Charlie Morton, HOU vs. LAA ($11,200)
Cheap GPP Consideration: Luke Weaver, STL vs. NYM ($7,500) -- The Metsí offense is one to pick on carefully, as theyíve been very good against righties (113 wRC+) despite a pitcher-friendly 27.4% K% this season. As a Zack Wheeler skeptic, Iím not expecting run support to be an issue for Weaver, and after a clunker last time out against the Cubs, I am somewhat hopeful that the ownership rate wonít be as high is it might typically be for a promising young pitcher at this price.
Fade: Robbie Ray, ARZ at PHI ($11,000) -- The ownership rate might be driven down the by the price, so the fade isnít necessarily a GPP-centric concern. The Phillies have been a dangerous offense against lefties (118 wRC+, 18.6% K%), the matchup is on the road for Ray, and Vince Velasquez has pitched very well in his last three starts, appearing to have turned the corner early on in 2018. If Iím taking one of the two top-priced arms, Charlie Morton at home, against a solid Angels lineup, is the setup Iím more comfortable with.
Chris Iannetta, COL vs SD ($3,500) -- Catcher is something of a disaster Tuesday. Iannetta draws Padres rookie left-hander Eric Lauer in his MLB debut, and there simply isnít a matchup that matches this one in terms of overall quality. Salvador Perez *might* be back from the DL for the series opener against Zach Davies and the Brewers ($3,200), and he would become my first choice as a pivot from Iannetta if that happens.
Lucas Duda, KC vs. MIL ($3,200) -- I promise, Iím not going to stack Royals. Until the pricing shifts to account for Dudaís success against right-handed pitching, heís going to surface in his space when the matchups are favorable. With a 121 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the start of 2016, Duda is regularly a cheap alternative to the elite players at the position -- many of whom are washed away as part of the four earlier evening games on the schedule Tuesday night.
Matt Carpenter, STL vs. NYM ($3,600) -- Carpenterís back injury during spring training doesnít seem to be an issue based on how heavily heís been used by manager Mike Matheny to this point. Entering play Tuesday, Carpenter has started all but one game for the Cards. The results have been ugly, despite his discerning eye at the plate, as Carpenterís average exit velocity has checked in at 88.0 mph this season (league average: 89.1). Heís been moving around the lineup in recent days, getting back-to-back turns atop the order Saturday and Sunday against the Reds, and whether he stays there, or is moved somewhere else in the top three spots, Carpenter has a golden opportunity against Zack Wheeler and the Mets on Tuesday night, as Wheelerís ongoing struggles against left-handed hitters over the past two seasons include a 1.94 HR/9 and .349 wOBA. The hope here is that heís not playing through persistent back pain (or some other injury) and simply hiding it.
Matt Chapman, OAK at TEX ($4,100) -- The Aís are matching up against Cole Hamels and the Rangers in Arlington on Tuesday, in a game that is carrying the second highest over/under total on the board (up to 10.0) behind the Padres-Rockies matchup at Coors Field. Hamels is still a competent, mid-rotation starter at this stage of his career, but his splits against righties over the last two-plus seasons include a .323 wOBA and 1.29 HR/9, which bodes well for the right-handed bats and switch-hitters in the Oakland lineup. Chapman has been locked into the No. 5 spot in each of the last four games -- all against left-handed starters -- and while the price isnít cheap, heís on the short list of second-tier considerations for those who are not using Nolan Arenado ($5,400) as their primary building block at third base.
Trevor Story, COL vs. SD ($4,300) -- Sure, Story will be heavily owned, but there isnít much else to get excited about in Tuesdayís group of shortstops. Pat Valaika ($3,000) may get a start at first base, and his eligibility at shortstop would be a nice way to veer away from Story if youíre concerned about ownership rates in a tournament, but outside of Marcus Semien against Cole Hamels in the Aís-Rangers matchup, is mostly contrarian calls. Brandon Crawford at $2,800 against Tanner Roark is a salary punt of sorts, but Crawford has hit 11 homers in 160 home games since the start of 2016, which limits his use mostly to tournaments. One pricey contrarian(?) pivot to consider is Corey Seager against lefty Dillon Peters. Seager is $100 more expensive than Story, but heís capably handled southpaws (.302/.362/.492) since the start of last season. Chad Pinder is SS-eligible on DraftKings, and at $3,300 against Cole Hamels, heís definitely in play thanks to his impressive splits against lefties (.279/.347/.462).
Teoscar Hernandez, TOR vs. BOS ($3,200) -- In cash games, Hernandez is a very good option, and tournaments, salt to taste, as there may be a lot of Rick Porcello skeptics out there looking for more room in their budget to load up Coors bats Tuesday. Hernandez his hit second in the Jaysí lineup in every game heís started this season, and heís done nothing to this point to suggest that heís overmatched by big-league pitching. During his last-season callup in 2017, Hernandez struck out a lot despite posting impressive power numbers, but heís cut back on the whiffs in the early going, and he is currently atop the leaderboard in barrel rate in 2018.
Marcell Ozuna, STL vs. NYM ($4,000) -- Itís fair to be skeptical of Zack Wheeler, even though the Mets are keeping him in their rotation ahead of Matt Harvey, at least for now. Wheelerís weaker split is to lefties, as noted above in the Carpenter recommendation, but his numbers against righties since the start of 2016 are nothing special (7.9% K-BB%, .337 wOBA, 1.09 HR/9). Whether you buy into Carpenter as a good play or not, Ozuna is arguably an elite source of power in the heart of a lineup that should be able to do some damage Tuesday, and he may fly somewhat under the radar thanks to Coors.
Corey Dickerson, PIT vs. DET ($3,600) -- Dickerson at the Pirates will match up with Jordan Zimmermann and the underwhelming Tigers bullpen Tuesday, if the rain in the forecast at PNC Park doesnít lead to a postponement. Zimmermann can be targeted with hitters on both sides of the plate, but PNC is basically a neutral park for left-handed power, while it cuts right-handed power considerably (three-year park index for RHH homers: 83). Planning on building around Pittsburgh bats will require having backup plans ready to roll, and in this case, Shin-Soo Choo ($3,600 vs. Andrew Triggs) is one to have queued up if needed.