Mound Musings: Arms to Watch in the NL East

This second installment of pitchers to watch heading into the 2015 season moves over to the National League East. Over the coming weeks, I'll throw out a few names, by division, to consider for your mound corps. The objective is uncovering value. Lower cost with upside is the key. Let's get right to it with:

Seven Arms to Watch in the NL East

Noah Syndergaard (NYM) - He's not quite as far along on the development ladder compared to Kevin Gausman, who stood in this spot for last week's analysis of the AL East, but he has a similar ceiling. Usually, that high ceiling would drive the price tag up, but Syndergaard may be protected a bit by his rather pedestrian numbers in Triple-A last season. Pitching in the hitter's heaven Pacific Coast League in Las Vegas, some bad luck and a couple minor injuries contributed to a lackluster 1.48 WHIP and a 4.60 ERA. Don't be fooled. This guy is an elite prospect and is very close to arriving in the show. There's a good chance he'll start the year back in the minors, but he should be in line for a full slate of innings, and he has top-of-the-rotation tools for the Mets and your fantasy team. He can contribute this year, and in keeper leagues, he's gold.

Matt Harvey (NYM) - The Mets have at least three reasons for fans to be anticipating glory days ahead. Harvey, Syndergaard (see above) and Zack Wheeler could one day bring back memories of names like Seaver, Koosman and Ryan. Harvey missed last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and Syndergaard is still climbing the ladder while Wheeler has yet to hit his best stride, but it's coming and Harvey might be the king of the hill. Back in 2013 before he blew out his elbow, he was easily clicking the gun in the upper 90s while dazzling the league with a 0.93 WHIP, a 2.27 ERA and 191 strikeouts over 178 innings. That was 16 months ago, and there could be a bit of rust, but he is expected to be ready for Opening Day. The Mets are expected to manage his workload with shorter outings, which could limit his win total and overall value to soften his draft day price tag somewhat, but his 2013 debut was genuine and he will help his fantasy owners.

Stephen Strasburg (WAS) - I'll be honest -- there's a good chance he will be full price on draft day. Exceptional pitchers who fail to live up to superhuman expectations can sometimes come at a modest discount on draft day, depending on the level of "what have you done for me today" mentality among your co-owners. That's what I would be hoping for here, though Strasburg is still seen as a shining star by many. The Nationals are a strong team, yet he didn't get a lot of run support and posted a mediocre 14-11 record last season. He posted a solid WHIP (1.12) and a decent ERA (3.14), which are generally very appealing, but not what he is capable of. The 242 strikeouts in 215 innings will certainly drive his price tag up, but there is always the chance he won't go as a top-5 starting pitcher, and that is what he could and probably will provide.

Mike Minor (ATL) - Minor put his name on the map with a sparkling 2013 season (13-9, with a 1.09 WHIP and a 3.21 ERA), so he was a popular pick going into last year. He wasn't quite ready for the start of the season after some shoulder issues, and he got off to a slow start. He showed some glimpses of better things, but he never really got it all together and ended up with disappointing numbers (6-12, with a 1.44 WHIP and a poor 4.77 ERA). Regular readers saw the red lights flashing with the "shoulder issues" comment so there is risk involved, but I think his price could be low enough to make the risk palatable. I don't think he will serve up 2013 numbers, but he should be better than last year if he stays healthy and something in between 2013 and 2014 is realistic. Don't overpay, but if you can get him to fill a spot at the back of your rotation, he might be someone to consider.

Gio Gonzalez (WAS) - I like this one. Yes, that "shoulder" word pops up here, but I think Gonzalez might be able to put the barking shoulder issues behind him. His throwing shoulder acted up on and off last year, limiting his innings, and at least to some extent, his effectiveness. While he seemed to be throwing free and easy when he felt good, his command wasn't quite as sharp and that lead to some shorter outings. They changed his pitch mix with fewer curveballs and more changeups, and it seemed to be a boost to his overall effectiveness. I look for that to continue, and maybe improve, this year, and with names like Strasburg, Zimmermann and Fister on the Nationals scorecard ahead of his, there is a chance Gonzalez could be slightly overlooked on draft day. In a lot of leagues, owners just don't look past the second or third starter on a team's rotation. Don't expect 2012 numbers, but if he can in fact forget about the shoulder woes, he could be a very nice value proposition for 2015.

Jarred Cosart (MIA) - In South Florida all the talk is still about Jose Fernandez, a true blue chipper, but he won't be back from Tommy John surgery until about midseason, so I had to go looking for someone else to consider as a possible value buy. Cosart came over from Houston in July last year and underscored the better defense and more pitcher-friendly ballpark angles. He's something of a Rick Porcello type with a heavy fastball that induces a lot of groundballs and a mediocre strikeout rate, but he doesn't have the same command of the strike zone all of which move him into the back-of-the-rotation category. That means you have to be sure to keep the price down, but if he continues to refine his control and takes a step forward, he could offer some reasonable value. With Houston he posted a 1.46 WHIP and a 4.41 ERA while improving to a 1.19 WHIP and a 2.39 ERA with Miami. Expect his 2015 numbers to be somewhere between with a slightly better strikeout rate.

Aaron Nola (PHI) - I can usually find at least one pitcher on every MLB staff to promote as a possible value play, but I struggled with the 2015 Phillies. I'm not sure Cole Hamels will even be with the Phillies as they expand their rebuilding program, and even if he is, the bidding will probably at least accurately reflect his value. Cliff Lee suffered through elbow inflammation and bouts of ineffectiveness last season and may be losing his edge making him likely to be overpriced on draft day based on reputation. The others likely to be in the rotation on Opening Day offer little, if any, upside, so I am dipping into their minor league system. Nola is the class of their pitching prospects (by a long way), and he isn't too far from the show. He put up solid numbers between High-A and Double-A last year (2.93 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 55 innings). He's not likely to ever be an ace, but he can be a reliable option for fantasy owners who won't hurt you, and with the rebuilding timeline likely to accelerate in Philly this year, he will probably be in town shortly after he passes the arbitration clock hurdle.

The Endgame Odyssey

Here we'll cover some notes and observations on the closer scenarios across baseball. Over these six weeks, the focus will be on the division featured in the arms to watch.

Atlanta's Craig Kimbrel likely will maintain his usual top closer position (or very close to it) on most draft-day depth charts, and deservedly so. Barring 0injury, he should continue to ring up saves and strikeouts with Jason Grilli his new backup. ... Steve Cishek begins the season as the favorite for saves in Miami, but the Marlins actually have some alternatives, including an intriguing sleeper I will be watching, Aaron Crow. ... There were again rumors that closer Jonathan Papelbon might leave Philadelphia, but he's still there and still the end-game choice. The Phillies would love to move him, but his contract remains a major barrier. If they can peddle him, Ken Giles has earned a look as his replacement. ... In Washington, Drew Storen reclaimed the job late last season, and has no apparent challengers. I seem to like him more than most analysts, but hey, all he does is get it done. They did sign former Jays closer Casey Janssen, but he has been in decline and should only be an emergency option. ... Finally, the Mets have end-game options something like their rotation -- a lot of potentially capable arms. On-and-off closer Bobby Parnell is supposedly the guy with an early edge, but he is recovering from injuries and has never really staked a claim. Jenrry Mejia did a solid job last year, and I think he'll have to give the job back to lose it, while the guy I actually like slightly better, Jeurys Familia, also looms in the wings.

Next week we'll look at Seven Arms to Watch in the AL Central.