In-Season Strategy: Using the ROS H2H Rankings to Make Moves

RotoWire’s NBA statistics expert Marc Roberts uses the rest-of-season projections to evaluate current and future production and suggests some moves he’d make based on the head-to-head rankings and RotoWire’s recommended punting strategy of focusing the rankings on the six positive counting stats.

TRENDING UP

Damian Lillard: Through 38 games this season, Lillard is averaging a career high in each of the six positive counting fantasy categories on a per possession basis (according to basketball-reference.com):

Season 3PM REB AST STL BLK PTS
2012-13 3.1 4.3 8.8 1.2 0.3 25.9
2013-14 3.8 5.0 7.9 1.1 0.4 29.2
2014-15 3.9 6.8 8.9 1.9 0.4 31.5

That’s a remarkable achievement for someone who was thought to be close to a finished product after playing four years of college basketball. Best of all, Lillard’s improved production appears to be a sustainable, natural progression.

For example, his increased scoring average is due almost entirely to his improved ability to score close to the basket. Last season, Lillard made only 48.5% of his shot attempts within five feet of the basketball, ranking him 4th worst among starting point guards. This season, Lillard has improved his field goal percentage within five feet to 60.3%, ranking him as the 7th among starting point guards, per NBA.com.

Lillard has worked to get stronger, and it shows on plays like the one below where he is able to finish at the rim despite contact from a defender:

Lillard is also getting fantasy owners nearly twice as many steals as he has in years past, which seems to be a function of both an improved Blazers’ defensive, and individual improvements that Lillard has made to his game, which he discussed here.

These improvements, combined with his durability (Lillard has never missed a game), have Lillard checking in at number four overall in our head-to-head rest-of-season rankings below. If the Lillard owner in your league isn’t valuing him as a top-5 player, it might be a good opportunity to make a trade. I’d deal anyone not named Davis, Curry, Harden, or Durant for Lillard. Considering LeBron’s poor fantasy playoff schedule, I think a sharp LeBron owner would be looking to move James for a package that includes Lillard.

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WORTH OWNING

Rudy Gobert: Despite averaging 18.8 rebounds and 5.0 blocks per 100 possessions last season, Gobert came into the season on very few fantasy draft boards because of his limited role on the Utah Jazz. Gobert averaged only 9.6 mpg as a rookie, and there were concerns about whether he could share the court with Derrick Favors or Enes Kanter for extended periods of play.

Despite these concerns, Gobert’s role has expanded this season, and so has his game. Gobert has already played almost twice as many minutes as he did all of last season (788 vs. 434), and he is still putting up elite block (5.6 per 100 possessions) and rebounding (17.1 per 100 possessions) numbers. In addition, Gobert is providing more scoring (15.8 points per 100 possessions on 64% shooting compared to 12.1 points on 49% FG last season), and assists (2.2 assists per 100 possessions compared to 0.8 assists last season) this season.

Gobert’s fantasy breakout came just over a week ago when Enes Kanter went down with an ankle injury. During the four games that Kanter sat out, Gobert averaged 9.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 5.3 blocks in 33 mpg. Now that Kanter has returned from injury, Gobert’s minutes will likely take a hit in the short term.

Even with his uncertain minutes, I think it’s unwise to let Gobert sit on your waiver wire. It seems unlikely that the Jazz will shelf a player who has improved their defensive rating by 11 points per 100 possessions, and who leads the league in opponent field goal percentage for long. I’d look to add Gobert now with the hope that returns to the starting lineup soon. His fantasy potential is just too great.

Others to consider: Nerlens Noel (45%), Robert Covington (36%), Mario Chalmers (29%), Trey Burke (48%), DeMarre Carroll (32%), K.J. McDaniels (9%), Elfrid Payton (21%), Jarrett Jack (40%)

REST OF SEASON RANKINGS

Below are rankings and auction values based on RotoWire Projections for the rest of the regular season. These rankings and auction values are intended for head-to-head leagues where RotoWire recommends focusing on the six positive counting categories (pts, rebs, asts, stls, blks, three-pointers), even if that strategy makes your team non-competitive in the other three categories. For custom rankings you can go here.

