This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
In this week's Regan's Rumblings, I will take a look at a handful of former stars, top prospects, and some low-owned players that could help fantasy owners down the stretch. Some of these guys are due back from the disabled list soon, some later, and others are prospects expected to get the call at any moment. In deeper leagues of course, most of these guys are probably not available, so we'll look to dig a bit deeper next week.
Felix Hernandez (SP-SEA)
In a relatively shallow 10-team dynasty league, I currently have Clayton Kershaw, Mark Melancon, Stephen Strasburg, and Felix Hernandez all on the DL and the league only has a two-man DL. At this point, I'm seriously considering dropping King Felix to free up a roster spot. He'll probably be picked up quickly given his history, but we know this isn't the same guy who was once good for 230 innings and a similar number of strikeouts. Felix made 25 starts last year, posting a 3.82 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, and he's regressed more this year to 4.28 and 1.36. His velocity is down, though oddly his 8.43 K/9 is exactly his career mark. It's amazing to consider he's still just 31, but after so many years of 190+ innings (10 consecutive seasons from 2006-2015), it's clear that his best days are well behind him. In 12-team mixed leagues, he's droppable at this point, though I'd probably wait for his latest MRI results before cutting bait
In this week's Regan's Rumblings, I will take a look at a handful of former stars, top prospects, and some low-owned players that could help fantasy owners down the stretch. Some of these guys are due back from the disabled list soon, some later, and others are prospects expected to get the call at any moment. In deeper leagues of course, most of these guys are probably not available, so we'll look to dig a bit deeper next week.
Felix Hernandez (SP-SEA)
In a relatively shallow 10-team dynasty league, I currently have Clayton Kershaw, Mark Melancon, Stephen Strasburg, and Felix Hernandez all on the DL and the league only has a two-man DL. At this point, I'm seriously considering dropping King Felix to free up a roster spot. He'll probably be picked up quickly given his history, but we know this isn't the same guy who was once good for 230 innings and a similar number of strikeouts. Felix made 25 starts last year, posting a 3.82 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, and he's regressed more this year to 4.28 and 1.36. His velocity is down, though oddly his 8.43 K/9 is exactly his career mark. It's amazing to consider he's still just 31, but after so many years of 190+ innings (10 consecutive seasons from 2006-2015), it's clear that his best days are well behind him. In 12-team mixed leagues, he's droppable at this point, though I'd probably wait for his latest MRI results before cutting bait in deeper formats. Edit: news broke Tuesday that shoulder bursitis will keep Felix out for several weeks. Time to cut bait in at least shallower formats, and probably in most non-keeper leagues.
Ronald Acuna (OF-ATL)
At this point, Acuna is probably baseball's #1 prospect, surpassing the likes of Yoan Moncada and others. Acuna is all of 19 years of age, and the Braves keep promoting him and he keeps doing BETTER at the level to which he's promoted. This year:
High-A: 28 games, .814 OPS, 3 HR, 14 SB
Double-A: 57 games, .894 OPS, 9 HR, 19 SB
Triple-A: 25 games, 1.009 OPS, 4 HR, 3 SB
Incredibly, Acuna has also improved his walk rate and strikeout rate at each level as well. Acuna played center field and led off in his last start, but he's also seen time in right field and could probably play either quite well. At some point, possibly sooner rather than later, Acuna probably pushes Nick Markakis to a #4 OF role.
Rhys Hoskins (1B-PHI)
Hoskins has scuffled a bit lately, but .281/.385/.568 is still pretty solid. Hoskins has hit 27 homers a year after bashing 38 and most notably, he's cut his K% from 21.2% to 16.1% year over year. When you make that sort of progress in contact rate, that makes it more likely a player won't be as overwhelmed initially with big league pitching. Hoskins has seen some time in the outfield recently, and if that goes well, he could be up within the week according to some reports. Tommy Joseph is in a 1-for-18 slump and has a .307 OBP (and 16 HR) on the year, so Hoskins could potentially eat into Joseph's playing time as well as playing left field.
