This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Not quite that simple.
Factors such as the quality of the defense behind said pitcher, the ballpark, and simply how good the pitcher is also impact BABIP. Plus, historically some pitchers have shown the ability to maintain a consistently-low (or high) BABIP, so are they getting "lucky" every year? Maybe once or twice, but witness SD's Chris Young's BABIPs the past four years:
2006 – .237
2007 – .252
2008 – .266
2009 – .261
Isn't it safe to say Young has a different BABIP ceiling if you will than other guys?
Isn't it also safe to say that Ubaldo Jimenez's stuff is so filthy that he induces more weakly hit routine grounders than the average pitcher?
Anyway, let's take a look at a handful of guys on both sides of the ledger in 2010:
Note that the stats below are as of Tuesday's games.
LOW BABIPs
NAME | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | HR/FB | ERA | K/9 |
Jeff Niemann, Rays | .226 | 14.2 | 45.1 | 40.8 | 8.4 | 2.48 | 5.7 |
Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies | .229 | 12.6 | 54.7 | 32.7 | 2.9 | 0.93 | 8.0 |
Matt Cain, Giants | .231 | 18.6 | 34.7 | 46.7 | 3.5 | 2.11 | 6.4 |
Tim Hudson, Braves | .233 | 11.5 | 66.0 |
Not quite that simple.
Factors such as the quality of the defense behind said pitcher, the ballpark, and simply how good the pitcher is also impact BABIP. Plus, historically some pitchers have shown the ability to maintain a consistently-low (or high) BABIP, so are they getting "lucky" every year? Maybe once or twice, but witness SD's Chris Young's BABIPs the past four years:
2006 – .237
2007 – .252
2008 – .266
2009 – .261
Isn't it safe to say Young has a different BABIP ceiling if you will than other guys?
Isn't it also safe to say that Ubaldo Jimenez's stuff is so filthy that he induces more weakly hit routine grounders than the average pitcher?
Anyway, let's take a look at a handful of guys on both sides of the ledger in 2010:
Note that the stats below are as of Tuesday's games.
LOW BABIPs
NAME | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | HR/FB | ERA | K/9 |
Jeff Niemann, Rays | .226 | 14.2 | 45.1 | 40.8 | 8.4 | 2.48 | 5.7 |
Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies | .229 | 12.6 | 54.7 | 32.7 | 2.9 | 0.93 | 8.0 |
Matt Cain, Giants | .231 | 18.6 | 34.7 | 46.7 | 3.5 | 2.11 | 6.4 |
Tim Hudson, Braves | .233 | 11.5 | 66.0 | 22.5 | 10.9 | 2.44 | 4.0 |
Doug Fister, Mariners | .240 | 13.0 | 52.5 | 34.5 | 6.5 | 2.45 | 4.1 |
Jamie Moyer, Phillies | .240 | 16.3 | 45.4 | 38.3 | 10.9 | 3.98 | 4.1 |
Ted Lilly, Cubs | .240 | 17.8 | 33.3 | 48.9 | 9.1 | 3.28 | 6.0 |
Livan Hernandez, Nationals | .242 | 17.0 | 45.6 | 37.3 | 7.8 | 2.22 | 3.7 |
Jonathan Sanchez, Giants | .243 | 16.2 | 38.7 | 45.1 | 5.1 | 2.63 | 9.0 |
Mat Latos, Padres | .247 | 13.3 | 48.9 | 37.8 | 11.3 | 3.26 | 7.6 |
David Price, Rays | .248 | 18.7 | 45.8 | 35.5 | 7.9 | 2.29 | 6.4 |
Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks | .249 | 17.5 | 37.0 | 45.5 | 14.6 | 3.46 | 7.8 |
Jason Vargas, Mariners | .254 | 14.7 | 34.8 | 50.4 | 6.2 | 3.06 | 5.6 |
Mitch Talbot, Indians | .255 | 17.8 | 47.9 | 34.3 | 9.9 | 3.54 | 3.9 |
Colby Lewis, Rangers | .256 | 17.7 | 39.7 | 42.6 | 9.0 | 3.40 | 8.3 |
Ryan Dempster, Cubs | .256 | 11.6 | 48.4 | 40.0 | 13.3 | 3.76 | 8.5 |
You may have been watching some other guy pitch on Tuesday, but don't overlook the two-hit shutout Jeff Niemann spun against the Blue Jays. If you recall last year, Niemann had to compete for a rotation spot in the spring, ended up obviously winning the slot, and subsequently led the team in wins in 2009. This year was the first time he'd had the security of one of the five slots, and he's apparently settled in just fine. That Niemann doesn't miss a lot of bats plus entering the season with a BABIP 80 points higher than his current mark makes him an obvious candidate for regression. Still, there's enough to like for me to forecast a sub-4.00 ERA the rest of the way.