Rank Auction Player Last Update ESPN Ownership%
1 $58 Stephen Curry 1 100%
2 $51 James Harden 4 100%
3 $50 Anthony Davis 3 100%
4 $44 Damian Lillard 10 100%
5 $44 LeBron James 2 100%
6 $43 Kevin Durant 5 100%
7 $43 John Wall 7 100%
8 $42 Chris Paul 6 100%
9 $41 DeMarcus Cousins 15 100%
10 $39 Blake Griffin 13 100%
11 $39 Michael Carter-Williams 9 88%
12 $38 Paul Millsap 11 98%
13 $37 Kyle Lowry 21 99%
14 $37 Russell Westbrook 8 100%
15 $34 Andre Drummond 18 98%
16 $34 Kemba Walker 12 95%
17 $33 Kevin Love 14 100%
18 $33 Klay Thompson 16 99%
19 $33 Jrue Holiday 22 90%
20 $32 DeAndre Jordan 19 97%
21 $31 Draymond Green 32 81%
22 $31 Ty Lawson 20 97%
23 $30 Marc Gasol 23 99%
24 $30 Rudy Gay 26 99%
25 $30 Kyrie Irving 17 100%
26 $30 Serge Ibaka 40 99%
27 $29 Jeff Teague 36 91%
28 $28 Gorgui Dieng 81 59%
29 $28 Mike Conley 30 95%
30 $28 LaMarcus Aldridge 33 100%
31 $28 Tim Duncan 34 96%
32 $27 Gordon Hayward 27 96%
33 $27 Chris Bosh 28 99%
34 $27 Dwight Howard 24 99%
35 $26 Wesley Matthews 43 87%
36 $26 Monta Ellis 39 99%
37 $26 Trevor Ariza 29 81%
38 $26 Darren Collison 45 80%
39 $25 Nicolas Batum 38 85%
40 $25 Victor Oladipo 42 81%
41 $25 Derrick Favors 47 92%
42 $24 Ricky Rubio 91 58%
43 $23 Rajon Rondo 35 96%
44 $23 Danny Green 55 67%
45 $22 Jimmy Butler 53 94%
46 $22 Kobe Bryant 31 99%
47 $22 Carmelo Anthony 37 99%
48 $22 Goran Dragic 51 93%
49 $21 Nerlens Noel 60 45%
50 $21 Tyreke Evans 52 86%
51 $21 Robert Covington 93 36%
52 $21 Eric Bledsoe 57 96%
53 $19 Brandon Jennings 48 79%
54 $19 Chandler Parsons 50 93%
55 $19 Thaddeus Young 54 78%
56 $19 Brandon Knight 61 88%
57 $18 Joe Johnson 69 89%
58 $18 Mario Chalmers 76 29%
59 $18 Kyle Korver 70 81%
60 $17 Bradley Beal 68 83%
61 $16 Joakim Noah 65 95%
62 $16 Josh Smith 41 81%
63 $16 Markieff Morris 49 78%
64 $16 Dirk Nowitzki 64 99%
65 $16 Kenneth Faried 72 89%
66 $16 Kawhi Leonard 46 94%
67 $16 Mason Plumlee Unranked 51%
68 $15 Andrew Wiggins 82 79%
69 $15 Greg Monroe 66 87%
70 $15 Al Horford 74 95%
71 $15 Pau Gasol 63 97%
72 $14 Al Jefferson 44 93%
73 $14 Nikola Vucevic 58 97%
74 $14 Rudy Gobert 150 28%
75 $14 Dwyane Wade 85 97%
76 $14 Trey Burke 71 48%
77 $13 DeMarre Carroll 83 32%
78 $13 K.J. McDaniels 75 9%
79 $12 Jared Sullinger 73 78%
80 $12 Terrence Ross 96 36%
81 $12 Ryan Anderson 79 75%
82 $11 Marcin Gortat 80 85%
83 $11 Zach Randolph 84 93%
84 $11 DeMar DeRozan 114 89%
85 $11 Jae Crowder Unranked 1%
86 $10 Tobias Harris 89 87%
87 $10 Tyson Chandler 86 86%
88 $10 Paul Pierce 78 53%
89 $9 Roy Hibbert 59 74%
90 $9 Luol Deng 109 79%
91 $8 Jamal Crawford 77 81%
92 $8 Kelly Olynyk 132 28%
93 $8 Marcus Smart 142 6%
94 $8 Elfrid Payton 133 21%
95 $8 J.J. Redick 106 61%
96 $8 Courtney Lee 101 17%
97 $8 Tony Wroten 103 69%
98 $7 Jose Calderon 117 29%
99 $7 Jarrett Jack 146 40%
100 $7 Giannis Antetokounmpo 113 67%
101 $7 David West 102 73%
102 $7 Ben McLemore 104 14%
103 $6 Isaiah Thomas 122 71%