Mark Melancon (RP-SF)
Melancon has been a huge bust since signing his $60 million deal over the winter, posting a 4.35 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 22 games. Melancon has also blown four of 15 save opportunities and now he's dealing with an elbow injury. His last minor league rehab appearance was ugly as well (0.2 IP, 4 ER), but he could still turn things around and return within the next week or so. That all said, as bad as he's been and even with the uncertainty around his elbow, Melancon is still worth rostering. Closers on bad teams still get save opportunities, and it's not like Melancon is returning to a bullpen with a myriad of alternatives. The current closer is Sam Dyson, who has been better since coming to San Francisco but still has a 6.00 ERA and 1.90 WHIP for the year.
David Dahl (OF-COL)
I'm sure I'm not the only one that was bullish on Dahl prior to the season. Top prospect, plays in Coors Field, and hit .315/.359/.500 in 237 plate appearances for the Rockies last year. This year? Injuries. A stress reaction in his rib cage delayed Dahl's season until July, upon which he found himself in the minors. In Triple-A, Dahl hit just .243/.274/.414 before finding himself back on the DL with back spasms. Even if the latest issue isn't serious, there doesn't appear to be any sort of scenario that finds Dahl back in the big leagues and playing regularly any time soon. Perhaps he's a September call-up, but with the Rockies competing for a Wild Card spot, they are going to play whomever is hitting best and not playing for the future.
Lonnie Chisenhall (OF-CLE)
Chisenhall has been out since July 9 with a calf injury and factoring in a previous concussion injury, Chisenhall has been limited to just 216 plate appearances this season. When healthy however, he's been very good, batting .305/.376/.578 with 12 home runs, so it's unfortunate that he's seeing his playing time limited by injury. Chisenhall has even hit .368/.489/.553 in 38 at-bats versus LHP, so he may have even been headed to full-time RF duty. At this point, the Indians have no idea when he'll be ready to return to the lineup, as he's ill not ready to play in a rehab game. Figure September 1 at best for a return at this point, but in deeper leagues, he's worth burning a DL spot, and as we get more information on a timetable, he could deserve a look in a lot of formats.
Brandon Kintzler (RP-WAS)
I was pretty surprised to see that Kintzler was still 76% owned, even though it's abundantly clear that he's probably third in line for saves behind closer Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. Kintzler has notched 28 saves this year despite a 5.3 K/9 and a 2.4 BB/9 that's regressed from last year's 1.3. Kintzler has survived off an elite 57.8% career ground ball rate, but in terms of the rest of this season, I don't expect he'll receive many (if any) save opportunities. Doolittle has had a couple hiccups this year as reflected in his so-so 3.56 ERA, but Doolittle has five straight scoreless innings with four saves during that timeframe. He's locked in, so even in NL-only leagues, Kintzler's roster spot is probably better used on someone else.
Kyle Barraclough (RP-MIA)
Currently on the DL with a shoulder injury, Barraclough could return to the active roster
sometime in the next week barring any setbacks in his rehab. Barraclough hasn't been as good this year (3.30 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 6.0 BB/9) as last (2.85 ERA, 14.0 K/9, 5.5 BB/9), but the 27-year-old is still viewed as a possible closer of the future in Miami. He obviously has some control issues, but it is worth noting that through his last 22 innings, Barraclough posted a 3.7 BB/9 versus a brutal 8.7 mark in his first 22.1 frames of 2017. With the Marlins 10.5 games back in the Wild Card chase and only Brad Ziegler to leapfrog for closer duties, Barraclough is worth a look if you're scrounging for saves in deeper leagues.
Matt Harvey (SP-NYM)
I'm carrying Harvey on my DL in a relatively shallow league, but I'm not quite sure why. Maybe it's the past success or the cool nickname, but it's tough to see Harvey being of any sort of value this year. Harvey's injury is of the uncommon variety, as it's been called a stress injury of the scapula bone in his pitching shoulder. Apparently, surgery last year to correct thoracic outlet syndrome left Harvey with diminished muscle mass in the right shoulder. He could soon go on a rehab assignment and return to the Mets sometime in mid-to-late August, but unless you think two months was all he needed to grow those muscles and get right, then I wouldn't expect much. He's an interesting stash in a dynasty league, as at this point it's easy to forget how good he was from 2012-2015 (65 starts, 2.53 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9).
