Last week, we looked at the fantasy impact of rookies in their first season in the big leagues and saw that more often than not, they feel to meet expectations. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the latest ADP report from MockDraftCentral.com and see where they are going and some thoughts on each. The reports are compiled using a sample size of 374 mixed 5 x 5 leagues over the past two weeks.
Matt Moore - Current ADP = 99. He has been drafted as high as 59th overall and has been the 29th pitcher off the board. Michael Pineda, Tommy Hanson and Adam Wainwright are the three pitchers ahead of him while Matt Garza, Gio Gonzalez and Johnny Cueto are behind him. Moore is the only fourth starter in that group as he will pitch behind James Shields, David Price and Jeremy Hellickson in the rotation. He is also likely the only one that will face some kind of innings/pitch count cap during the season as the Rays tend to do as they work for the present and the future especially now that he is under a long-term deal. I get the upside chance with Moore, but even as a guy that bleeds the Tampa Bay colors, I am not taking Moore over Garza in a draft. Garza is likely on his way to a team with more consistent run support, has a strong skill set, and really took off in the NL last season. He is a lock for 200 innings and 30-plus starts; I can't say the same thing for Moore. It was just this time last season when Hellickson looked like a world-beater and his 2011 did not go as well as expected but some very fortunate BABIP & LOB luck hid the struggles.
Yu Darvish - Current ADP = 122. You know I don't consider players of his ilk rookies, but Garza, Gonzalez and Brandon Beachy are in front of him while Chris Carpenter, Jordan Zimmermann and Cory Luebke are behind him. All we have is scouting reports and video of him, but there is at least a case to be made to take him where he is falling so far but to take him as high as 68 as someone has? I'll wait.
Bryce Harper - Current ADP = 212. He has been drafted as high as 102 in the 65 percent of drafts he has been picked in thus far. He is coming in behind Martin Prado, Josh Willingham and Brandon Belt while ahead of Colby Rasmus, Mike Trout and Carlos Quentin. Just because Davey Johnson gave Dwight Gooden a chance to make this kind of jump nearly 30 years ago (yes, you are getting old) does not necessarily mean that he is ready to do it again here with Harper. Trout has the same risks with the same ADP but he's been taken as high as 116. The Angels' depth chart is still a crowded mess so taking Trout as one of your five outfielders in a 12-team mixed league means getting a good replacement level player to fill in until the Angels clear up the depth chart if they do not clear that up before the season starts.
Julio Teheran - Current ADP = 215. He is only being taken in eight percent of leagues, but his ADP still comes in front of the likes of Jair Jurrjens, Edwin Jackson, Gavin Floyd and Bud Norris. I love (x3) Teheran's upside, but I am still more comfortable drafting the knowns around him. After all, Ricky Nolasco's ADP is eight spots lower and we have seen his upside, and his downside, demonstrated at the major league level.
Dayan Viciedo - Current ADP = 226. He has been taken as high as 181, but has only been drafted in 40 percent of the drafts. He comes in one spot behind Delmon Young and ahead of Chris Heisey, the injured Allen Craig and the risky Grady Sizemore. I really like Viciedo's power potential in his park, but the knowns around him are pretty strong. Jason Kubel is going five spots after him and I would rather take Kubel in Chase Field because the Diamondbacks didn't sign the guy to sit him on the bench much.
Yonder Alonso - Current ADP = 229. He has gone as high as 157 in drafts, but the park factors in Petco are too much to ignore. Again, I would rather have Kubel, David Murphy, Eric Thames, and Luke Scott who are all currently below Alonso on the ADP charts.
Jesus Montero - Current ADP = 182. He is going in 86 percent of drafts even though he is only DH-eligible in leagues that are holding to the positional requirements. He is being drafted 38 spots ahead of Vladimir Guerrero, 43 ahead of Johnny Damon, 44 ahead of Bobby Abreu and 52 ahead of Adam Dunn. Most abhorrent to me - 53 spots ahead of Edwin Encarnacion! In all seriousness, outside of E5's spot, Damon would be the only one I have a problem with and that is only if he lands the DH role in the short porch of Yankee Stadium. It is unknown whether Seattle is going to attempt to give Montero the five games behind the plate that all fantasy leaguers want him to get in 2012, but I would take Encarnacion at 230 eight days a week over taking Montero at 178.
Anthony Rizzo - Current ADP = 236. Rizzo is a risk because there is no guarantee he starts the year with the Cubs and he showed major contact issues in his time with the Padres last season. Getting out of Petco certainly helps, but enough for his ADP to be 70 spots above Jesus Guzman? Rizzo is being taken in just three percent of drafts, but Guzman is only going in less than one percent so far?
Devin Mesoraco - Current ADP = 239. He is going in 84 percent of drafts so far. Kurt Suzuki, Carlos Ruiz and Jonathan Lucroy are ahead of him while A.J. Pierzynski, John Buck, and Salvador Perez are behind him. Buster Posey has most recently busted the bell curve for rookie catchers, but as a rule, most of them struggle as rookies. He has been taken as high as 171 in drafts, well ahead of someone with a proven bat like Nick Hundley. If Hundley could only be freed of the shackles of hitting at Petco…
Zack Cozart - Current ADP = 245. He is being taken after Marco Scutaro, Ian Desmond, and Alcides Escobar but ahead of Rafael Furcal, Cliff Pennington, and Alex Gonzalez. Scutaro's move to Colorado and picking up second-base eligibility is a strong plus for someone nine spots in front of Cozart while Furcal and Pennington offer stolen base potential behind Cozart. Cozart also had elbow surgery on his non-throwing arm late in 201 which makes him a risky pick, even at that slot.
Drew Pomeranz - Current ADP = 247. Some feel the Rockies are going to put Pomeranz and Alex White down in Triple-A to start the season, but the recent acquisition and then trading of Kevin Slowey sends mixed signals on that front. He is currently going ahead of James McDonald, Jeff Niemann, Randy Wolf and Homer Bailey and I would rather take my chances with those four than a guy that may only get 20ish starts in 2012 in a hostile environment.
Tyler Pastornicky - Current ADP = 275. The Braves recently added Jack Wilson, but that should not necessarily spell doom for Pastornicky's chances in 2012. That said, if he makes the team, he would likely occupy the eighth spot in the lineup and thus have to deal with being pitched around in favor of facing the pitcher hitting behind him. There is stolen base potential here and he is still being drafted ahead of regulars such as Jason Bartlett (316) and Brendan Ryan (455). He doesn't even have one plate appearance in the majors and has just 117 above Double-A, but he has shown an ability to get on base and is a strong contact hitter. Low risk, low reward for him compared to guys like Ryan and Bartlett who could pick up 15 steals with full-time play again.
Tim Beckham - Current ADP = 281. Why? 111 plate appearances above Double-A and je walked just three times while striking out 29 times. The only way he sees the major leagues in 2012 is either in a September callup or an injury to the Sean Rodriguez/Reid Brignac platoon. Drafting Beckham is a wasted roster spot right now.