MLB Barometer: All Betts Are On

MLB Barometer - All Betts Are On

If you're still following along at this point of the season, you're either in the hunt for your league's championship, despise fantasy football or are a devoted student of the game, looking to store away lessons of this season in preparation for next. One of things that never ceases to amaze me is how fantasy production can come out of nowhere - undrafted and off the waiver wires, sometimes for pennies on the dollar. The players that fit that bill this year include Josh Harrison (PIT), Danny Santana (MIN), Stephen Vogt (OAK), Kennys Vargas (MIN), Seth Smith (SD) and Steve Pearce (BAL).

Sometimes these surprising surgers are past their prime bench hitters like Pearce or former prospects turned Triple-A dwellers that have retooled their swings like J.D. Martinez. Finding these players before the season starts is similar to a needle in a haystack. There are hundreds of prospects within the different levels of the minors, college and abroad. Not to take anything away from fantasy football, which is great in its own right, but fantasy baseball is much harder, especially when it comes to free agent acquisition. In football, you know if Jamaal Charles gets hurt, Knile Davis or another running back on the depth chart will step in his place, and you know exactly who to spend your FAAB money on and what his replacement value is worth. Skills are no doubt important, but opportunity is the name of the beast in football.

Baseball is much streakier and the season much, much longer. A waiver wire player's streaks, playing time opportunity and lineup spot can be very volatile, and timing is of the utmost importance to correctly ride the waves and avoid the troughs. So how can you spot that four-leaf clover, and when is the right time to jump on them? The best fantasy managers in the NFBC are the ones I have to fight tooth and nail with for players like Seth Smith the moment you feel that MLB pulse within a fresh playing opportunity - because the following week, that player's value has skyrocketed and now you have to second-guess your high bid amount. Meanwhile, the player's value may have already set sail, and you just paid 5x the right amount for someone who is already cooling off.

You've got to strike while the iron's hot - strike early and do it for cheap. If you end up being wrong, so be it. You've paid almost nothing to do so, but you may have just landed a true fantasy contributor, like a Josh Harrison. Pride has no place in fantasy baseball waivers. Dropping a player you just picked up last week and admitting you are wrong is part of our game - and our game is an unpredictable one.

Working the waiver wire early and often is essential to fantasy baseball success, especially in deeper leagues. If you're following promotions to the majors, lineup fluctuations, box scores and even the minor leagues to some degree, you're feeling the pulse of the game - which will allow you to make your FAAB decisions ever so swiftly, wisely and confidently.

RISERS

Buster Posey (C, SF) - In his hometown of San Francisco, they call him M-V-Posey - and for good reason. Posey has been on one of the hottest streaks in all of baseball. Since August 1, Posey is hitting .383 with 8 HR, 27 RBI and 25 runs scored - all in 128 at-bats. Over the last two weeks, that's .619 with 18 RBI. The 27-year-old has already surpassed most of last season's offensive stats and has reached the 20-HR mark for the second time in his career. Posey's batting average has ballooned up to .310 - good for fourth in the National League. Despite a dip in BB% (7.7% now, double-digits last two seasons), Posey is one of baseball's most disciplined hitters and is striking out less than 12% of the time for the second year in a row. The Giants will continue to lean on Posey down the stretch as they chase the Dodgers for the NL West crown.

Juan Lagares (OF, NYM) - Lagares appears to have settled in nicely as the Mets leadoff hitter. Lagares has hit the basepaths hard lately - six stolen bases last week to go along with a .370 average. Over 124 at-bats in the last five weeks, Lagares has scored 17 runs, driven in 16 and hit .290. Lagares has benefitted from a .346 BABIP and strikes out about 20% of the time, but makes for a nice stretch-drive FAAB pickup for fantasy owners who are looking to target specific categories - namely runs and stolen bases. The six stolen bases last week may be a tad fluky - Lagares has not run all that much in his career (minor league high of 21 in 547 PA in Double-A two years ago), but he does have the green light from Terry Collins, who wants him to be more aggressive on the basepaths. Unfortunately, we don't get fantasy points for great defense as Lagares was August's defensive player of the month.