Jeurys Familia (RP-NYM)
A 15-game domestic violence suspension and shoulder injury have limited Familia to just 11 games (9.1 innings) this year, but it's becoming apparent that he's on track to return soon, perhaps as early as next week. Familia should head out on a rehab assignment soon and could return to the Mets' bullpen next week. Currently A.J. Ramos is acting as the Mets' closer, but given the 94 saves Familia recorded in 2015-2016, he should quickly return to closing once he gets his feet wet. There is a bit of uncertainty surrounding his injury (blood clot in the shoulder), but if his rehab outings go well and the velocity is there, the big-league success should follow.
Aaron Hicks (OF-NYY)
Hicks is just 35% owned in Yahoo leagues, but according to manager Joe Girardi, Hicks could return from an oblique injury this weekend. Hicks was having a breakout season prior to going down, batting .290/.398/.515 with 10 homers and seven stolen bases in 242 plate appearances. Much of the improvement has come from the right side of the plate where Hicks has a .946 OPS versus a .484 mark a year ago. He's also improved his walk rate year-over-year from 8.3% to 15.3% in what has been a promising age-27 season. Now on to playing time. Aaron Judge has come back to Earth, but he's obviously locked in to right field. Brett Gardner has a .354 OBP along with 19 home runs and 15 stolen bases. There's also Jacoby Ellsbury and Clint Frazier, so this is a crowded scenario. Frazier is in a 9-for-51 skid, so he's probably the odd man out. Hicks may not play every day, but his cannon of an arm and performance of the plate should give him the bulk of the CF at-bats…we think.
Garrett Richards (SP-LAA)
Arm issues have led to Richards making just seven starts since his solid 2015 season, but he's now throwing bullpen sessions and could return later this month. Richards averaged 96.5 mph with his fastball in his lone start of the year on April 5, so while he's a poor bet to come back and make 10 dominant starts, he's still worth a look in deeper leagues. Improbably, the Angels are just three games out of the second AL Wild Card spot, though they would still have to leapfrog five teams to make the playoffs. The Angels won't rush him back and risk his long-term health, but a healthy Richards certainly helps the rotation.
Tyler Glasnow (SP-PIT)
Glasnow has been awful in his two shots at sticking in a big-league rotation, especially this year. In 12 starts, Glasnow has a 7.45 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, solid 8.3 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, and a 2.0 HR/9 in 54.1 innings. Glasnow though is still just 23, and since returning to Triple-A, Glasnow has a 1.61 ERA in 10 starts with an elite 13.5 K/9 and improved 3.7 BB/9. He's walked just one hitter in each of his last two starts, and with the Pirates out of the race, I'd expect him back up for the season any day now. Lots of prospect fail initially and then go on to big league success, and I think Glasnow is going to follow that path.
Brent Honeywell (SP-TB)
Honeywell and Walker Buehler are the best pitching prospects currently at the Triple-A level, with Honeywell probably more likely to contribute as a starter at the big-league level this year. Is he worth a roster stash right now? In many formats, definitely. In 12-team mixed leagues? Depending on how many roster spots you have, probably. Honeywell struggled a bit upon his promotion from Double-A to Triple-A, but in his last five starts, Honeywell has a 1.33 ERA, with a 39:6 K:BB in 27 innings. The Rays' rotation is a bit crowded right now, but Honeywell should force the issue at some point this month.
Greg Bird (1B-NYY)
Rumor has it that Bird indeed is still alive and still employed in the Yankees organization. Bird debut to a promising .261/.343/.529 slash line in 46 games for the Yankees in 2015, but his MLB body of work since then consists of six hits in 60 at-bats. The latest injury is an ankle after he missed 2016 with a shoulder injury and Bird is struggling to get back on the field. He's now hit in the batting cage and reports no issues with the ankle, but at this point, seeing him in the big leagues prior to September seems unlikely. On the plus side, first base is currently occupied by Chase Headley and his six home runs, so there is at least greater than a 0% chance that Bird sees meaningful playing time sometime in September. I just wouldn't count on it. Longer term, he should get another shot at full-time duty, but expect the Yankees to give him some competition.