Ubaldo Jimenez has never posted a BABIP this low, and we are pretty sure a 0.93 ERA isn't sustainable, but there's no pitcher in baseball I'd rather own than Jimenez (sorry Stephen).
Matt Cain has been great lately, but at the same time, his strikeout rate has regressed the last couple years and he surrenders a lot of flyballs. Factor in a relatively high LD% and a bit of luck on balls in play and clearly Cain is in line for some regression, but then again, you probably figured that.
Tim Hudson was never a big strikeout guy, but now at 34 and post-Tommy John, he still averages 91 mph on his fastball, but the strikeouts continue to come less frequently. What he does better now than perhaps ever though is keeping hitters off balance and inducing ground balls. Hudson's GB% and LD% both lead all major league starting pitchers, allowing him to let the Braves defense take over. So that means the Braves have a great defense, right? Not so fast. From a UZR/150 perspective, the Braves infielders rate as follows:
UZR/150 | MLB RANK | ||||||
1B | -18.5 | 30 | |||||
2B | -6 | 20 | |||||
SS | 0.9 | 14 | |||||
3B | 4.2 | 13 |
NAME | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | HR/FB | ERA | K/9 |
Justin Masterson, Indians | .384 | 19.5 | 61.6 | 18.9 | 14.3 | 5.46 | 8.3 |
Gavin Floyd, White Sox | .369 | 20.1 | 46.6 | 33.3 | 9.6 | 6.18 | 7.7 |
Zach Duke, Pirates | .359 | 21.2 | 49.8 | 29.0 | 14.3 | 5.43 | 5.8 |
Wandy Rodriguez, Astros | .354 | 21.9 | 48.9 | 29.2 | 7.8 | 4.95 | 6.1 |
Brian Matusz, Orioles | .353 | 19.9 | 33.6 | 46.4 | 7.1 | 5.10 | 7.7 |
Aaron Harang, Reds | .351 | 24.6 | 41.7 | 33.8 | 14.3 | 5.43 | 7.2 |
Dan Haren, Diamondbacks | .351 | 17.8 | 43.6 | 38.6 | 15.7 | 4.83 | 9.0 |
Francisco Liriano, Twins | .349 | 18.80 | 49.5 | 31.7 | 3.1 | 3.10 | 9.4 |
Rick Porcello, Tigers | .345 | 17.5 | 48.9 | 33.6 | 5.2 | 5.25 | 4.1 |
James Shields, Rays | .344 | 23.5 | 42.6 | 33.9 | 14.1 | 3.64 | 8.6 |
Randy Wells, Cubs | .343 | 24.5 | 47.2 | 28.3 | 10.0 | 4.86 | 6.8 |
Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays | .341 | 22.0 | 39.6 | 38.4 | 7.9 | 5.48 | 10.4 |
Scott Feldman, Rangers | .336 | 19.8 | 41.3 | 38.9 | 9.2 | 5.73 | 5.0 |
Joel Pineiro, Angels | .328 | 16.9 | 55.5 | 27.6 | 11.4 | 5.23 | 5.7 |
Brett Myers, Astros | .327 | 20.4 | 49.0 | 30.6 | 8.0 | 3.01 | 7.3 |
Nick Blackburn, Twins | .327 | 17.8 | 47.3 | 34.9 | 10.0 | 5.21 | 2.3 |
A lot of groundballs, a fair amount of strikeout and a high ERA. Sounds like a buy-low opportunity. That is Justin Masterson. I own Masterson in a couple leagues, though he's riding my bench until he is able to prove my confidence in him is justified.
