This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
The new week starts at 6:10 EST with an "all-day" slate kicking off with the Indians at home against the Cole Hamels and the Rangers. As usual, the main slate starts at 7:05 and features 10 games. There's no Coors game tonight and eight of the games have a scheduled starting time of 8:10 EST or earlier. It appears to be a good night to find value in starting pitching, with few aces on the mound and the highest priced pitcher in the main slate, Charlie Morton, getting the red-hot Yankees.
For those interested, we've started an MLB DFS Slack channel for paid RotoWire subscribers. (There is a season-long one as well.) To join those channels, e-mail support@rotowire.com.
PITCHER
Jake Arrieta, PHI at MIA ($8,800): This is a fantastic matchup for Arrieta, as Miami ranks near or at the bottom of several offensive categories against right-handed pitching. The come into the game with the lowest wOBA (.264) against righties and lowest ISO (.083) as well. Their strikeout rate is only the fourth-highest in baseball at 25.5 percent, so they aren't the absolute worst in that category. Meanwhile Arrieta has been dominant on the mound this season, giving up only one home run in 24.2 innings and holding opposing teams to a .219 wOBA. It won't hurt if the Marlins best power hitter, Justin Bour, misses his third consecutive game.
GPP Fade: Jon Lester, CHC vs COL ($8,300): Lester has made five starts this season and from a fantasy perspective two were good, two were bad and one was mediocre at best. His 4.79 FIP suggests his 3.29 ERA should be higher, and the Rockies have the third-highest wOBA (.356) and ISO (.206) against southpaws. Lester continues to have issues holding base runners as well, and will be at more of a disadvantage if the wind is blowing out as predicted.
Cheap GPP Consideration: Jeff Samardzija, SF vs SD ($7,900): "Shark" had a rough first outing off the DL that should keep most owners away from him even in GPPs. However, this is an ideal matchup against the Padres, a team that has struggled against right-handed pitching on the season. They have the fourth-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitching (.290) which coincides with having the fourth-lowest ISO (.126). The key stat here is their strikeout rate against righties, the highest in the league at 28.3 percent. Samardzija pitched better at home last season with a 3.96 ERA, and a lot of his peripheral stats suggest that was unlucky.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
Marwin Gonzalez, HOU vs NYY ($3,100): Gonzalez was extremely good at home last season against right-handed pitching with a .385 wOBA and .262 ISO. His .369 wOBA with the same splits this season seems in line with 2017, and Sonny Gray has had mixed results since becoming a Yankee. Gray's 3.72 ERA last season with the Bronx Bombers was OK, but this season (in a limited sample) he's been disastrous with a 7.71 ERA.
SECOND BASE
Whit Merrifield, KC at BOS ($3,200): Merrifield has come to life for fantasy purposes with three stolen bases over his last five games and three home runs over his last 11. Merrifield, in his short career, has always had better success against left-handed pitching with a .370 wOBA and .202 ISO. Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled more at home (.327 wOBA) than on the road (.294 wOBA) for his career.
THIRD BASE
Evan Longoria, SF vs SD ($3,000): Longoria appears to be settling into his new home in San Francisco and has run his wOBA there up to a solid .340 mark. He'll face off against rookie Eric Lauer tonight, a rookie who was lit up in his first start last week in Colorado. For his career Longoria has had more success against left-handed pitchers, with a .370 wOBA and a .232 ISO both being excellent numbers.
SHORTSTOP
Eduardo Escobar, MIN vs TOR ($3,800): Escobar is off to a hot start this season and has begun to find himself regularly in the cleanup spot. While the price here is a little high, it's an easier night to fit in high-priced bats given the discounts with starting pitching. This game boasts the highest over/under at 9.5 for tonight's slate and Aaron Sanchez has a higher BB rate than K rate with an unsustainable .233 BABIP.
OUTFIELD
Albert Almora, CHC vs COL ($2,900): Several of the Cubs are in play tonight given that they're at home and facing off against a left-handed pitcher. Kris Bryant (career .387 wOBA at home vs lefties) and Javier Baez (.428, .476 wOBA at home vs lefties in the last two seasons) are certainly in play, but Almora comes at a nicely discounted price. He has a .392 career wOBA against left-handed pitching and should be in the leadoff spot tonight. Oddly, Kyle Freeland has been better at home than away in his short career against right-handed hitters and on the road has given up a .378 wOBA to that handedness.
Jesse Winker, CIN vs MIL ($2,900): Winker has been a fixture in the leadoff spot for the Reds and comes into tonight with a .299 batting average and .356 wOBA. Jhoulys Chacin has turned things around in his last three starts, but including this season has allowed a road wOBA of at least .361 in each of the last five years. His road .411 wOBA against lefties last season showed how much Petco Park aided his overall production.
UTILITY
Jesus Aguilar / Domingo Santana, MIL at CIN ($2,800): Both are good plays against left-handed pitching, but only one is likely to be in the lineup tonight with Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich and Ryan Braun all almost guaranteed to play. Aguilar has a career .361 wOBA against southpaws while Santana had a .372 wOBA against them last season. Both are in play if they make the starting lineup, but it's likely we only see one against Brandon Finnegan and the Reds.