Mookie Betts (OF, BOS) - Mookie was all the hype and then some, before his call-up in late June. Betts spent about two weeks with the big club and struggled out of the gate (8-37, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 CS) before getting sent down on July 13. Betts was recalled to the big club in early August and only began to get comfortable at the plate towards the end of last month. Betts has stepped up his game over his last 13 games - .327 with 3 HR, 12 R, 9 RBI and 2 SB. In week 23, Betts hit .370 and scored eight runs. Since many fantasy owners lost faith in Betts' 2013 after his demotion, he was available on the waiver wire and picked up for single-digit FAAB dollars. Despite playing strictly in the outfield, Betts is eligible at MI in NFBC and Yahoo! Leagues. Betts is hitting .357 against lefties and only .232 against righties, but is only 21-years-old and has a bright future ahead of him. Betts' stock will no doubt rise over the offseason and it's very likely that he won't come cheap in drafts next season.

Carlos Carrasco (SP, CLE) - It feels like we're always talking about Cleveland Indians starters. First was the meteoric rise of ace Corey Kluber, then the inconsistencies of Trevor Bauer and now all eyes are on baseball's hottest pitcher over the last few weeks. Carrasco won the Indians' last rotation spot out of spring training and struggled through four starts - nine walks and a 6.46 ERA - before being relegated to middle relief. Carrasco was one of the American League's most reliable middle relievers until his return to the rotation on August 10 where he threw five scoreless against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. Since then, pure dyn-o-mite. Over his six starts since returning to the rotation - 4 W, 0.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 42 K in 38 IP. In fact, his earned runs are binary code - either one or zero earned runs allowed in each start. Of course, Carrasco cannot possibly sustain such Kershaw-ian like numbers, but his fantasy owners will take it. Carrasco might have his hands full against the Tigers in Detroit this week, but then gets to face the Houston Astros in week 25.

James Paxton (SP, SEA) - Paxton is another solid lefty arm who will be smack dab in the middle of our fantasy radars next year. Paxton hit the disabled list with a strained lat muscle, and was then shut down with shoulder soreness after a May 24 rehab start in Triple-A Tacoma. Paxton returned on August 2 and has pitched well in all seven of his starts - not allowing more than two earned runs in any of them. Paxton's fastball tops out at 99 mph but usually hangs in the 94-95 range. His ERA (1.87) is golden despite the small sample size but a 3.25 xFIP alludes to a touch of good luck. Nonetheless, Paxton won't be discounted next season the way Corey Kluber was this year (or at least he shouldn't be). Paxton should take the mound three more times this year - his next two matchups will be tough ones against division rivals Oakland and the Angels.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Hitters: Luis Valbuena (3B, CHC), Matt Holliday (OF, STL), Howie Kendrick (2B, LAA), Ben Revere (OF, PHI)
Pitchers: Jarred Cosart (SP, MIA), Jake Peavy (SP, SF), Danny Salazar (SP, CLE), Alex Wood (SP, ATL)
Not Falling For It: Donovan Solano (2B, MIA), Clay Buchholz (SP, BOS)

FALLERS

Miguel Montero (C, ARI) - Montero has had a decent bounce-back 2014 and has produced admirably for his NFBC ADP of 209.54 (the 14^th catcher off draft boards). Montero has had ample opportunity to drive in runs and has done a decent job of it - 13 HR and 71 RBI, but his batting average has fallen to .254. The most concerning thing about Montero is that his power has fallen off completely - 11 HR before the All-Star break, and only two homers since. Montero has reduced his strikeout-percentage from last year (23% to 18%) and has maintained a walk-rate around 11% in consecutive seasons. The Diamondbacks have struggled offensively since the Paul Goldschmidt injury and unfortunately it's just been a lost season for guys like Montero, Mark Trumbo and Aaron Hill, who has been a complete bust. Montero might have some value as a second catcher in drafts next year, but he's a 31-year-old catcher with an injury history. Nothing to see here.