104 $6 Mirza Teletovic 111 9%
105 $6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 98 10%
106 $6 Amir Johnson 119 23%
107 $6 Derrick Rose 105 96%
108 $5 Lance Stephenson 67 51%
109 $5 Jusuf Nurkic Unranked 19%
110 $5 Arron Afflalo 134 67%
111 $5 Patrick Beverley 112 45%
112 $5 Timofey Mozgov 92 22%
113 $4 Solomon Hill 130 7%
114 $4 Wilson Chandler 115 62%
115 $4 Jonas Valanciunas 97 76%
116 $4 Ed Davis 135 18%
117 $4 Channing Frye 62 7%
118 $3 Eric Gordon 176 16%
119 $3 Kevin Martin 183 53%
120 $3 Robin Lopez 95 23%
121 $3 Harrison Barnes 131 32%
122 $3 Manu Ginobili 121 45%
123 $3 Andrew Bogut 129 38%
124 $3 Jordan Hill 100 63%
125 $3 Reggie Jackson 94 64%
126 $3 Omer Asik 108 35%
127 $2 Taj Gibson 116 58%
128 $2 Corey Brewer 145 19%
129 $2 George Hill 149 37%
130 $2 P.J. Tucker 128 5%
131 $2 Evan Turner Unranked 14%
132 $2 Steven Adams 154 10%
133 $2 Dante Exum 191 2%
134 $2 Jeremy Lin 144 33%
135 $2 Tony Parker 107 84%
136 $1 Enes Kanter 88 32%
137 $1 James Johnson 168 4%
138 $1 Tristan Thompson 153 46%
139 $1 Andre Iguodala 127 20%
140 $1 Tony Allen 110 6%
141 $1 Khris Middleton 175 14%
142 $1 Cody Zeller 118 6%
143 $1 C.J. Miles 198 15%
144 $1 Patrick Patterson 148 7%
145 $1 Matt Barnes 140 5%
146 $1 Donatas Motiejunas 152 13%
147 $1 Deron Williams 25 76%
148 $1 Boris Diaw 136 9%
149 $1 Shabazz Muhammad Unranked 52%
150 $1 Evan Fournier 141 21%
151 $1 Greivis Vasquez 156 5%
152 $1 Gerald Green 124 46%
153 $1 O.J. Mayo 143 10%
154 $1 Ronnie Price 163 1%
155 $1 Tim Hardaway 197 0%
156 $1 Marcus Morris 147 5%
157 $- Norris Cole 180 2%
158 $- Avery Bradley 157 28%
159 $- Jodie Meeks 182 21%
160 $- Dion Waiters 167 11%
161 $- Tyler Zeller 173 16%
162 $- Mike Dunleavy 125 6%
163 $- Carlos Boozer 165 49%
164 $- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 188 25%
165 $- Tiago Splitter 190 3%
166 $- J.R. Smith 137 28%
167 $- John Henson Unranked 6%
168 $- Louis Williams 187 43%
169 $- J.J. Hickson Unranked 6%
170 $- Iman Shumpert 199 7%
171 $- Nene Hilario 155 22%
172 $- Spencer Hawes 186 4%
173 $- Jared Dudley Unranked 8%
174 $- Marvin Williams 184 3%
175 $- Shawne Williams Unranked 2%
176 $- Rodney Stuckey 172 10%
177 $- Nick Young 185 50%
178 $- D.J. Augustin Unranked 4%
179 $- Kirk Hinrich 181 2%
180 $- Kyle O’Quinn Unranked 2%
181 $- Brook Lopez 123 83%
182 $- Marco Belinelli Unranked 3%
183 $- Alan Anderson Unranked 0%
184 $- Vince Carter Unranked 2%
185 $- Hollis Thompson 166 0%
186 $- Larry Sanders 138 15%
187 $- Jason Smith Unranked 1%
188 $- Jonas Jerebko Unranked 1%
189 $- Henry Sims 178 4%
190 $- Amar’e Stoudemire 159 29%
191 $- Luis Scola 177 6%
192 $- Marreese Speights Unranked 24%
193 $- Steve Blake 195 1%
194 $- Miles Plumlee 139 4%
195 $- Rasual Butler 174 3%
196 $- Cole Aldrich Unranked 13%
197 $- Jerryd Bayless Unranked 1%
198 $- Jason Terry Unranked 1%
199 $- Nikola Mirotic Unranked 8%
200 $- Aaron Brooks Unranked 6%