Gavin Floyd, a former No. 4 overall pick, has been one of my more frustrating pitchers since the day he was drafted. Spurts of brilliance following by 3-7-7-7-5-2 outings last left many a fantasy owner frustrated. Floyd's talent is far superior to his 6.18 ERA, but if you are too frustrated to buy low, I understand.
I just traded for Zach Duke's 2009 card in a Strat-O-Matic league, but over last year, Duke's velocity is down and his command has regressed, so it's hard to be too optimistic here. He's a bit better than his ERA, but a 4.75 ERA the rest of the way is about his ceiling.
Wandy Rodriguez has taken a step back this year, not throwing as hard while striking out fewer batters and walking more. He's also allowing a lot of line drives, so the near-5.00 ERA is pretty easy to explain. Don't discount how good he was in 2009, but at the same time, I'm pessimistic that his ERA is going to drop rapidly.
I'm a huge Brian Matusz fan, but he's probably a couple years away from fulfilling his vast potential. Solid but not spectacular K rate, a few too many flyballs and simply a bit too much inexperience. The non-Strasburg hype has died down, so it may be a good buying opportunity, but don't expect a payoff until at least mid-2011.
Aaron Harang – Tired of him showing up on these lists. I'll just say that I'll be avoiding any Reds starter not named Cueto or Leake.
Dan Haren will be fine simply because he's Dan Haren. The floundering D-backs are rumored to be sellers this summer, and Haren could bring a nice haul. Maybe us writers aren't supposed to be impartial, but let me go ahead and propose a Haren to the Dodgers deal for Ethan Martin, Kyle Russell and Dee Gordon. Get it done Ned Colletti.
The Francisco Liriano hype has died down, but the fact he's able to maintain a 3.10 ERA despite a .349 BABIP is impressive. Liriano is throwing harder than he has since 2006, and he has a 2.6 BB/9, so he might actually be a bit undervalued right now.
All throughout Rick Porcello's minor league career we heard about how the Tigers were babying his arm, so don't expect strikeout rate to be much of anything. It's 2010, so shouldn't the glove be about off by now? Porcello still has immense upside, but clearly the 4.1 K/9 and 5.10 ERA are both disappointments. On a more positive note, Porcello's slider has shown improvement this year and is now a plus pitch (thanks again FanGraphs), so look for a breakout, but likely not until 2011.
James Shields – we've seen enough here to have confidence in what we're going to get from him, high LD% aside.
Randy Wells had just three quality starts in his last eight outings and could be in danger of losing his rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny. That sounds unlikely given Wells' 3.05 ERA a year ago, but recall that ERA came with a 5.7 K/9, so the lack of dominance appears to be catching up to him.
The rest of the group: Re: Brandon Morrow – I'm not discounting anyone with a double-digit K/9 rate. I am buying. … Scott Feldman – exhibit A on why you don't buy into a guy based on win totals (see Saunders, Joe if you remain unconvinced). … Joel Pineiro – more strikeouts, but also more walks, line drives and fly balls. He'll be his usual and mediocre self the rest of the way. … Brett Myers – five runs over his last four starts. I'll buy but I won't be that thrilled about it. … Nick Blackburn – 2.3 K/9? Really? Pretty sure Kyle Gibson would be a better pitcher NOW.