Jedd Gyorko (2B, SD) - Gyorko is definitely one of the biggest bust stories of the 2014 season. Gyorko missed almost two months of the season with plantar fasciitis, but does not look like anything resembling a major league hitter in the Padres lineup. Gyorko remains under the Mendoza Line (a .197 BA) through 360 PA with an inexcusable .260 OBP and strikes out in nearly a quarter of his at-bats this year. Gyorko has scored a paltry 25 runs this year with only nine home runs. Gyorko had a NFBC ADP of 108 this year, the eighth second basemen off the board behind one of this year's best fantasy players, Jose Altuve. Gyorko, a former second round pick in the 2010 draft, will be heavily discounted next fantasy season, and rightfully so. But Gyorko does have raw power, is still only 25-years-old and should not be completely counted out. PETCO Park won't help said power though.

Logan Morrison (OF, SEA) - Morrison almost feels like a waste of space to even write about because he hasn't really been fantasy relevant in three years. Morrison is better known as a social media darling (Twitter, to be exact) than a baseball player. Morrison showed promise in his second season with the Marlins, slugging 23 homers albeit with a weak .247 batting average. This year, he was given a second chance on a new team. He spent nearly two months out of the lineup with yet another injury but surprisingly had a hot August where he hit .302 including a 20-game stretch where he recorded a hit in all but one game - but it was an empty average (1 HR, 1 SB, 9 RBI). Morrison has cooled in September, hitting .214 with only one run scored and one batted in. Morrison doesn't help in any specific category and can easily be dropped in your league. Don't expect any late season heroics down the stretch.

Scott Kazmir (SP, OAK) - Kazmir has been excellent this season - but his latest stretch is making us all forget about his success and curse his name as he hinders our attempts to finish our fantasy years strong. Kazmir has hit a speed bump of late, and his arm may be going through a dead period at the wrong time. Over his last three starts, Kazmir has allowed 16 ER (in 10.2 IP). Two of those starts were against the Angels, who clobbered him for seven earned runs in three innings last Sunday and six earned in 1.1 the week prior. Kazmir appears to have gone completely off the deep end since the All-Star break - a 3-4 record with a 5.96 ERA compared to 2.38 with an 11-3 record before the break. Kazmir lines up against the White Sox in Comerica this week, which will be a huge test of whether or not to roll Kazmir out for a week 25 home two-step against the Rangers and Phillies.

Rafael Soriano (RP, WAS) - Soriano is yet another pitcher who has fallen apart after the All-Star break. Soriano is currently out of the closers role and the Nats intend to go with a committee-by-situation with Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard the frontrunners. Storen received the first opportunity on Sunday and recorded the save. As for Soriano, he was one of the best closers in baseball from April to June - a 0.97 ERA with 22 saves with opponents hitting a measly .153 against him. Since the break, they're hitting .325 off of Soriano and he blew consecutive save opportunities last week. The Nationals do not need the drama so close to the end of the season and are smart to address the situation head-on. Soriano will have the opportunity to reclaim his role, but you may recall that Soriano already appeared on the decline last year after seeing his K/9 drop from 9.2 in 2012 to just 6.9 last year. My guess is that Storen locks in on ninth inning duties and runs with it.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Hitters: Allen Craig (OF, BOS), Stephen Vogt (UT, OAK), Matt Joyce (OF, TB), Jon Singleton (1B, HOU)
Pitchers: Rick Porcello (SP, DET), Mike Leake (SP, CIN), Doug Fister (SP, WAS), Casey Janssen (RP, TOR)
Not Falling For It: Yasiel Puig (OF, LAD), Sonny Gray (SP, OAK)