Week 11 was a brutal week in many ways, leading off with Alex Smith’s gruesome injury. But lets take a look at what else happened in that game, and others on the early slate as I post my notes from the Game Pass Rematches. (I usually focus on the early slate games the most, as there are too many to follow closely during that slate, plus usually my Bengals are playing in that slot and I focus on them.)

Texans @ Redskins

Texans:

• Jordan Akins had a nice third down conversion on the Texans first drive. His snap count isn’t high, but he could be more of the offense going forward. The Texans used a third-round pick on him this year.
• Lamar Miller found plenty of room to run early in the first quarter.
• Pump fake freezes the safety on the Hopkins touchdown.
• J.J. Watt lost a sack due to defensive holding in the secondary.
• Coutee was open on Watson’s 2nd quarter interception, but he couldn’t get any power on the throw.
• HOU follows up their second INT with a sack, which ultimately leads to a missed field goal.
• Alfred Blue getting a lot of work early in the third quarter.
• Hopkins catch + fumble in the third quarter kills the first drive of the third quarter – pretty close call, reviewed, “.. the call stands …” – not a case of the call being confirmed.
• Watson’s footwork was bad on both of his interceptions.
• Twice had to settle for field goals after getting the ball inside the 10.

Hope you didn’t bet the under. The total of 105 was the third most in NFL history.

Even the defenses chipped in with three TDs of their own. I sat the Rams defense in a couple leagues, leaving 25 points on my bench. And congratulations to the Chiefs who became the first team ever to score 50-plus and lose.

I was 6-2 ATS through the first wave of games and, coming off a 9-4-1 Week 10, felt like I had the NFL tamed. The only negative were my DFS lineups that stacked Marcus Mariota and Corey Davis, but Mariota got hurt, I had the Colts ATS and there would almost certainly have been plenty of garbage time for the duo in the second half but for the injury. Then the second wave of games kicked off.

There are two kinds of people in this world, those who hate Mike McCarthy and those who bet against him. It was nice to be in the latter group for a change.

I’m doing this in part as an excuse to create a Sporcle Quiz for the first time, stealing Liss’s inspiration to do so, and because I only have a few quick takes looking at this week’s slate.

Survivor

You should read Chris Liss’s weekly Survivor Article for real analysis, including the math underpinnings for each week, but I have a few of my own thoughts.

• This is the most difficult Survivor slate in recent weeks. After the carnage of the first few weeks of the season, it’s been pretty easy to coast along until last week, when the Jets, Eagles, Patriots and Falcons knocked out a third of the remaining entries in one of my double-elimination pools. The Saints are the biggest favorite on the board, at -8.5 points in most places, followed by the Chargers at -7.5. Making matters worse, the Saints are up against the defending Super Bowl Champs in the Eagles, who are essentially in a “must-win” game after falling to 4-5 last Sunday night. There are no other teams favored by six points or higher. The next two highest favorites are Pittsburgh on the road at Jacksonville, and Arizona (!) at home against the Raiders.
• I’ve decided to rule out Arizona, for a couple of reasons. One, I can’t escape the feeling that taking them is akin to taking the Jets last week against the Bills – merely taking a team because of their opponent is not sound enough, not in a season where there don’t appear to be “special bad” teams like the Browns were last year, though the Raiders lately have put that theory to the test. But the Cardinals are just 2-7 in their own right, have scored the fewest points in the NFL this season so far (though they have a game in hand over the Bills, who score at a lower rate per game, but only barely!), and have been outscored by 101 points in total this year. Moreover, in my double-elimination pool, not a single participant has used them yet, both eliminated and among the 27 still alive. Thus, I think that their ownership rate will skew higher than 11.9% rate that they’re being picked across all pools at OfficeFootballPool.com.

The 49ers couldn’t cover Odell Beckham. Had Eli Manning gotten more air under a couple passes, Beckham might have had a monster game. Even so, it was a nice comeback by the Giants, aided by some timely defensive penalties on the final drive.