This article is part of our Beat the Cap series.
All matchups aren't created equal, and finding scheduling mismatches is an important part of daily hockey. Whether it is identifying trap games, soft spots in long road trips or picking on an injury-riddled team, there are as many favorable matchups based on the schedule are there are statistical mismatches.
However, just like a plus-statistical matchup, a favorable schedule spot doesn't guarantee anything. They still play the game and even the sharpest leans fail. It doesn't mean there isn't value in concerning yourself with the schedule. It just means limiting your exposure to a particular lean or two isn't always the best approach, especially on nights with a full slate of games.
Four particular games come to mind. One game played out as planned, and three did not. Monday, Feb. 9, the Blackhawks hosted the Coyotes, which came in as a classic trap game. The Blackhawks were on the wrong end of back-to-back games, but had beaten the high-powered Blues the day before and bested the Jets -- who have been a thorn in the Hawks' side all season -- two games prior.
The Coyotes entered the game as losers of two consecutive games with just two total goals. Still, while everything pointed to stacking the Blackhawks, as there were only four games on the schedule, it didn't pan out. Chicago played down to Arizona's level and lost the game 3-2 in a shootout.
Saturday night, another perfect matchup lined up schedule-wise, as the Avalanche hosted the Stars, with Dallas on the wrong end of back-to-back games. Even more enticing about this spot for Colorado was that Dallas lost three regulars to injuries the night before, most notably Tyler Seguin.
The Avalanche had lost the previous four, but Dallas entered the game allowing 3.15 goals per game. Colorado had also only played once over the past six games, whereas Dallas had played three games during the same time frame. This game played out as expected, with the Avalanche winning in convincing fashion 4-1. The final tidbit which pushed this lean over the top was Jhonas Enroth making his first start for the Stars after relocating from Buffalo.
The game between the Capitals and Ducks on Sunday, Feb. 15, was another prime mismatch on paper as far as the schedule was concerned. Washington lost the night before to the Kings, and it was the Capitals' second game in less than 24 hours. Add Anaheim's 19-6-3 home ice record, and consecutive off-days, and this appeared to be a slam dunk.
Washington left with a 5-3 win, and most impressively, they battled back from one-goal deficits twice in the first period. Additionally, Washington had backup Justin Peters in goal, which was another significant plus for Anaheim.
The last example which stuck out over the recent weeks was Monday's game between Minnesota and Vancouver. The Wild entered the game with an 8-0-1 record, and the Canucks would be playing without two top-four defensemen while also starting backup goalie Eddie Lack.
Savvy daily gamers would have noted the Wild beginning to slide in their previous game, though. Carolina outshot the Wild 27-24 and scored three goals. Although Minnesota escaped with the win, it was a sign of things to come. Vancouver limited the Wild to 22 shots on goal and just 13 shots through the first two periods of the game. Vancouver won 3-2.
While there are certainly plenty more examples over the past two weeks, these stuck out. Avoiding the right players is just as important as whom you select, and identifying matchups is an important component of the process. Over leaning because of a favorable schedule spot can backfire, though. Utilizing a single high-priced player or value play won't sink your lineup, but stacking multiple players could.
Tread carefully with stacks, as you're more likely to hit when you have exposure to multiple favorable matchups, especially in cash games.
What to look for:
Inferior backup goalies: The Avalanche landed in a second favorable spot Monday when they faced Coyotes backup Mike McKenna. It was McKenna's first start of the season, and he allowed five goals.
Long road trips: Boston has dropped two consecutive games in western Canada. While their game Wednesday against the Oilers projects favorably, Games 4 and 5 of the road trip in St. Louis and Chicago could be disastrous.
Run of tough opponents: Columbus will finish this week with consecutive road games against Pittsburgh, Montreal and the Rangers. No. 1 goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is unlikely to return, and Columbus allows the fifth most goals per game (3.11) in the league.
Fatigue: The Islanders have a league-high five games this week, and they'll play 15 games over just 26 days in February. They're playing well, but there will be favorable matchups ahead with such a busy schedule.
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